Shares in Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) declined by more than 23% in a confusing week for shareholders. The company released its fourth-quarter earnings, which were in line with what management had already told investors it estimated they would be a month earlier. However, the damage was done the day before the earnings release thanks to an analyst downgrade.
Given the rarity of Wall Street analysts giving sell recommendations, when an analyst at a heavyweight company like Citi issues one, then the market takes notice. The analyst’s concerns about profitability are justified, not least because the company remains loss-making. With cryptocurrencies under pressure (Bitcoin and Ethereum are both down more than 20% in 2026 as I write), it’s hard to see the company making a near-term quantum leap in profitability.
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The company is struggling to grow transaction revenue, as falling cryptocurrency prices tend to discourage trading. Overall transaction revenue declined 17% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, and by more than 1% to $98 million for the full year.
However, its full-year services revenue grew from $30.1 million in 2024 to $64.6 million in 2025, led by a near-tripling in credit card revenue to $33.1 million. As such, total revenue grew by 26% to $179.6 million. However, a massive increase in operating expenses from $308 million to $525 million, and total “other income” items generated a $243 million loss for the full-year helping take the company to a whopping $583 million net loss for 2025.
The other income items include loan-related losses, loan interest expense, and unfavorable changes in loan value. As a reminder, Gemini Space Station, run by the management team of Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, “regularly enters into lending agreements with Winklevoss Capital Fund, LLC (“WCF”), a related party through common ownership,” according to the company’s SEC filings.
The stock may interest cryptocurrency bulls, but for most other investors, it’s probably worth avoiding.
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