Friday, February 13

James Harden’s frenzies, Jaden Ivey’s second chance and more NBA trends I’m watching


A couple of stars have instant chemistry. A cocksure point guard never learned about adjustment periods. And a second-draft candidate is in an ideal situation.

Let’s open the notebook to run through three new fits since last week’s NBA trade deadline that have caught my eye.

The new-look Cavaliers

The first pick-and-roll James Harden and Jarrett Allen ever ran together might have told us something.

Early in Harden’s introductory game with the Cleveland Cavaliers, his new center jogged to the right side of the court to set a screen for him. But his defender, rookie Maxime Raynaud, strayed from Allen too soon. The Kings were blitzing Harden, sending two guys at the dribbler.

Allen noticed.

Before laying the pick, he “slipped” it, drifting to the elbow and then rolling to the hoop. He received a pass from Harden, stepped to the basket and absorbed a smack down low for a couple of free throws.

This might be a sign of what is to come.

The most obvious reason the Cavaliers traded longtime starting point guard Darius Garland for Harden is availability. Garland has existed in three modes this season: Out of the lineup, playing hurt or regaining rhythm. Harden is ready every day. But subtler changes come with the decade-older Harden running the team, too.

One of them is the way defenses react to the Cavs’ new weapon.

Allen has gone wild in his first three games alongside Harden, exploding for 29, 22 and 21 points. That was, of course, with Evan Mobley still sidelined by a calf strain. Questions remain about how he and Allen will coexist in a game’s most important moments. Earlier in the season, with Mobley available, Allen sat for stretches of close fourth quarters. But now, he’s balling, as are the Cavs, with wins in 12 of their last 14 heading into the All-Star break.

And with Harden, they might ball in a different way than they had before.

Ignore the result of that aforementioned Harden-Allen pick-and-roll. Instead, pay attention to how the Kings defended it, sending a second man at Harden. That didn’t happen often with Garland this season, or even when the 26-year-old was in All-Star form.

Harden inspires panic whenever a teammate ventures his way for a screen. Switching against him can turn into a disaster. Harden can roast less able opponents. Drop too far back, and the defense is susceptible to a pull-up 3-pointer or one of his nasty step-backs. Nobody of his generation is more crafty in manipulating the tiniest slivers of space.

So defenses ache not to give him daylight, which means guys like Allen could get to feast off different types of coverages than they’ve seen in recent years.

For example, over their first three games together, teams haven’t run much drop coverage (when the screener’s defender sags back toward the basket) against the Harden-Allen pick-and-roll. It’s happened on only 12 of their 45 pick-and-rolls thus far (27 percent), according to Second Spectrum. Sometimes, they blitz. Sometimes, defenders come up to touch. Either way, the strategy is to get into Harden’s space.

For perspective, defenses ran drop coverage on 57 percent of Garland-Allen pick-and-rolls this season, in part because they weren’t as worried about a hampered Garland making them pay if his man got hung up on the screen. Surely, the difference won’t continue to be this stark, if only because of the competition the Cavs have faced.

The Washington Wizards have played increasingly aggressive pick-and-roll coverages lately, were without center Alex Sarr on Wednesday and, most importantly, bleed points. The Denver Nuggets are a bottom-10 defense without Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson. And the Kings are the Kings.

But Harden is a big man whisperer. He and Ivica Zubac combined to become an elite pick-and-roll tandem with the LA Clippers. Wherever he goes, some 7-footer benefits.

Could Allen, thanks to the frenzies Harden causes, join the list? And once he’s back, could Mobley, too?

Long-term insurance

Jose Alvarado saved the best for last.

With his team trouncing the Philadelphia 76ers and Alvarado already on fire from 3-point range, the New York Knicks’ newest guard turned to his greatest hits. He snuck into the corner, 94 feet from the basket, as the Sixers brought the ball up the court. He scampered behind the dribbler, unnoticed. Alvarado’s rarest talent is his ability to tiptoe while running. He poked the ball out, stole it, dribbled the other way, hoisted a pull-up 3 from the wing, missed it, then sprinted into a passing lane to intercept the outlet pass and kicked a dish to the corner for a made jumper.

Two steals in three seconds. All in the most in-character fashion.

No one told Alvarado that he and the Knicks are supposed to have an adjustment period.

He finished the 49-point demolition of the Sixers with a unique line: 26 points, eight 3s and five steals in only 19 minutes played. No one had done that before.

The Knicks traded two second-round picks for Alvarado for moments like the double-steal sequence or even earlier in the same game, when 76ers big man Trendon Watford committed a hard foul on Mitchell Robinson and Alvarado got into his face enough to warrant a technical foul. He’s acclimating well, which is especially important with another backup point guard, Miles “Deuce” McBride, having just undergone surgery for a sports hernia. McBride could be out until the playoffs.

That’s why the word “insurance” got thrown around after the Knicks acquired Alvarado, who plays the same position as McBride, albeit differently. The Knicks wanted a secondary ballhandler even before they knew the severity of McBride’s injury. Now with him out, they have a replacement who can also run a pick-and-roll next to Jalen Brunson.

But Alvarado also provides a potentially different type of McBride insurance, too.

McBride is on one of the NBA’s most team-friendly contracts, owed less than $4 million next season — a bonkers number for a two-way performer of his caliber. But he is eligible for an extension this summer, one that would kick in for the 2027-28 season.

The Knicks, no matter how much they appreciate McBride, might not be in a position to compensate him fairly. First, a market-value extension for McBride, assuming it came with no other money-dumping moves, would make the team untenably expensive in a couple of seasons. Unless the Knicks are winning titles (or close to it), committing to second-apron purgatory might not be in the cards. And second, New York wants to maintain flexibility for what feels like Year 47 of the Giannis Antetokounmpo chase.

Extending McBride at a large number would make him untradeable this summer. The 24-year-old is young and talented enough that he may have to be part of any big-time trade. And the Knicks — like with Julius Randle, Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin and others — are historically proactive in moving on from players they can’t come to terms with on an extension.

The Knicks don’t want to trade McBride. And this is no prediction they will. But it is a reminder that Alvarado, even with a cheap player option in 2026-27, is as much McBride insurance for next season as he is for this one.

Ivey drip

The Chicago Bulls have deemed themselves the ultimate second-draft team, selling off veterans at the deadline and bringing back a gauntlet of second-round picks — along with a couple of players once coveted in the lottery.

They traded for Rob Dillingham, the guard whom the Minnesota Timberwolves glued to the bench after selecting him eighth in the 2024 draft. And in a separate deal, they acquired Jaden Ivey, the No. 5 choice in 2022.

Ivey is in an especially fascinating position, not just because of how Chicago is using him but also because of his contract.

At some point, probably around when his 2024-25 season ended with a broken fibula last January, Ivey’s timeline fell behind that of the Detroit Pistons, his former team. He entered a chaotic situation as a rookie, placed on a 17-win team. Come Year 2, he teetered on the edge of one-year coach Monty Williams’ rotation with Killian Hayes, a guard the Pistons waived later in the season just to remove him from Williams’ toolbox.

At the beginning of last season, Ivey showed promise in a stable situation.

The Pistons shifted Ivey into a more off-ball role. He ran around more screens and excelled as a 3-point shooter, an area of his game that was once a question mark. Then the injury came. Detroit busted out as a stout playoff squad with Ivey on the sideline. He returned this season playing the part of Wally Pipp — relegated to a limited bench role on a team that’s catapulted to the top of the Eastern Conference.

It might seem that with free agency coming this summer, Ivey just transported from one unfortunate situation to a worse one.

The Bulls are a losing team that’s not giving him the reins. They are on small-guard overload. The other day, they played a lineup with the 6-foot-2 Dillingham, the 6-foot-3 Ivey, the 6-foot-3 Collin Sexton, the 6-foot-4 Isaac Okoro and the 6-foot-7 Guerschon Yabusele. Another scoring guard, Anfernee Simons, is getting to run the offense. So is Dillingham. So is Sexton. When those guys don’t, second-year up-and-comer Matas Buzelis handles.

Ivey has run only 21 pick-and-rolls over his first four games in Chicago, according to Second Spectrum.

And yet, the 23-year-old is in a position to shine.

The shooting has stuck. He’s at 41 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s since the start of last season. And in Chicago, he has an opportunity, even if it’s not with the basketball consistently in his hands — not just because he’s playing more again, but also because of the Bulls’ empty roster this summer.

Leading into the trade deadline, agents who represented players on expiring deals yearned to get their clients to Chicago. The Bulls will be one of the few teams with significant cap space this offseason. They just traded a couple of early-prime guards who will hit free agency in July, Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu. Someone has to receive that money. And there’s no better way to do so than receiving the inside track, an opportunity to prove yourself in-house.

So even as the Bulls close out yet another uninspiring season, it’s worth watching their second-draft guys — Ivey, because he’s months from restricted free agency and in an environment change that could revamp his career, and Dillingham, because a team is now giving him a chance.



Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *