Uncertainty has been a hallmark of California’s post-pandemic economy, with inflation, a labor market slowdown, and major shifts in federal economic policy. It’s not surprising that seven in ten adults (71%) expect bad financial times in the state over the next year, according to the February Statewide Survey. At the same time, most are not concerned about their own financial situation in the near term. While this survey was conducted before the Iran war began, Californians’ apprehensions were already in play—with an important message for election-year hopefuls.
June’s gubernatorial primary has moved financial concerns front and center. Nearly all California likely voters say that the candidates’ positions on affordability and the cost of living are important in determining their vote in June (61% very; 35% somewhat). Similarly, about nine in ten likely voters say this is important in determining their vote for the US House of Representatives in November (56% very, 36% somewhat).
Unexpectedly, given their doubts about the economic future, Californians mostly view their own financial situation as steady—at least for now. Nearly six in ten adults (58%) expect their personal financial situation over the next six months to be about the same; about two in ten say it will be stronger (3% much, 15% somewhat) or expect it to be weaker (3% much, 18% somewhat). Majorities across major regions of the state expect their finances to be about the same—although Los Angeles residents are somewhat more pessimistic than residents elsewhere.
Hold-steady views of personal finances—with few expecting gains in the near future—are notable in light of California’s idling labor market. Across almost all of the state’s major industries, job opportunities have been dwindling since 2022, with effectively no net job growth over the last year. Furthermore, average hourly wages for California’s private sector workers were barely in positive territory in 2025 after accounting for inflation, growing just 0.4% over the year (down from a peak of 3.4% in March); changes in average real wages varied across the state’s regions.
But even though average wage growth outpaced inflation last year, an overwhelming majority (71%) of Californians feel their incomes are not keeping up with rising prices. Most residents across regions and demographic groups say this, with some variation: Californians who earn less than $40,000 (85%), are renters (77%), have some college education or less (75%), or are ages 18 to 34 (75%) are among those most likely to express concern.
Volatility in prices may be one reason for Californians’ overall economic pessimism. In 2021–22, Californians were faced with rising prices at levels unseen in almost 40 years. While today inflation has cooled, overall prices in the state have increased 26% since 2019, a rate almost double that of typical price growth patterns. Larger increases for essentials like rent, utilities, and food have hit lower- and middle-income workers particularly hard as they already spend much of their budgets on basic needs.
Additionally, consumers strongly perceive rising prices as systematically eroding their purchasing power—even if wages are rising—with adverse effects felt most strongly by those with lower earnings. With gas prices on the rise due to the war in Iran, concerns about inflation are poised to continue weighing on consumers.
Californians remain concerned about the state’s economic future, and with the June primary less than three months away, the issue of affordability is top of mind. How will candidates tackle this important issue? Their approach will be a key factor in how California voters choose their next governor.