View of Athens. INSETE forecasts resilient growth across Greece’s key inbound tourism markets in 2026.
Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States and other core inbound markets for Greece are expected to remain resilient in 2026 despite heightened geopolitical tensions and renewed trade protectionism, according to a new report by INSETE, the research institute of the Greek Tourism Confederation (SETE).
In its latest analysis of global economic developments and the performance of countries that generate inbound tourism to Greece, INSETE projects that key source markets will maintain positive growth momentum next year, supported by steady consumption and improving financial conditions.
Although 2025 was marked by a shift in US trade policy and higher tariffs, global trade expanded by 3.6 percent and global GDP by 3.2 percent, reflecting continued resilience across major economies.
Outlook for Greece’s key tourism markets
International air arrivals to Greece increased across major source markets in 2025, with further economic support expected in 2026, INSETE reports.
Within this macroeconomic backdrop, INSETE forecasts differentiated but broadly positive growth across Greece’s main inbound tourism markets in 2026.
The EU-20 economy is expected to grow by 1.4 percent, above the European Commission’s 1.2 percent forecast and the IMF’s 1.1 percent estimate.
According to INSETE, private consumption is projected to rise by 1.2 percent. In 2025, Greece recorded approximately 9.9 billion euros in tourism receipts from Eurozone countries – accounting for 41.7 percent of total inbound revenues including cruise – up 4.0 percent year-on-year. International air arrivals from Eurozone airports increased by 3.8 percent.
Germany, Greece’s largest individual source market, is projected to grow by 1.1 percent in 2026, with private consumption rising by 1.0 percent. Tourism receipts from Germany to Greece reached 3.8 billion euros in 2025 (16 percent of total revenues), up 2.2 percent, while air arrivals rose by 5.8 percent.
The UK economy is expected to expand by 1.1 percent in 2026, with consumption growth accelerating to 1.1 percent. The UK generated 3.7 billion euros in tourism receipts for Greece in 2025 (15.8 percent of total), marking an 18.5 percent increase year-on-year. Air arrivals from the UK rose by 3.5 percent.
France and Italy are forecast to grow by 0.8 percent and 0.9 percent respectively in 2026. Greece recorded 1.3 billion euros in receipts from each market in 2025, with revenues rising by 5.9 percent from France and 5.1 percent from Italy. Air arrivals increased by 0.8 percent from France and 4.2 percent from Italy.
The US economy is projected to grow by 1.9 percent. Tourism receipts from the US reached 1.7 billion euros in 2025 (7.3 percent of total), up 8.5 percent year-on-year, while air arrivals surged by 18.5 percent.
Key drivers shaping 2026
US fiscal expansion and monetary policy are expected to play a central role in shaping global economic conditions in 2026, according to INSETE.
In its report, INSETE identifies several global factors expected to influence economic conditions in 2026.
In the United States, the federal deficit is projected to reach 7.8 percent of GDP, supporting domestic and global demand. The Federal Reserve is expected to proceed with at least two rate cuts, while continued strength in equity markets could further support consumption through wealth effects.
Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy persists, following a Supreme Court decision overturning tariffs imposed earlier this year and the subsequent introduction of new measures subject to congressional approval within 150 days.
In Europe, new natural gas supply chains have been established following the halt of Russian deliveries, while oil and gas prices are projected to decline by 4.5 percent, easing transportation and production costs. Defence spending across Europe is expected to rise from 1.5 percent to more than 3.0 percent of GDP amid geopolitical tensions. Investment activity is also set to intensify as Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) projects accelerate ahead of the mechanism’s expiry in 2026.
INSETE cautions that the combination of expansionary policies and elevated stock market valuations could pose financial stability risks if asset bubbles emerge, while geopolitical developments remain an “ongoing source of uncertainty”.
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