It’s a familiar cliché in Greek politics: polls are “snapshots in time.” Line up enough of those snapshots, and the picture seems unchanged. One party—New Democracy—still towers over the field. Across from it stand a cluster of rivals who, at least for now, pose no immediate threat to its electoral supremacy.
That’s the most straightforward interpretation of the findings.
But there is another way to look at the data: focusing on the aspirations of the parties and the private calculations of their leaders. How close are they to their stated goals? How far away? Can New Democracy secure an outright parliamentary majority? Can PASOK truly pull off a win—even by the narrowest possible margin, as its leader promises? Can Alexis Tsipras rebuild a fractured center-left and return to power?
The Mitsotakis Problem
If we take at face value the prime minister’s repeated assurances that the next election will be held under the current electoral law—and assume there is no surprise maneuver that alters the landscape between a first and second vote, since Greece is almost certain to go to the polls in two rounds—then Kyriakos Mitsotakis is facing a serious problem.
The prospect of governing outright, without having to find coalition partners, appears to be slipping further out of reach.
According to the latest survey by Metron Analysis, New Democracy polls at 21.4% in voting intention and 29% in voting projection—well short of the roughly 36 or 37 percent typically required for a single-party majority of 151 seats in Greece’s 300-seat Parliament. At best, the party would secure around 122 seats under today’s distribution.
In politics, there are no miracle cures—no magic fixes that can transform the landscape overnight. Kyriakos Mitsotakis has a steep hill to climb. The data make that clear, both in how voters assess his government’s record and in how they view him personally.
It’s not only that a majority believes the country is on the wrong track. It’s that 52% say their own financial situation is worse today than it was in 2019.
What does that mean? It means the government’s narrative of steady economic progress is failing to convince the electorate. Yes, wages have risen, and the recent cut in social security contributions has left a little extra in people’s paychecks. But for many households, those gains amount to very little. Even symbolic victories —like the election of Greek Minister of Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis to the helm of the Eurogroup— offer scant consolation when everyday expenses keep climbing.
Inflation and the government’s inability to tame the rising cost of living have eroded whatever benefits those measures delivered. In the end, what lingers is a stubborn reality: many households are struggling simply to make it to the end of the month.
The prime minister himself, once seen as one of the government’s chief assets, increasingly looks like part of the problem. Seventy percent view his administration negatively; 68% say the same of him personally. In polling on suitability for prime minister, “no one” now leads by 7%. Kyriakos Mitsotakis is no longer the country’s most popular political leader. Though he still dominates among centrist voters, a majority of them—55% to 44%—say they prefer political change over the stability he continues to promise.
Time is also slowly running out. Greece is scheduled to hold the rotating presidency of the European Union in July 2027. Few believe the country would assume that role while still searching for a government. All signs suggest the electoral cycle may begin even before the year is out.
Androulakis and the Weight of Expectation
Mitsotakis’ enduring advantage is the weakness of his rivals.
Under Nikos Androulakis, PASOK—the once-dominant center-left party that governed Greece for decades before collapsing during the financial crisis—has struggled to regain its footing. The party’s opposition strategy fails to resonate with a broad electorate. It has not capitalized on government fatigue. And Androulakis’ personal polling numbers do not persuade anyone that he could defeat New Democracy, even by the slimmest of margins.
PASOK does not project the image of a party that both wants—and is prepared—to govern. Beyond the underwhelming performance of its leader, the party has for some time been quietly but unmistakably undermined by internal rivals. These would-be successors, pursuing their own strategies, focus on short-term positioning while losing sight of the larger picture.
Some seem to assume they would emerge unscathed from a poor electoral result. What they fail to grasp is that if the ship goes down in open water, few on board are likely to make it safely ashore.
PASOK’s party congress, scheduled for next month, may be the last real opportunity for a reset. It could mark the beginning of a disciplined, unified march toward the elections; an effort to salvage what can still be saved. Or it could serve as a kind of political wake: fond words spoken over a party that has already slipped away.
Tsipras’ Difficult Return
If Androulakis faces stagnation, Alexis Tsipras confronts something closer to disappointment.
The rebranding effort he launched and the media blitz surrounding the publication and presentation of his book Ithaca has yet to yield tangible results. If anything, the campaign was over the top. His associates showcased crowds that they portrayed as politically unaffiliated, lining up in Athens and Thessaloniki to attend one of the book’s presentations with Ithaca tucked under their arms, as if in search of illumination. At the same time, the presence of sidelined PASOK figures was presented as evidence that the political center was warming to his return.
The numbers suggest otherwise.
According to Metron Analysis, just 5% of respondents spontaneously name Tsipras as the most suitable candidate for prime minister—the same share as Nikos Androulakis. For Androulakis, that figure is discouraging. For Tsipras, a former prime minister who believes a measure of public nostalgia works in his favor, it is far more serious.
Whether that bleak picture changes once he formally launches his new party remains to be seen.
And it isn’t just one discouraging metric. Eighty percent of voters say they are unlikely or very unlikely to support a Tsipras-led party, reflecting a broad skepticism, particularly among centrists, that he has truly changed. Among self-identified centrist voters, 83% rule out backing him; only 17% say they might consider it. Even among center-left voters, the numbers are challenging: 60% say they are unlikely to vote for him, compared with 40% who say they might.
As time passes, the data suggest that casting himself as Mitsotakis’ principal rival belongs more to the realm of aspiration than reality. At this stage, Tsipras appears more likely to be competing with Androulakis for second place—if that.
Karystianou and the Fragmented Fringe
And then there is Maria Karystianou, whose rapid rise in popularity once suggested the possibility of a new political force. That momentum is fading. Within a month, positive views of her fell from 50% to 38%, while negative opinions jumped from 42 to 54%.
She still polls more favorably than a hypothetical Tsipras party. But without a broader team or a clearer message, her political space is narrowing—especially if figures like Zoe Konstantopoulou (Plefsi Eleftherias) and Kyriakos Velopoulos (Elliniki Lysi) maintain their current support, polling at 11.2% and 10.9% respectively. Their stability limits her room to grow.