Loyalty-gaming and shift from automation to actual intelligence to drive travel in 2026

Phocuswright has released its latest Travel Forward report, outlining the forces shaping global travel in 2026; from the macro trends steering demand, to the dynamics redefining loyalty, to the continuous accelerating of AI. If there’s one key takeaway from the report, it’s that travel has moved well beyond recovery and into a new competitive era where growth is real, but complexity is rising.

“The industry is hungry for grounded, forward-looking, actionable insight,” said Pete Comeau (Managing Director, Phocuswright) during the Travel Forward 2026 press briefing. “Travel Forward is our effort to synthesize the macro forces shaping travel, the signals emerging now, and the structural changes that will define the years ahead.”

 

Global travel is mature, digital, and tilting East

According to the report, travel and tourism now contribute $11.7 trillion to global GDP, supporting 371 million jobs. International visitor spending is forecast to climb to a record US$2.1 trillion, surpassing pre-pandemic peaks. And while demand has normalised after the reopening boom, the story now revolves around digital dominance.

Online channels currently represent 63% of all global travel sales, projected to reach 67% by 2027. “Travel’s being sold, serviced, and experienced online like never before. It’s no longer about recovery, it’s about who adapts best to a digital-first traveler,” Comeau explained.

Within that digital channel mix, online supplier-direct bookings lead in mature markets (North America, Europe), while in APAC and emerging regions, OTAs remain dominant, especially in lodging.

The geographic center of momentum is shifting too. The Middle East, Latin America, and many parts of Asia are expanding faster than the global average, markets “adding the next 100 million travelers,” as Comeau put it. With rising middle classes, new connectivity, and major infrastructure investments, these regions are shaping what the next billion trips will look like.

 

 

AI transitions from buzzword to behavior-changer

One of the report’s most pronounced themes is the transformative role of AI. “We’ve moved from automation to actual intelligence,” said Comeau. “Travellers aren’t just being marketed to, they’re being understood in real time.”

One in three U.S. travellers has already used generative AI tools for trip planning or in-destination support. Across Europe and APAC, AI adoption is accelerating as platforms embed contextual assistants directly into the booking flow. This aligns with Phocuswright’s broader prediction that AI will blur, and eventually erase, the traditional boundaries between inspiration, planning, and booking.

Behind the scenes, travel businesses are racing to embed AI into operations: more than 70% of U.S. short-term-rental hosts now use a property-management system (PMS), and 71% of managed hosts report using AI for functions like pricing, messaging, or analytics.

For travel companies, Comeau stressed, “The next competitive advantage isn’t who has the most data, it’s who uses it most creatively and personally.”

 

Loyalty gets complicated as travellers “game” the system

Senior analyst Madeline List highlighted one of the report’s most thought-provoking segments: a fresh, data-driven look at loyalty. “A lot of conversations about loyalty felt like they were missing the plot,” List said. “The industry talks about points, miles, lounges, upgrades… but loyalty, in the literal sense, means repeat patronage.”

 

 

According to Phocuswright’s new loyalty study:

• More than half of leisure travellers take only one or two trips a year, making loyalty harder to earn and maintain.
• Travelers do have favorite brands but they often switch anyway.
• Novelty is increasingly competing with consistency.
  “Younger generations want variety,” List noted. “About half of Gen Z and Millennials say variety matters more than the benefits of sticking with a single company.”
• Even luxury consumers are now regular redeemers of points and miles.
• 84% of leisure travellers have engaged in some form of ‘loyalty gaming’ in the past 12 months, from buying gift cards for points to choosing flights just to maintain status.

List’s key message was that “Loyalty is not created by a program. It’s the sum of every interaction a traveller has with a brand.” Brands that offer strong products, competitive pricing, and a sprinkle of novelty, and layer loyalty benefits on top, will have the best shot at winning repeat business.

Comeau reiterated the industry’s new reality. “We’ve moved from comeback to competitive mode. Growth is global, tech is accelerating, and the game is now on.”

Check out the full report here.