As 2025 draws to a close, a growing sense of political unease seems to dominate the Greek political landscape. The government will begin the new year rattled by unresolved crises and declining public confidence, while the opposition struggles to gain any momentum. What lies ahead is widely seen as a decisive year. Definitely a pre-election year, if not an electoral one, shaped by mounting speculation about new political parties and a reshuffling of the political deck.
Can the governing New Democracy withstand the combined weight of rising living costs and political scandals? When will Alexis Tsipras formally announce his long-anticipated return to party politics? And will figures such as Antonis Samaras or Maria Karystianou move to reshape the political field altogether?
Many believe that the answers to all those questions will be unveiled in 2026. Whether the year delivers elections or merely sets the stage for them, it is increasingly viewed as a turning point that could redefine party alignments, test the durability of established leaderships and determine the terms of Greece’s next electoral battle.
A government under pressure
The government ends the year under the shadow of sustained social and political pressure, with farmer mobilizations setting the tone of the final days of 2025. How those protests evolve and how effectively they are managed from the prime minister’s office will shape the government’s footing as the new year begins. Assumptions that the ongoing farmer blockades and protests will not significantly impact the governments popularity or that traditionally these type of protests rarely determine electoral outcomes may prove less secure than they appear.
This time, the demonstrations unfold alongside the OPEKEPE scandal, which has resonated beyond political circles and damaged the image of the Mitsotakis government. The episode has revived broader debates about governance and accountability, while its more surreal elements have taken on a life of their own on social media. Against this backdrop, the significance of farmer unrest is difficult to dismiss, particularly given that New Democracy secured nearly half of the agricultural vote in the last election.
For Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, 2026 represents a final window of opportunity to pursue the party’s declared objective: an outright majority. Whether this will be achieved in the first, second or even third electoral round is secondary. What ultimately matters is how close New Democracy can come to the threshold required to ensure a majority. Throughout 2025, voting intention hovered in the mid-20s, rising to nearly 30% in projected estimates. Without a substantial and sustained rise, the narrative of self-reliance risks losing credibility.
The prime minister still has political tools at his disposal, but also faces structural weaknesses. Chief among them is the cost-of-living crisis. Rising prices, particularly in supermarkets, continue to weigh heavily on households. High-profile government measures have failed to deliver meaningful relief, and for many families, monthly expenses have become unmanageable. No issue rivals inflation in its daily impact on voters’ lives.
Other problems persist, but none cut as deeply. As economic strain intensifies, government scandals involving political insiders further erode trust. For a large segment of the public, the administration increasingly appears familiar in the least flattering sense, indistinguishable from past governments and stripped of any moral advantage. Polling consistently reflects this mood, with most citizens believing the country is on the wrong track and expressing concern about their personal prospects.
A political deck reshuffled
Against this backdrop, current polling numbers may ultimately matter less than the prospect of new political formations. Any realistic discussion of single-party rule would effectively end if even one of the rumored new parties materializes, namely a party by Antonis Samaras or a party by Maria Karystianou who lost her daughter during the Tempi train disaster.
A party founded by former PM Samaras would draw largely from the same electoral base as New Democracy. The latest polling data suggest a limited but politically consequential appeal, especially particularly among right-wing voters, with the potential Samaras party garnering support around 5-9%. Such a development would unsettle the whole conservative bloc, putting pressure on parties to the right of New Democracy (such as Kyriakos Velopoulos Greek Solution and Afroditi Latinopoulou’s Voice of Reason parties) while simultaneously depriving the ruling party of the narrow margins required for an outright majority.
The equation becomes even more complex in the case of a party led by Maria Karystianou. Widely viewed as untainted and enjoying high public recognition, she registers striking levels of potential support, even exceeding that of a hypothetical Tsipras party. More notable than the headline figures, however, is the breadth of her appeal. Support spans the ideological spectrum, cutting across left, center-left, centrist and right-leaning voters alike. A Karystianou-led party would not merely shift balances at the edges; it would disrupt the political field on all fronts.
Such a development would also reshape the space currently occupied by anti-systemic parties. While these dynamics would inevitably complicate the prospects of a Tsipras-led formation, launching a viable political party remains a formidable task, one that extends well beyond personal popularity.
Paradoxically, a fragmented political environment could reinforce New Democracy’s centrality. In a divided landscape, the party would remain indispensable to any governing arrangement. This logic holds even if no new parties emerge. A potential new party led by former PM Alexis Tsipras, which is all but confirmed, will be competing directly with PASOK for the role of official opposition and would produce a similar outcome: two mid-sized formations, roughly aligned in strength and far removed from first place, unless an unforeseen political shock intervenes.
The center-left contest
The rivalry between a potential Tsipras party and PASOK is shaping up as one of the most closely watched battles of 2026. Polling offers little reassurance to Tsipras’ allies, particularly among centrist voters, where resistance to his return runs deep. The data suggest that any remaining room for growth lies to his left, raising questions about whether he can reunify the remnants of SYRIZA, let alone mobilize new or politically disengaged voters. So far, there are few signs of a broader groundswell.
PASOK, for its part, enters the contest as an established party with organizational depth, defined policy positions and the institutional advantage of serving as the official opposition. Its leadership appears largely untroubled by the prospect of a Tsipras comeback. Still, for PASOK’s strategic ambitions to materialize, 2026 will need to deliver measurable gains. Without movement in the polling needle, aspirations of emerging narrowly ahead at the ballot box will remain largely theoretical. A pivotal moment will be the party’s congress, expected toward the end of March.
A decisive year ahead
Taken together, the coming year promises to be unusually consequential for Greek politics. With or without new parties, 2026 is widely expected to mark a turning point, one that will determine not only who competes for power, but under what terms, and with what degree of legitimacy.