The NBA MVP race was completely flipped on its head over the weekend.
During what was supposed to be a showcase between two leading candidates on Friday night, Lakers star Luka Dončić suffered a hamstring injury while battling against reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder. Soon after he limped off the floor the reports rolled in: Dončić would miss the remainder of the regular season for Los Angeles with his playoff status in doubt. It’s obviously a devastating blow for his team after the purple-and-gold dominated in March, and it stung even worse with the following day’s news that Austin Reaves would join Dončić on the sideline for a similar duration.
Add us as a preferred source on GoogleIt also eliminated Dončić from postseason award consideration due to games played. As it stands the Lakers star has played 64 games—one short of the 65-game minimum requirement to win any end-of-season awards. He plans to apply for an exception due to the fact that he missed two games early in the year for a family matter, but until the NBA issues a ruling on that Dončić is ineligible for MVP, All-NBA and all the other season honors.
In the past a late injury like this would put a dent in Dončić’s MVP case. In our current reality, it completely takes his name off the list of candidates with only a week to go before the season ends and ballots must be cast. He joins fellow stars Cade Cunningham and Anthony Edwards as big names who might’ve received MVP consideration if not for the 65-game rule.
We recently checked in on how the MVP race was shaping up entering the final stretch of the NBA season. In light of the Dončić injury development, it makes sense to do so again. Here’s how the MVP race is looking as we embark upon the last days of the regular season.
5. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
68 games played, 27.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 5.7 apg, 47.9 FG%, 36.5 3P%, 86.4 FT%
Dončić dropping out of the race means there’s one extra spot to fill in the top-five voting. Mitchell gets the nod as a result. The Cavaliers star has been his usually stellar self offensively despite the heavy roster turnover Cleveland experienced this year. In every iteration of this year’s Cavs—with and without Darius Garland, with and without James Harden, with and without Jarrett Allen—Mitchell lived up to his reputation as one of the NBA’s most explosive, exciting scorers. He’s also averaging the second-most assists of his career and ranks fifth in the NBA with six 40-point games.
Mitchell hasn’t enjoyed the kind of all-around excellent season his fellow candidates have. But he makes for an easy choice as the final name on this year’s ballot. The Cavs desperately needed him to perform throughout the season and he consistently stepped up to the plate.
4. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
68 games played, 28.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.3 apg, 47.5 FG%, 34.5 3P%, 79.7 FT%
Brown gets a bump up the ballot due to Dončić’s absence, and it’s deserved. The Celtics superstar has the strongest MVP case outside of the top three candidates after carrying Boston to a top-two seed despite starting the season with an unrecognizable rotation compared to last year. He has the counting stats and wins to rightly clamor for recognition on the MVP ballot.
The return of Jayson Tatum took away the possibility Brown could make a late-season push to finish near the top of the ballot. But he hasn’t really missed a beat. Brown is averaging 28.2 points per game when suiting up alongside Tatum so far and his assists per game have actually ticked up compared to his season average. It was the best season of Brown’s career and he earned this recognition, even if he’s a few steps behind the leaders in the MVP clubhouse.
3. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
62 games played, 24.9 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 3.1 bpg, 50.9 FG%, 35.0 3P%, 82.8 FT%
Wembanyama’s MVP case was plenty strong when he elected to spell it out for prospective voters a few weeks ago. Since then he’s only gotten better. In the five games since he first advocated for MVP, Wembanyama has scored 31.6 points and pulled down 16.4 rebounds per night. The Spurs star is backing up everything he said and rose to the moment on Saturday in a rare opportunity to clash with a fellow MVP candidate, putting up a ridiculous line of 34 points, 18 rebounds, seven assists and five blocks in an overtime loss to Nikola Jokić’s Nuggets. His talent and per-minute production are undeniable when it comes to MVP consideration.
But the weak spots in his candiacy haven’t changed. Wembanyama has played over 350 fewer minutes than Jokić and SGA. He has the least all-around impact on the offensive end as a playmaker (even if his “gravity” is real). And, despite the recent scoring outburst, Wembanyama will still finish well below of what voters consider to be the bar for modern MVP candidates based on the last 10 years. San Antonio’s superstar will be in this conversation on an annual basis as long as he’s healthy but Wembanyama isn’t quite there yet when stacked up against the two players ahead of him.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
65 games played, 31.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 6.5 apg, 55.1 FG%, 38.0 3P%, 88.1 FT%
There is no flaw in Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP case this season as one of two players to average over 30 points per game, the leading man on the best team in the NBA who makes an impact on both ends of the court. . The fact that he broke a few scoring records this season and kept a 60-win Thunder team afloat despite a steady diet of injuries dealt to his best teammates round it all out very nicely. SGA is the most dangerous scorer in the league on a possession-to-possession basis and it’s difficult to see OKC in pole position without his talents buoying the roster night after night.
Wrap all that up into the fact that SGA was, by far, the leader of ESPN’s latest straw poll and it seems all but inevitable he’ll be a two-time MVP sooner rather than later. But in these rankings, he lands second. Because…
1. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
62 games played, 27.9 ppg, 12.9 rpg, 10.9 apg, 57.1 FG%, 38.3 3P%, 82.7 FT%
Jokić is on the verge of becoming the second player in NBA history to lead the league in rebounds and assists.
It’s a fact that hasn’t gotten nearly enough recognition during the MVP race. Yes, Jokić’s case isn’t ironclad the same way SGA’s is due to a rocky midseason stretch (and generally uneven results in Denver). But a center leading the league in rebounds and assists is outrageous. And it’s not even close!
Jokić is averaging one full more rebound and assist per game than the next-highest players in each respective category. He will finish as one of four players to hit 800 rebounds; the other three have played at least 10 more games. Jokić’s 673 (and counting) total assists lap the field, with Cunningham checking in with 603 in second place. It will not surprise you to learn that Wilt Chamberlain was the last player to accomplish this feat over 60 years ago.
The Denver star is also making a late push for serious consideration. He won an MVP statement game against Wembanyama on Saturday, finishing with 40 points and 13 assists while hitting his signature fadeaway jumper over the equally iconic outstretched arms of Wemby. In the last 10 games Jokić is averaging a triple-double of 25.5 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 12.7 assists. He’s doing what he can to shove his greatness directly into all of our faces.
SGA is an extremely deserving candidate who broke his own Chamberlain record this year. It’d be a shame if he wasn’t rewarded with an MVP. But Jokić leading the league in those categories and not winning MVP would be an even bigger shame. So, for us, he’s sitting atop the leaderboard entering the last week of the season.
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