How would you characterize this season for Illinois? Was it a success? Failure? Somewhere in the middle?
“This question is extremely interesting and fair and here is why. If anybody had told Illinois fans that the football program under Bret Bielema’s leadership would provide three late December/New Year’s Eve or Day bowl bids (2022, 2024 and 2025) with a 8-win season, a 10-win season and another 8/9-win season, they’d have thought they were being handed the best lottery ticket ever. Let me put this in the proper perspective, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign has been playing organized tackle football for 136 years and Bielema is the first head coach in the university’s history to win at eight games in a season three separate times.
“So, you would think that a 8-4 regular season and a late December bowl bid would have this fan base incredibly happy because they’re seeing arguably the most successful four-year period in program history or at least in their lifetime if they’re anything around my age (I’m 41).
“Well, not so fast.
“In the days leading up to the Illini defeating South Carolina in the 2024 Citrus Bowl almost one year ago to the day, Bielema started talking about how the 2025 roster he was retaining and filling in with economically-sound transfer portal pieces was quoting him “College Football Playoff possible” and then nationally pundits began to play the schedule game with Illinois’ 2025 slate and began to refer to the Illini as the “darkhorse College Football Playoff contender” even though as we’re learning now in a 12-team format where you either have to be a mighty fortunate 11-1 or an elite 10-2 with a previous reputation or a Top 5-10 win, getting in the CFP from a power conference is really, really difficult.
“However, a lot of Illini fans decided to take Bielema at his word about the whole CFP thing and now, in 2025, a 8-4 regular season when it includes a 63-10 loss at Indiana, a non-competitive home loss to Ohio State and non-competitive road losses to Washington and Wisconsin, the bloom of this “Let’s just be a consistent 8-9 win program” rose might have happened despite the fact this Illinois roster talent suggests it might be a 7-5/8-4 football team.
“So, this is a long way to suggest that there’s a divide among this fanbase about what Illinois should be in this new pay-for-play era, in a 18-team Big Ten Conference and especially with the older fanbase that might still care more about the basketball program than the football operation across the street. It should be considered a successful season. It’s probably ridiculous to consider it a failure (although some of our subscribers at IlliniGuys.com do) and it’s probably somewhere in the middle but there’s still not an intense need from those in power at Illinois or boosters to financially get Illinois into the CFP conversation a la Indiana, Ole Miss or Texas Tech.”
Tennessee fans know a bit about QB Luke Altmyer after the scramble to replace Nico Iamaleava in the spring. How has he played this year? How big of a deal is it that he’s playing in the bowl game?
“So, Tennessee folks are finally willing to admit their boosters will willing to make Luke Altmyer the highest paid player in college football for the 2025 season huh? I’m sorry but I covered that drama for IlliniGuys.com with several inside sources where the financial numbers of what Altmyer, his family and his representation were offered to get the former Ole Miss and current multi-year starter at Illinois into the portal was just as insane as you can probably imagine it being.
“In short, Luke Altmyer has been fantastic for the last two seasons at Illinois. I just detailed the lack of winning in the Illinois program in my lifetime but overall, this is a program that has produced highly successful quarterbacks historically when you look at Jack Trudeau, Tony Eason, Jeff George, Kurt Kittner, Nathan Scheelhaase and Isaiah ‘Juice’ Williams. Altmyer, who was completely broken mentally when he arrived as a transfer from the Lane Kiffin experience at Ole Miss, will go down as one of the best quarterbacks in program history. Altmyer is looking to join Nathan Scheelhaase as the only starting quarterbacks in Illinois history to win two bowl games. Altmyer’s 64.5 percent (612/949) career completion percentage at Illinois is currently the best in program history. He is the first quarterback in program history to throw 20 or more touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. He’s been on time with his throws and hasn’t held on to the football too long (his bugaboo at Illinois in 2023 and sometimes in 2024). He’s led Illinois on six game-winning drives in the final minute/OT from 2023-25, the most of any QB in the nation. He’s been everything that the Illinois coaches could have hoped for when they pulled him out of the transfer portal in Dec. 2022 because he had the audacity to lose the Ole Miss starting quarterback job to Jaxson Dart.
“The fact that he’s playing in this bowl game shouldn’t shock a lot of folks because he wants to be drafted and one more solid performance against a SEC defense (even a maligned one with youthful secondary pieces starting and an interim defensive coordinator) should propel him before a pro day and a combine performance into being very draft-worthy this spring. The fact is there’s still a lot of Illini fans of a certain age who wish this sport would transform itself back to about 1995 where players weren’t paid and bowl opt outs aren’t a thing but that attitude is slowly fazing out every year Illinois makes a bowl game in December. The fact is, if Altmyer wasn’t playing on Tuesday, I don’t see a scenario where Illinois has any shot of winning whatsoever.”
How many key pieces for Illinois will miss this game due to declaring for the draft or transferring?
“The Illini’s best pass rusher – Gabe Jacas – has opted out and that leaves a serious void when it comes to disrupting the quarterback. Matthew Bailey, a key leader as a safety, is out due to having offseason surgery instead of waiting until after the bowl game because Bailey has an outside chance of either getting drafted or (because he took care of his shoulder issue that he’s played through all season) can be healthy for spring practice. The left tackle, J.C. Davis, who has started each of the last 25 games for Illinois since transferring in from New Mexico, has opted out and redshirt freshman Nathan Knapik, who transferred in from Idaho last winter, will be making his first collegiate start. Those are the only key players who are not playing Tuesday as Bielema (who has been known to be cagey with his injury reports) said everybody is qualified and healthy to go.”
What do you think will be the key to success for Illinois in this game?
“The keys, as I see it, are going to be figuring out how the 13th-best rushing attack in a 18-team Big Ten can have some success running the football on offense to make sure it’s not all on Luke Altmyer and the passing game to make things happen and then being able to get off the field defensively on third downs. Illinois has had one of the nation’s best third-down defenses this season and it’s bit them badly in road losses at Washington and Wisconsin. It hasn’t been about getting to a 3rd-and-8 situation for Aaron Henry’s defense, it’s been about containing the middle of the field options when the third-down scenario comes about.”
How do you see this game playing out?
“I keep trying to figure out why the betting line has massively moved toward Illinois over the last two weeks and I think I have an answer. While his numbers are impressive without context, I’m not sure Joey Aguilar is the best quarterback in the stadium on Tuesday and is capable of (without his leading, All-SEC receiving target) taking over a game against a quality opponent with a defensive-minded head coach. I think if Illinois can limit the big plays and get off the field on third down, you’re likely to see a Tennessee defense get challenged with physicality and RPO counters of a Barry Lunney Jr. offensive scheme. Similarly to last year, I actually like Illinois’ chances if they can make sure not to get down 14-0, 17-0 early because trying to play catch-up against Tennessee is a fool’s errand. If Tennessee can get stops early, they can get the momentum of this game and Illinois, when it becomes a one-dimensional offense (while still effectively) may not be able to wrangle the game back. I’m also fascinated at what the dynamic of the crowd on Tuesday will be as obviously this game is in the Volunteer State but I don’t know how many Vols fans want to make their way to Nashville for a glorified exhibition game, while Illini fans will really want this SEC scalp on its wall for a second straight year.”