If the 2024-25 season taught us anything, it’s that head coaching jobs in the NBA are more precarious than they’ve ever been. The Memphis Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins in March of a season in which they would eventually make the playoffs. The Denver Nuggets fired Michael Malone two years after he won a championship. Outside of a few specific cases, there really isn’t much job security in this league anymore.
With the regular season nearing an end, which coaches are safe, who’s in danger, and who we should probably expect to be replaced? Our hot seat rankings include eight coaches, so let’s briefly go through the remaining 22:
- JJ Redick (Lakers), JB Bickerstaff (Pistons), Mitch Johnson (Spurs), Joe Mazzulla (Celtics), Darko Rajakovic (Raptors), Erik Spoelstra (Heat), Jordan Ott (Suns), Charles Lee (Hornets) and Will Hardy (Jazz) have all hit their preseason win total projection before the end of March. Their teams are playing at or above expectations, so it seems reasonable to consider them safe. Mark Daigneault has not yet hit his preseason projection… but he’s hit everybody else’s, as the defending champion Thunder have 59 wins. So he’s obviously safe. There is another coach who has already met his preseason projection, but he’s listed for circumstantial reasons.
- Steve Kerr (Warriors) and Rick Carlisle (Pacers) are so accomplished and have earned so much capital within their organizations that a firing is simply unrealistic. If they ever leave, it will be on their own terms.
- Jason Kidd (Mavericks) and Billy Donovan (Bulls) signed contract extensions within the past year. Considering both have survived periods of significant organizational and roster upheaval, it’s hard to imagine either being fired, though Donovan may be courted for the North Carolina job. Ty Lue (Clippers) and Chris Finch (Timberwolves) both signed extensions in 2024 and their teams are playing well enough to suggest a firing is neither likely nor needed. There is one coach who signed an extension last offseason who will be addressed, but coaches getting fired so soon after re-signing is a rarity.
- Jordi Fernandez (Nets), Tuomas Iisalo (Grizzlies), David Adelman (Nuggets) and Kenny Atkinson (Cavaliers) were all hired within the last two years. Atkinson and Adelman took over winners, with Atkinson improving upon Bickerstaff’s performance in Cleveland while Adelman took the Nuggets further in last year’s playoffs than Malone was expected to. Those teams haven’t been quite as good as they hoped this season, but neither is far off from expectations. Fernandez took over a tanker and, when they’ve had basically any talent available, they’ve exceeded expectations. If Iisalo was going to be fired, it likely would have been when he was feuding with Ja Morant early in the season. An organization willing to stand by him through that tumult likely has no intention of firing him so soon after hiring him.
- The Hawks have won 15 of their past 17 games. There wasn’t a specific category that Quin Snyder cleanly fit into, but he appears safe. Atlanta’s decision to trade Trae Young and lean into the movement principles Snyder seemingly prefers on offense further supports the notion that he’ll be around for the long haul.
- The one borderline case I considered was Mike Brown. The Knicks have lived up to expectations. They are currently the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, right where they were last year. They’re on pace to exceed last season’s win total. The Knicks are one of three teams to rank in the top five in the NBA in both offense and defense, along with the Spurs and Thunder. Brown should be safe. He’s implemented most of the changes the Knicks wanted. He’s maximizing the bench. He has the team passing more and shooting more 3s. But we’re talking about the Knicks here. James Dolan has given several public quotes setting the Finals as the expectation. He’s enough of a wild card that an early postseason exit could doom Brown, but for now, I decided to leave him off the full list.
So that covers 22 of the 30 NBA head coaches. Let’s dive into the last eight.
8. Tiago Splitter, Trail Blazers
I would guess that Tiago Splitter is back next season, but he is listed because he is still an interim head coach and the Blazers haven’t yet removed that tag.
Splitter was thrust unexpectedly into the top job after opening night when Chauncey Billups was arrested. The interim has acquitted himself reasonably well in that position. Though his defense hasn’t nearly lived up to the promise Billups’ did at the end of last season, the Blazers have hovered around .500 despite a rash of injuries throughout the roster.
Deni Avdija grew into an All-Star on his watch and Portland may make the playoffs through the Play-In Tournament. Splitter is a more creative offensive coach than Billups was, and he’s managed to reinvent Portland as an up-tempo team without the benefit of leading training camp. His lone season as a head coach in Europe yielded a French league championship, and Portland proactively hired him away with a big role in mind. It’s hard to imagine them firing him after a single year under adverse circumstances.
7. James Borrego, Pelicans
Like with Splitter, I’m guessing James Borrego will return, but he has to be listed for the same reason. Neither of their teams has lit the world on fire, but both have certainly impressed given the circumstances.
The Knicks tried to hire Borrego as Brown’s top assistant. The Pelicans said no because they correctly deduced they may need him to step in for Willie Green, whom they ultimately fired early this season. The beginning of this year, with an injury-prone and ill-fitting roster, was a disaster. But Borrego at one point won 15 of 25 games as the Pelicans managed to muster a bit of momentum toward the end of this wasted season. There’s something to build on here. Borrego may get interest from other teams. He almost got Cleveland’s head-coaching job two years ago, after all. But if he wants the Pelicans job, it should be his. He’s done better with this team than anyone could have reasonably expected.
6. Ime Udoka, Rockets
Ime Udoka signed a long-term extension with the Rockets last offseason and it was well-deserved. Udoka had spent three seasons as a head coach and each of those three teams improved by at least 10 wins (or the shortened-season equivalent) over the previous season. His decision to lean into offensive rebounding with two-big lineups last season was genuinely innovative and started a league-wide shift. He’s an excellent defensive coach. The Knicks tried to hire him last summer and were rebuffed. If Udoka were fired, he’d absolutely get another job.
But if any team has set itself up for a stunning coaching change in the vein of Malone or Jenkins a season ago, it is Houston. Yes, the Rockets lost Fred VanVleet before the season and Steven Adams in the middle of it, but that’s no excuse for the bland and frankly boring offense the Rockets play every night. There are roster limitations at play here, but Udoka has Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun. There is no excuse for a team with this much talent scoring fewer half-court points per play than the tanking Pacers.
The Rockets lead the aspirant contenders in utterly baffling losses this season. They just blew a 13-point overtime lead to the Timberwolves without Anthony Edwards on Wednesday night. They blew an 18-point fourth-quarter lead to the Knicks a month ago. They lost at home to the Warriors without Stephen Curry earlier this month and to the Bulls on the road last week.
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. Maybe a healthy roster, or an upgraded one, addresses this. But you shouldn’t need an absolutely flawless roster to display basic competence in March. If former Udoka assistant Joe Mazzulla can navigate the absence of Jayson Tatum in Boston, surely Udoka, with this much talent at his disposal, should be able to beat the post-deadline Bulls and hold double-digit leads.
Maybe we’re just learning that his offensive deficiencies are so glaring that his other virtues can’t overcome them. Maybe he’s destined to be this generation’s Scott Skiles, the perfect coach to install a culture and turn a bad team around, but not one ideally suited to leading a winning team. Or maybe he can just shake up his coaching staff and get back on track next season. Whatever the answer is, something has to change.
What’s happening in Houston is not acceptable given the level of talent on the roster and the ambitions this team harbored.
5. Nick Nurse, 76ers
If Philadelphia’s season continued in an uneventful manner from the beginning of February, Nick Nurse would probably be safe. At that point, the 76ers were a feel-good story. They’d rebounded from a miserable lottery season to insert themselves back into the playoff picture. Rookie guard VJ Edgecombe looked like a possible star, Joel Embiid looked great when healthy and Tyrese Maxey evolved into an All-NBA player.
And then the 76ers traded Jared McCain, who struggled mightily through the early portion of this season in Philadelphia but immediately bounced back and became a key piece for a championship contender in Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, the 76ers dealt with a suspension to Paul George and injuries to Embiid and Maxey. They admirably hovered around .500 in that window, but what seemed like a sure playoff spot became a potential slog through the Play-In Tournament. If the 76ers ultimately emerge as a top-six seed, or acquit themselves well through the Play-In Tournament and first round, there’s a good chance Nurse survives.
But if the 76ers don’t live up to their postseason hopes, watch McCain help the Thunder defend their championship, and then hand them a lottery pick from the Al Horford trade six years ago? Heads may roll. Someone is going to be held accountable for the McCain trade. Nurse didn’t make it. Daryl Morey did. But Morey was acting on the information he had. McCain was borderline unplayable for much of the season in Philadelphia on a roster that was loaded with guards. If Nurse couldn’t figure out what to do with him over the course of three months, how was Mark Daigneault able to fix him essentially overnight?
Another concern here is the minutes distribution. Nurse is one of the two coaches in recent NBA history, along with Tom Thibodeau, who relies the most heavily on his starters. Maxey comfortably leads the NBA in minutes per game this season. He finished second two years ago. In 2023, four of the top 32 leaders in minutes per game were Raptors players under Nurse. We’re moving into the depth era, when more players play fewer minutes so that they can play harder. What Nurse is doing with Maxey might not be sustainable long-term. Morey might be vulnerable, but so is Nurse. And while they might both go, when there’s only one scapegoat, the coach is chosen far more often than the general manager.
4. Doc Rivers, Bucks
The Bucks were 30-13 when they fired Adrian Griffin in 2024. That decision was warranted. But Doc Rivers finished that season 17-19 with the same players. The Bucks won 48 games a year ago with a largely healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo. With a less healthy Antetokounmpo and a largely mismanaged roster, he’s 29-42 this season. The Bucks weren’t going anywhere this season, but it’s hard to believe they needed to be this bad.
The Bucks have the third-highest effective field goal percentage in the NBA this season. When it comes to putting the ball in the hoop from high-value locations, only the Lakers and Nuggets are better. Yet the Bucks rank 25th in overall offense. How is that even possible? Milwaukee is terrible at everything else. They turn the ball over constantly. They never get to the line.
Most damning of all, given Rivers’ history, the Bucks are dead last in the NBA in offensive rebounding. If you believe the game has simply passed Rivers by, as many Milwaukee fans do, that’s your case. Rivers’ teams have dogmatically refused to crash the offensive glass for most of his career. He believes in prioritizing transition defense (which the Bucks don’t do especially well either). It seems fitting, then, that what might be the final year of Rivers’ coaching career comes at the beginning of what has been an offensive rebounding revolution around the league.
This is a pretty complicated situation. Even if Rivers gets fired on merit, Milwaukee’s only priority this offseason is getting Antetokounmpo to sign an extension. If he wants Rivers to be the coach, well, the Bucks probably can’t fire him. There’s also the question of whether or not they’d want to pay out the rest of his contract. After all, they fired Griffin after less than a season and Mike Budenholzer with three years left on his contract. They’ve paid a lot of people not to coach them lately. They’d likely prefer it if Rivers retired. Maybe he doesn’t want to coach what is clearly now a non-contender. Of course, Rivers’ players don’t think he’d do so. Bobby Portis recently said he wouldn’t expect Rivers to walk away from the millions of dollars left on his contract, so if the Bucks want a new coach, they might have to keep paying their old one.
3. Brian Keefe, Wizards
It shouldn’t take 70 points in a meaningless game to start double-teaming Bam Adebayo. That 83-point game is a stain on the resume of the entire Wizards organization, but Keefe was in by far the strongest position to actually influence what was happening and he still couldn’t stop it.
One game alone isn’t a fireable offense, but Keefe is now 43-152 as a head coach. His rosters have obviously been designed to lose, but coaches can still impress under the circumstances. There’s been enough league-wide interest in Will Hardy for the Jazz to extend him with no meaningful winning. If the Nets fired Jordi Fernandez, it wouldn’t be long until someone else snatched him up.
Whether it’s getting players to play hard, coming up with creative sets, or really innovation of any kind, it’s possible to show coaching chops on bad teams. Keefe just hasn’t done it. Nothing has really stood out in his two and a half years helming the Wizards. There’s no discernible culture or playing style that suggests they’re building something here.
The Wizards are just three years into an extended tank with a couple of decent prospects to show for it. They’re going to try to win next season with Trae Young and Anthony Davis on the team. They’ll probably do so with a different coach.
2. Doug Christie, Kings
The Sacramento Kings weren’t trying to be bad. They acquired Zach LaVine at last year’s trade deadline to try to remain competitive. They paid Dennis Schröder mid-level money to be the point guard they thought they needed. The league is in the middle of a full-blown tanking crisis with major systemic changes seemingly on the horizon, yet the Kings have the worst record in the Western Conference. Only the Wizards, Nets and Pacers have been worse, and they’re actually trying to be.
The Kings somehow take the fewest 3-pointers in the NBA and the second-fewest restricted area shots per game, trailing only the Celtics, who have a 3-point attempt rate 13 percentage points higher than Sacramento’s. I genuinely don’t understand how that’s possible in 2026. Yes, this team is loaded with washed-up former All-Stars who think that status should allow them to take whatever shots they want, but this is stone-age basketball and it’s a terrible reflection on the coach who’s allowing it to happen. So are Sacramento’s No. 28 defense and No. 26 rebounding rate. There’s not much this team really does well.
The Kings don’t play especially hard either. They recover the sixth-fewest loose balls, have the sixth-fewest deflections and take the seventh-fewest charges. There are a couple of young players who stand out with their effort, most notably Dylan Cardwell, but watching this team is a slog. Why wasn’t Keon Ellis playing real minutes again? He’s playing about seven more minutes per game on a contender in Cleveland and thriving. Yet another bad look for the Kings.
Christie really couldn’t have inherited a worse situation as a relatively inexperienced assistant walking into a top job. De’Aaron Fox forced a trade a month after he got hired. His front office has badly mishandled the roster as it has for the past two decades. Injuries haven’t helped. But it’s very hard to accidentally be worse than teams that are trying to lose. Christie may not be responsible for the sorry state of this organization, but he hasn’t done anything to help lift it, either. Now that Christie, Vlade Divac and Peja Stojaković have all failed in prominent roles in Sacramento, it seems as though Chris Webber or Mike Bibby will have to be the next 2002 Kings players to try to turn this thing around.
1. Jamahl Mosley, Magic
The good news: The Magic are finally poised to end their streak of bottom-10 offenses, which began all the way back in 2013 after they traded Dwight Howard. The bad news is, well, basically everything else. Mosley’s seat got even hotter on Sunday night, as the Magic allowed a 31-0 run against the Raptors and lost by a franchise record 52 points.
While the Magic have been beset by injuries again, they’ve barely improved despite trading a mountain of draft picks for Desmond Bane. Paolo Banchero recently bemoaned Orlando’s struggle to react to the halftime adjustments opponents make, which is hard to read as anything but a shot at the coach.
You will not see many more glaring late-game defensive breakdowns than the two separate disasters the Magic suffered in the final five seconds against the Lakers last weekend, in which LeBron James was basically left alone under the basket before getting fouled and then Luke Kennard was left wide-open for a game-winning 3. Banchero was responsible for both mistakes. Whether he misunderstood consecutive coverages or simply didn’t follow the coach’s orders, either possibility is damning.
Orlando has big-picture questions to address this offseason. With a big Anthony Black contract coming, the Magic are close to having to move one of their core players purely for financial reasons. They’re not going to want to do that until they’ve seen what this roster looks like under a different coach. With the Magic plummeting to the bottom of the Play-In race, it’s hard to imagine Mosley surviving this disappointment of a season.