Is APA a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on APA Corporation on Indirect Costs’s Substack by Nemčik. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on APA. APA Corporation’s share was trading at $40.80 as of March 24th. APA’s trailing and forward P/E were 9.80 and 17.86 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
APA Corporation, an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. APA represents a compelling bottom-cycle investment in the oil and gas sector, driven not merely by near-term crude price fluctuations but by a fundamental mispricing of a generational asset in Suriname and Guyana.
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The broader market has faced one of the highest risk premiums in recent memory, with geopolitical uncertainty paired with a global oil surplus that the International Energy Agency projected at nearly four million barrels per day in March 2026. While conventional wisdom might question investing in commodity producers amid a glut, APA’s strategic positioning and asset quality make it distinctive.
Early purchases in 2024 valued APA at an 8x P/E (or sub-4x unadjusted), providing a margin of safety while leaving upside optionality. In 2025, the company generated $4.5 billion in operating cash flow, up 26% from 2024, reduced net debt by $1.6 billion to $4.5 billion, repurchased $280 million of shares, and paid $360 million in dividends, demonstrating disciplined capital allocation and financial strength.
The centerpiece of APA’s upside is Block 58, or GranMorgu, a Tier-1, open-water, low-carbon offshore project in Suriname with estimated recoverable reserves of 750 million barrels and a breakeven of $35–$40 per barrel, substantially below North American onshore costs. By combining high-quality, low-cost assets with strong financial execution, APA is positioned to outperform, turning a deeply discounted, misunderstood company into a top-quartile asset in global oil production.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) by Magnus Ofstad in May 2025, which highlighted OXY’s low-cost Permian operations, diversified business model, and leadership in carbon capture. OXY’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 42.30% since our coverage. Nemčik shares a similar view but emphasizes APA Corporation’s generational offshore assets, disciplined capital allocation, and bottom-cycle opportunity.