Is it a problem if the NBA Draft has too many good players?
Yes, in a first-world sorta way, and we’re finding out a few reasons why this season. For starters, this draft class is so loaded that it’s inevitable that a few gems will be passed over. That will result in those players being drafted unusually late or having to forestall their dream for a year while they collect NIL money, depending on the individual case.
Nonetheless, seeing the potential depth of the 2026 crop brings back reminders of 2018, when the lottery was loaded with talents such as Luka Dončić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young, Mikal Bridges and Jaren Jackson Jr. That pushed down a bumper crop of quality upperclassmen into the back half of the first round or even deeper.
In fact, the talent ran so deep that year that players such as Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr., De’Anthony Melton and Bruce Brown were relegated to the second round, while Duncan Robinson, Kenrich Williams and Gabe Vincent went undrafted.
NIL’s arrival has changed that equation somewhat, as underclassmen unlikely to be picked in the top 35 now take a payday from a high major instead of turning pro. It’s also changed the system even before draft decisions; there are simply a lot fewer NBA prospects at mid- and low-majors than there used to be because power-conference schools poached them after a year or two. To use one recent example, a guy such as Ja Morant isn’t coming back to Murray State for his sophomore year, because somebody in the SEC or Big Ten is dropping a big NIL check on him instead.
Despite that, I still see a few NBA-caliber players in the mid-major ranks who could end up being factors in either the 2026 or 2027 draft. In addition, I want to take this chance to talk about some of my favorite upperclassmen and power-conference players who I think aren’t getting quite enough notice.
With that in mind, let’s look at the nine players I think should get more attention as we turn toward March Madness — four mid-majors, three high-major upperclassmen and one surprising power-conference freshman — plus two special deep sleepers with an unusual circumstance attached. Also, please note all stats are through Friday, March 6.
Allen Graves, 6-9 Soph. PF, Santa Clara
Wait, another one from Santa Clara? How is this possible? A school that hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament in 30 years yet has given us Steve Nash, Jalen Williams and Brandin Podziemski. Is it possible the Broncos have yet another draft sleeper?
Yes, actually. Graves is the absolute, no doubt about it, No. 1 deep sleeper I have, and he’s increasingly becoming less of a deep sleeper as more teams look at their draft models and say, “Wait, what?! Who is this Graves guy?” (Speaking of which, this is the way we were first turned on to a certain freshman backup point guard at Murray State back when I was in the Memphis front office in 2018.)
Perhaps Graves won’t be in this draft. He likely will have high-major opportunities and a big payday that comes with it. I’ve been told by NIL managers that he blows up their models, not surprisingly.
Graves also has a deeply funky game that doesn’t lend itself to an easy translation at the next level. He’s not a great athlete, he fouls with wild abandon (8.2 personals per 100 possessions) and his team brings him off the bench.
Just in the past two weeks, he only played 13 minutes against Oregon State because of foul trouble and fouled out in 21 minutes against Gonzaga. Also, his 40.8 3-point percentage may be an outlier, given that he shoots 72.7 percent from the line.
On the other hand, Graves’s feel and hands are off the charts. Despite lacking great athleticism and playing the frontcourt, he leads the WCC in steal rate (5.2 swipes per 100 possessions; small conference or not, that is utterly absurd for a non-guard) and rebounds at a high rate.
Offensively, he plays as a stretch big, but also is a deft operator from the elbows who averages three assists for every turnover, and he shoots 56.2 percent on 2s. His turnover avoidance is particularly notable, as it’s a tough thing for a scout to track the absence of something in real time. Graves has committed nine turnovers since Christmas. Sum it all up and, per minute, he’s been the best player in the conference.
Graves will face some interesting tests in the coming days, starting with the WCC tournament, where a presumed semifinal matchup against Saint Mary’s may determine whether the Broncos make the NCAA Tournament. After that, whether it’s in the NCAAs or the NIT, scouts will want to see him against power-conference frontcourt opposition. (If you’re curious, Graves’s numbers largely held up against Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga, so he wasn’t just feasting on WCC minnows.)
I’ll be watching closely; he is one of the most fascinating draft cases.
Ebuka Okorie, 6-2 Fr. PG, Stanford
If Graves is the most fascinating case, Okorie is a close second. He wasn’t all that highly recruited and hasn’t generated a huge fan base among scouts as a 6-2 scoring guard who isn’t notably threatening from 3 (34.8 percent).
However, freshmen who have a BPM above 10 have an absolutely disproportionate rate of NBA success, to the point that you can’t possibly ignore it, and Okorie’s season qualifies.
So is the eye test off here, or is this a case of correlation not equaling causation? Okorie’s go-to skill is an almost supernatural ability to draw fouls, getting to the stripe 12.8 times per 100 possessions and hitting 83.0 percent once he’s there. He does this efficiently despite being the focal point of Stanford’s attack, and thus the opposition’s defense.
As with Graves, turnover avoidance is a massive part of Okorie’s story; he generates more than 13 points for every turnover and more than two assists per miscue.
Obviously, there are questions as to how this translates to the next level. Is a small guard without nuclear athleticism going to enter the league and just James Harden his way to the stripe all night? And if not, in what other categories can he make an impact?
Corey Camper, 6-5 Sr. SG Nevada
Here’s a deep cut on a mid-major guy who is probably a mid-to-late second-rounder similar to the Wolf Pack’s Kobe Sanders a year ago.
Arguably the most improved player in the country, Camper is a fifth-year senior who never shot the ball particularly well before 2025-26 but is going ham from the perimeter in his final season. That, obviously, changes his pro prospects dramatically.
Camper shot only 33.3 percent on low volume in 2024-25 at UTEP, but this season he’s at 42.7 percent from distance (and 78.2 percent from the line) while launching more than 10 tries per 100 possessions for Nevada. Camper’s other metrics are solid to good for a shooting guard.
Historically, big shooting accuracy jumps aren’t that trustworthy, except when they’re also accompanied by big jumps in volume like the one Camper has had. The lesson, which I’ve stated before, is that shooters tell on themselves as much by how often they shoot from distance as how accurately, especially in the relatively short sample of an NCAA season. Camper is launching both frequently and accurately enough to now take him seriously as a legit deep threat.
And having done that, he now has a case to make an NBA roster a year from now.
De’Shayne Montgomery, 6-4 Jr. SG, Dayton
I watched my alma mater play Dayton earlier this season, and as the game went on, my scout brain quickly switched from “Let’s go, ’Hoos” to “Who the heck is this guy on Dayton?” Unusually for a player at the Atlantic-10 level, Montgomery is an electric athlete with a fine collection of in-game dunks, including a couple he uncorked on my Virginia Cavaliers.
Montgomery’s indicator stats also pop, as he averages a phenomenal 4.3 steals per 100 possessions and has shot well enough (35.3 percent from 3, 61.4 percent on 2s, and 78.8 percent from the line) to be a credible threat in the half court. While he’s undersized for a wing and has neither the handle nor the feel to play a more prominent on-ball role, it feels like there’s a place in the league for a plus athlete who can convert shots.
Realistically, that’s probably in 2027 and not this year. As an underclassman generally viewed outside the top 35 on draft boards, Montgomery might find his best path to be an NIL payday. Still, he’s one of the top mid-major guys to keep an eye on. Dayton is likely headed to the NIT unless it wins its conference tournament, with potential late-round A-10 games against Saint Louis and VCU worth monitoring.
Emanuel Sharp, 6-3 Sr. SG, Houston
A fifth-year senior who is about two inches shorter than teams prefer for his position and two years older than teams prefer for their prospects, Sharp will surely miss the first round in June, and maybe even the second, because of his unsexiness.
The odds of him finding a role somewhere once the dust settles, however, seem pretty reasonable, because Sharp checks the 3-and-D boxes that teams love. Despite his size, Sharp is a good defender (albeit a foul-prone one) who is an important cog in Houston’s frenetic system.
Offensively, Sharp’s prolific 3-point bombing (15.1 3-point attempts per 100 possessions) and money foul shooting (87.7 percent this season) are strong indicators for highly effective 3-point shooting at the pro level, far more than his 37.8 percent career percentage would indicate on its own. He draws a lot of fouls for a player of his ilk and has added a notable dose of playmaking to his resume this season (4.0 assists per 100, and nearly two dimes for every turnover).
Otega Oweh is under the radar despite being an All-SEC performer at Kentucky. (Maria Lysaker / Imagn Images)
Otega Oweh, 6-5 Sr. SG, Kentucky
Oweh has been mostly under the draft radar for two reasons: first, an iffy outside shot with a form that doesn’t inspire confidence in the capacity for long-term improvement; and second, because he can be mistake-prone and a bit too court-blind as a decision-maker on the move.
However, his shooting (35.3 percent career from 3, 71.6 percent from the line) isn’t quite tragic enough to stamp him a non-shooter, and his other contributions are positive enough to betray obvious pro potential. Oweh is a downhill, attacking player who excels in transition and with driving lanes, something the NBA should provide in much greater quantity than the NCAA.
Defensively, he’s had a high steal rate under multiple coaches and systems (3.3 per 100 this season), has cut his foul rate significantly over his career and has a strong frame that should help him hold up in 1-on-1 matchups, even against bigger wings.
Combine that with a plus motor, and there’s a lot to like if he can hold his own as a half-court offensive player. That latter part isn’t a given and is why he won’t be a first-rounder, especially in a draft like this one. But for an All-SEC caliber player at a blueblood school, I’m surprised he hasn’t gained more traction as a prospect.
Mason Falslev, 6-3 Jr. SG, Utah State
It would not be a proper Hollinger draft sleepers column without a player from Utah State. And while I take a moment to display my receipts on Neemias Queta and Sam Merrill, let’s introduce another: Falslev, a junior guard with a quirky statistical profile who may have a niche at the next level.
Falslev rebounds like a power forward and has a phenomenal steal rate (3.7 per 100 possessions). Those types of indicator stats will get your foot in the door on draft models, but his offense also stands out for how well he shoots inside the arc for a smaller player (59.1 percent on 2s for his career). Falslev has an unusual knack for short-range runners, floaters, flips and hooks, even when he’s not especially open.
However, Falslev isn’t a hugely threatening shooter because he almost never shoots jumpers off the dribble; he’s accurate with his feet set (39.1 percent this year) but low-volume. Additionally, he doesn’t have a point guard’s handle or off-the-dribble shot-creation ability. On the other hand, that makes his solid assist rate even more impressive, as he gets a lot of them on secondary actions.
If I had to compare Falslev to a pro, it might be De’Anthony Melton, an undersized guard who operates as a jack of all trades because he fills so many categories on the stat sheet. (Also: Melton was a teenaged one-and-done; Falslev served a Mormon mission before coming to Ogden and is already 24.) Again, the reality is that guys like this usually get a bag to move up to a power-conference school rather than jump to the NBA, but he’d be a very interesting second-round possibility if he entered.
Utah State will be one of the favorites in the Mountain West tournament and should make the NCAA field.
Milan Momcilovic, 6-8 Jr. SF, Iowa State
If you were going to bet on one current college player to turn into Duncan Robinson, Momcilovic is the one. The 6-8 forward checks every box for a shooting threat, making an absurd 50.2 percent of his 3s this season while hurling 14.4 attempts per 100 possessions. Just in case you thought that was a fluke, he’s also shooting 89.1 percent from the line.
Momcilovic isn’t just accurate from a standstill; his footwork and ability to square up and release quickly while on the move and off different platforms are hugely impressive. He requires very little space to launch into catch-and-shoots and can make them on the run going left or right. Because of his height, he also has some mismatch-hunting potential when he can shoot right over the top of an opponent.
Momcilovic has good size but will be a minus defender at the pro level and won’t create much for himself. That hardly matters if somebody can let it rip like this guy.
Because he’s a junior, I expect Momcilovic to return to Ames for another payday, but even in a draft this strong he could sneak into the back end of the first round if he comes out.
Special Non-Draftable Sleepers Division:
Thijs de Ridder, 6-9 Fr. PF, Virginia, and Sananda Fru, 6-11 Fr. C, Louisville
File this under “unlikely but fun to think about:” Even as their college seasons go on, De Ridder or Fru could be signed by an NBA team tomorrow.
That’s because the NIL-driven influx of overseas players into the NCAA has also created an interesting sub-species of prospect: the post-draft college guy. Neither De Ridder nor Fru can be drafted this year, because they were already in the 2025 draft as auto-eligible 22-year-olds — De Ridder with Bilbao in Spain and Fru with Braunschweig in Germany. Neither was selected, and no NBA team owns their rights. As a result, they are technically eligible to sign into the league at any time.
As a practical matter, this likely is irrelevant until their last season of eligibility (2027 for De Ridder, 2029 for Fru). Both De Ridder and Fru can make far more in NIL money than they would on a 10-day or a two-way or whatever to be a fringe player on an NBA bench. But this situation is likely to come up more frequently in the coming seasons.