The NBA MVP award has had its fair share of debate and controversial winners. Keep in mind, Michael Jordan only won regular-season MVP five times, and LeBron James only won it four times. This year, a few of the league’s top players might not even be eligible because of one specific number.
That number: games played.
The NBA has a rule that requires players to play in at least 65 games to be considered for awards. That rule could dictate the 2025-26 MVP winner.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, last year’s winner, missed most of February due to an abdominal strain. He returned to action on Friday and has played 51 of Oklahoma City’s 62 games. That means Gilgeous-Alexander has to play 14 of the Thunder’s last 20 games to be eligible for MVP. That’s not a crazy rate, and there is still some room for the occasional rest day, but SGA is one muscle tweak or turned ankle away from being right on the bubble.
That breathing room does not exist for Nikola Jokić. The Denver star, who has won three of the last five MVPs and was in a close race with SGA last season, has already missed 16 games. He can only miss one more to make the cut for MVP consideration.
The conventional wisdom is that SGA and Jokić are once again a tier above the rest of the league, and one of them will win MVP, unless neither is eligible. Even Victor Wembanyama, who could be in line for MVP if the disaster scenario kicks in, has missed 14 games already. Wembanyama can only miss three of the last 22 Spurs games in order to be considered for MVP.
So what does this all mean? For now, SGA is still a strong favorite for MVP. He has a somewhat healthy margin in terms of games played, while the other two do not.
SGA is -275 to win the award on DraftKings, -260 on FanDuel and -250 on BetMGM. Those odds put SGA’s chances of winning between 70 and 75 percent. Jokić has somewhat long odds (+450 on MGM and FD and +475 on DK), mostly due to the question of whether or not he would be eligible.
Cade Cunningham, who has led the Detroit Pistons to the best record in the Eastern Conference, is actually ahead of Wemby for third in the odds to win MVP, again mostly because of doubts about whether Wemby will be eligible. Cunningham is +800 on BetMGM, +850 on DraftKings and +1000 on FanDuel. By comparison, Wemby’s odds range from +2200 to +2500. Cunningham has played 53 of Detroit’s 59 games, so he is mostly in the clear as far as eligibility.
Cunningham’s MVP odds have been on the move (+1400 a week ago), as he could end up winning “by default,” which is the harshest way to describe a player who is averaging 25.5 points and 9.8 assists on the likely top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The sad part is that the eligibility discussion has dictated much of the conversation around MVP instead of the value and play of the star players. SGA and Jokić are championship-winning alphas who have established themselves as the best players in the league. Wemby and Cunningham are helming breakthrough teams that have emerged as new title contenders.
However, the eligibility question is the most important one, especially on the betting front, if you’re trying to predict a winner. A bet on Jokić or SGA to win is a bet on their health the rest of the season, almost regardless of their play to close the year. Toward the end of the season, once we know whether they will hit that benchmark number of games, the debate can shift to which player is actually most deserving.