Despite being an extremely volatile position in investors’ portfolios, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been a successful long-term investment. Shares have climbed 3,070% in the past decade (as of Feb. 27). But they trade 18% below their peak of $489.88 in December 2025.
Perhaps a new milestone is within reach. Can this electric vehicle (EV) stock rise about 150% from its current price of $402.51 to reach $1,000? There are two key variables that investors must think about.
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In 2025, Tesla generated $94.8 billion in revenue. That figure was down 3% year over year. At the same time, the business reported net income of $3.8 billion. This profit metric is 75% below the record from 2023. For Tesla’s stock to soar to $1,000 one day, it’s obvious that the business needs to make substantial progress as it relates to these fundamentals.
One the one hand, the company’s core activity of designing, building, and selling EVs has been operating from a position of weakness. The days of rapid growth and expanding margins are over. Competition is stiff, which pressures pricing power and differentiation. Plus, robust demand just isn’t there anymore.
But CEO Elon Musk doesn’t view this as a car company anymore. So, Tesla must start to make notable progress with its robotaxis, for instance, which are currently only running in two markets. If the robotaxi service goes live and gains adoption, with unsupervised rides, lower prices, and larger geographic areas, in more cities around the country and world, then Tesla could start to rake in more revenue and profits.
Moreover, if it can boost the production capacity of Optimus robots and start to sell large numbers of these machines to enterprises and consumers, the financial upside could be massive.
Success is far from guaranteed. Tesla has consistently overpromised and underdelivered in the past. Investors can’t assume that progress in artificial intelligence capabilities will be a magic pill.
The market is extremely certain, however, that Tesla will make good on its plans within a reasonable time frame. Its valuation reflects this extreme level of bullishness.
As of this writing, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 374. This nosebleed valuation is the variable that can get in the way of Tesla shares reaching $1,000. In other words, profits need to grow so much that the bottom-line gain can more than offset the eventual contraction of the P/E multiple.