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Core Natural Resources, Inc. previously reported Q4 2025 results showing sales of US$1,042.47 million and a net loss of US$78.98 million, while also declaring a US$0.10 per share quarterly dividend payable in March 2026 and completing a US$224.29 million buyback of 3,088,520 shares.
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Alongside these mixed results, the company issued 2026 sales volume guidance of 85.6 million to 91.4 million tons and highlighted expanded, margin-supportive coal contracts and restored mine operations as the basis for improved free cash flow and continued capital returns.
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We’ll now assess how Core Natural Resources’ 2026 sales guidance and resumed capital returns reshape the company’s investment narrative and risk profile.
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To own Core Natural Resources, you have to believe that restored mine operations, a heavier 2026 contract book, and higher guided sales volumes can translate into stronger free cash flow, even after a year of losses. The key near term catalyst is whether 2026 production and cost execution actually track to guidance, while the largest immediate risk is that coal demand and pricing fail to support the margin improvement the company is framing around its volume outlook.
The most relevant update here is Core’s 2026 sales volume guidance of 85.6 million to 91.4 million tons, which sits at the center of its “free cash flow inflection” message. This guidance, coupled with expanded coal contracts that management characterizes as margin supportive, is where the recent dividend and completed US$224.29 million buyback ultimately need to be funded from, making execution against these tonnage and cost targets central to the near term story.
Yet beneath the positive guidance, investors should be aware of the risk that tightening climate policy and coal phase outs could eventually…
Read the full narrative on Core Natural Resources (it’s free!)
Core Natural Resources’ narrative projects $5.1 billion revenue and $920.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 15.9% yearly revenue growth and about an $899.8 million earnings increase from $20.6 million today.
Uncover how Core Natural Resources’ forecasts yield a $114.75 fair value, a 25% upside to its current price.
Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue of about US$4.8 billion and earnings of roughly US$493.6 million by 2028, so you should expect their more pessimistic view on long term coal demand and regulatory pressure to be tested again as this new 2026 guidance and capital return story filters into fresh forecasts.