Julian Alvarez was smiling broadly. Two goals in Atletico Madrid’s 5-2 Champions League last-16 first-leg win over Tottenham had earned him a deserved player of the match trophy.
But walking through the mixed zone at the Metropolitano, back on March 10, the Argentina international’s expression quickly changed as he was asked about speculation he could move to Barcelona.
“I’ve nothing to say,” Alvarez replied. “There’s always a lot of talk — everyone has an opinion, things can snowball. I’m happy at Atletico; we’re fighting for things, going well in the Champions League and into the Copa del Rey final.”
Given the 26-year-old is regularly mentioned as Barcelona’s number one transfer target for this summer, Alvarez was pressed to confirm he would still be at Atletico next season.
“I couldn’t tell you; maybe yes, maybe no, you never know,” he replied, looking very uncomfortable. “I’m very grateful to Atletico — the fans show me they love me, and I’m very happy here.”
Such comments did little to stop the speculation, despite his contract at Atletico running to 2030 and containing a €500million (£436m; $577m) release clause.
Alvarez was rested completely for Saturday’s game between Atletico and Barca in Madrid, which the visitors won 2-1 to take a big step towards retaining their La Liga title.
But the spotlight will be on him again in their Champions League quarter-final first leg tonight at the Camp Nou — and uncertainty over his future is sure to continue beyond next Tuesday’s return leg.
“I came here to play, to help, and to grow as a player and a person,” Alvarez told reporters in January 2025, having joined Atletico for €95million (£83m; $110m) from Manchester City in August 2024.
After a few awkward early months, he settled in well, finishing the season with 29 goals and eight assists in 57 games, while also displaying the commitment and work ethic Atletico coach Diego Simeone demands from every player.
Alvarez taking on the Barcelona defence at the Camp Nou in early March (Josep Lago/AFP via Getty Images)
However, the season ultimately ended in disappointment — most clearly in the Champions League last 16 against Real Madrid. Alvarez scored a superb goal at the Bernabeu in the first leg, but his disallowed ‘double-touch’ penalty was a key moment of the shootout that saw Atletico eliminated once again by their city rivals.
This campaign has been another rollercoaster. After starting the season very slowly, Alvarez hit a superb hat-trick in a 3-2 win over Rayo Vallecano in September. He followed that with two goals in a 5-2 win over Real Madrid just three days later.
But he has scored only twice in 22 La Liga games since — a contributing factor to Atletico’s non-existent title challenge (Saturday’s defeat left them in fourth, 19 points off leaders Barcelona).
The two graphics above and below, based on performances in La Liga, show how Alvarez’s role has changed from 2024-25 to 2025-26. Last term he was a much bigger goal threat, with limited advanced involvement and pass progression. This season his goal threat has more than halved, while he is more involved in getting Atletico forward, playing from a more withdrawn position.
A third graphic below shows how, last season, Alvarez was much more involved inside the opposition penalty area. He recorded his highest average quality of shot (xG per shot) since 2022-23 and was very active around the six-yard box. His shot quality has decreased this season, and he’s largely been involved around the edge of the box.
One factor in the drop-off in numbers must be Alvarez’s exertions for club and country over the past four years, which have made him an unwitting poster boy in the workload debate. Playing at a World Cup, a Copa America, and an Olympics with Argentina, as well as domestic and European competition and a Club World Cup with Atletico, has led to 276 appearances since February 2022. He has had just one proper summer break over the past three years.
However, Alvarez’s workrate and defensive contributions do not seem to have suffered. Ten of the possessions he has won in the attacking third since the start of 2024-25 have led to shots. Across La Liga, that is only bettered by six other players (among those to have played a minimum of 1,000 minutes).
It is no secret that Barca are looking for a new centre-forward. Current number nine Robert Lewandowski is out of contract in June and turns 38 in August. Ferran Torres has not scored since January, a run of 12 games without finding the net. It is also not yet clear whether Barca will seal a permanent move for Marcus Rashford, who is on loan from Manchester United.
Alvarez’s camp have regularly appeared to welcome interest from the Catalan club. Last summer, his agent, Fernando Hidalgo, told Spanish TV show El Chiringuito de Jugones that his client grew up a Barca fan because of Lionel Messi, now an international team-mate with Argentina.
Alvarez and Messi celebrating with Argentina in September 2025 (Juan Mabromata/AFP via Getty Images)
“Having followed Leo’s career growing up, there’s a special feeling for Barcelona, like most Argentine kids,” Hidalgo said in June 2025. “Julian will be at Atletico next season. We’ll see how (future) negotiations go.”
In November, Alvarez gave a rare interview to French sports newspaper L’Equipe, in which he also suggested that a decision over his future would be made this summer.
“For the moment I’m focused on Atletico,” he said. “We’ll weigh things up at the end of the season.”
Alvarez’s €500million release clause is not a realistic figure for any buying club, let alone one with Barca’s financial issues. But speaking in mid-March, Barca president Joan Laporta suggested that a deal could be done if the price was right.
“(Alvarez) is a great player, who people say would work in Barca’s system,” Laporta told Cadena Ser radio show Què t’hi jugues! “(But) he’s not a player to break the bank for. First, he’d have to show his willingness to come, for an affordable price. We’ll have to see.”
Then came Alvarez’s ambiguous comments after the Tottenham game, which Atletico coach Simeone played down.
“What Julian said the other day was correct — life is about going day by day and he is contributing a huge amount for us,” Simeone said in a press conference.
A few days later, Atletico sporting director Mateu Alemany, who worked at Barca from March 2021 to September 2023, told Movistar TV: “He has this year, and four more years (on his deal) and we expect him to stay with us. We even want to extend that contract further. There’s no issue, just people trying to create something where there’s nothing.”
If there really is an issue, a potential solution would be for Atletico to offer Alvarez a pay rise. Top earner Antoine Griezmann’s summer move to MLS club Orlando City will open up some space on their wage bill, and Simeone would be loath to see both his best attacking players leave in the same window.
Through Alvarez’s up and down 2025-26, he has delivered excellent performances for Atletico in their most high-profile games.
He was especially outstanding with a goal, assist and all-round display when Atletico edged past Barcelona 4-3 on aggregate in their Copa del Rey semi-final.
Then came a fantastic three goals and two assists across the Champions League last-16 tie against Tottenham, including marking his 100th game for Atletico with his 46th goal for the club in the second leg in London.
Simeone has repeatedly stuck with Alvarez through his goalless runs, more than once calling him “our best player” and offering understanding and support to his countryman.
(Javier Soriano/AFP via Getty Images)
“(Julian) is a person, and as a person we have better moments and not so good ones,” Simeone said in a press conference before the recent international break. “In recent games, we’ve seen him like before. That’s why, when his level dropped, we demanded to see this level again. We know that the road ahead is never straight and there are curves.”
Alvarez’s road now takes in the two huge Champions League games against Barcelona. The Copa del Rey final against Real Sociedad on April 18 in Seville brings a chance to win his first trophy with Atletico. A World Cup, in which he and Argentina are defending champions, is also on the horizon.
Then it will likely be decision time for Alvarez. Although uncomfortable in the media spotlight, he is an ambitious and determined character, who forced through his transfer from City to Atletico when he felt it was the right move for him.
Another crux moment in his career appears to be coming soon.
Additional reporting: Anantaajith Raghuraman