Morningstar DBRS has become the latest agency to reaffirm the Greek economy’s ‘BBB’ credit rating, maintaining a stable outlook. The Canadian-based firm cited balanced risks and noted that the country’s economic and fiscal performance has remained resilient throughout the past year.
“Fiscal developments benefitted not only from cyclical tailwinds, but also from structural reforms which raised tax compliance and, as a result, bolstered public revenues,” Morningstar said in its report.
It added that “Greece’s BBB credit ratings are underpinned by the improved financial condition of the domestic banking sector, the country’s credible policy framework, and its membership of the European Union and euro area.”
DBRS aligns with the “big three” rating agencies on the Greek economy
The report follows the “Big Three”—Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s, and Fitch— which all align with the positive sentiment expressed by DBRS.
While the specific terminology varies slightly between agencies, the overarching narrative is consistent: Greece’s sovereign credit profile has undergone a structural transformation. The general view across the board is that the country is no longer the “high-risk” outlier it was a decade ago.
All agencies highlight the rapid decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio. It is consistently viewed as being on a sustainable downward path, bolstered by strong primary surpluses.
There is collective praise for the banking sector’s cleanup, specifically regarding the drastic reduction in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and the strengthening of capital buffers.
Challenges for the Greek economy
While the outlook is stable across the board, the agencies are not without caution. When they look at the horizon, they often point to similar “structural headwinds” that prevent them from upgrading Greece even further at this stage:
Demographics: Almost all reports mention that Greece’s aging population and shrinking workforce create long-term pressure on potential economic growth and pension sustainability.
Post-RRF Growth: There is a shared question about what happens when the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF) support eventually tapers off. Agencies are waiting to see if the private sector investment will be enough to sustain momentum without that specific EU-driven engine.
External Vulnerabilities: Given Greece’s reliance on tourism and imports, agencies remain watchful of geopolitical tensions or energy price shocks that could widen the current account deficit.
If the Morningstar DBRS report feels optimistic, it’s because it mirrors the wider market sentiment. Greece is widely viewed as a “stable” investment-grade sovereign.
The current “Stable” outlooks from S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch essentially suggest that they believe the current fiscal trajectory is safe, but they are looking for further evidence of sustained, independent growth—beyond the current European-funded cycle—before considering further upgrades.
Related: Can Greece’s Economy Thrive as EU Funds Taper Off in 2026?