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Welcome back to another NBA edition of Newsweek Sports Betting.
Fortunately,Ā college basketball was kind to us last night*. Now, let’s see if we can make some hay with a couple of NBA player props tonight.
We’re going to try out a new format tonight:
– Up first: our favorite player prop bets this evening: Atlanta F Jalen Johnson vs. the Clippers and Detroit F Jalen Duren vs. the Bucks (TL;DR: I think they’re both going to go off)
– Later: the betting odds (spread, ML, total) for every game taking place this evening, presented without commentary
*š, Florida, for covering at +8.5 vs. Duke — and nearly winning outright! And same to you, Kansas big man Flory Bidunga (over 8.5 rebounds was never in doubt, especially not after you grabbed eight in the first half).
Best NBA Player Prop Bets Tonight: J. Johnson 25+ pts, J. Duren o17.5 pts
Jalen Johnson 25+ Points (+102 at DraftKings) — 1 unit
There’s a ton to like about Jalen Johnson tonight. In fact, the hardest decision when making the case for him in this spot is whether to start with how awful L.A. has been defensively or how hot Johnson has been over the last 10 days.
Let’s start with the case for Johnson.
His recent counting stats pretty much say it all. He’s scored at least 28 points in four of his last five games dating back to November 23, including in each of his last three games (29 pts vs. Cleveland on 11/28, 41 (!) vs. Philly on 11/30 and 29 vs. Detroit on 12/1).Ā
It’s worth noting that despite Atlanta being held to 98 points by the Pistons on Monday night, Johnson still nearly hung 30 on one of the best defensive teams in the league.
On the year, Johnson is shooting 53.9 percent from the floor, including 41.3 percent on 4.0 3-point attempts per game and 58.3 percent on 11.5 2-point attempts per game. That combo of volume and efficiency (to say nothing of the fact he’s averaging nearly 35 minutes per game) makes him hard to resist against any opponent.
Johnson’s 37-plus minutes in eight of his last 10 games, including 39-plus in five of those contests, provide further reason to back him tonight.
Fortunately — and perhaps more importantly — he’s facing a bad defensive team that seems ripe for yet another letdown after itsĀ surprising move to cut Chris Paul last night. The Clippers have the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league (120.95 points allowed per 100 possessions), and their opponent-adjusted defensive rating (121.00) is third-worst.
The Clippers are 2-14 over their last six games, and three of their last five opponents have scored at least 120 points.
In just their last five games, the Clips’ struggling D has given up the following scoring outbursts:
- Nov. 23 vs. CLE: 37 points to Donovan Mitchell (14-of-22 FGA)
- Nov. 25 vs. LAL: 43 to Luka Doncic, 31 to Austin Reaves, 25 to LeBron James
- Nov. 29 vs. DAL: 35 to Cooper Flagg (more thanĀ doubleĀ his 17 ppg average)
- Dec. 1 vs. MIA: 30 to Norman Powell, 22 apiece to Andrew Wiggins, Tyler Herro
With all that in mind, small ladder plays on Johnson Over 29.5 points (+300 at FD) and Johnson 35+ points (+700 at DK) are also awfully tempting, aren’t they??
Jalen Duren Over 17.5 Points (-117 at DraftKings) — 1 unit
Duren is not nearly as hot as Johnson right now, but he’s been a double-double machine all season.
The current favorite for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award — Duren is currently +240 at FD to win the award (ahead of Deni Avidja at +320) — has scored at least 18 points in 11 of his 18 games this season.
He finished with 19 points on 7-of-10 FG shooting in just 27 minutes when these teams met on Nov. 22. Also keep in mind that Duren — a 76.4 percent free-throw shooter this season — was just 5-for-8 from the line in that one.
At the risk of stating the obvious, it’s extremely encouraging that Duren cleared this line — with room to spare — on fewer field-goal attempts (10)Ā andĀ minutes (27) than his season averages of 10.8 FGA and 29.3 minutes per game.
Duren has played over 30 minutes in 10 of 18 games this year. That means that as long as tonight’s matchup — which the Pistons enter as just 4.5-point favorites — is close, he’s in line for significantly more playing time than he had the first time he faced the Bucks.
Duren’s solid free-throw shooting on 7.1 FTA per game also bodes well here, as does the fact that Milwaukee forward Bobby Portis is questionable tonight. In the previous meeting between these teams,Ā Duren shot 4-of-6 from the field in 25.2 possessions with Myles Turner as his defender, according to NBA.com’s matchup data. He also had two assists and drew two shooting fouls against the former Pacer.
Portis’s potential absence could mean either more Duren vs. Turner — which would obviously be favorable — and/or more possessions featuring Duren vs. backup Bucks C Jericho Sims, who is averaging just 11 minutes per game.
In 9.9 possessions vs. Sims on November 22, Duren was credited with 0 points on 0 FG attempts, with 1 assist and 2 turnovers, but Detroit did score 11 points while Sims was guarding Duren (also perĀ NBA.com’s matchup data).
Wednesday, December 3, NBA Betting Odds
Nuggets (14-6) at Pacers (4-17) — 7:00 p.m.
- Spread: DEN -8 (-112); IND +8 (-108)
- Moneyline: DEN -350; IND +280
- Total: 237.5 (over -110; under -110)
Trail Blazers (8-13) at Cavaliers (13-9) — 7 p.m.
- Spread: POR +11.5 (-108); CLE -11.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: POR +440; CLE -590
- Total: 240.5 (over -110; under -110)
Spurs (14-6) at Magic (13-8) — 7 p.m.
- Spread: SA +8 (-108); ORL -8 (-112)
- Moneyline: SA +270; ORL -335
- Total: 235.5 (over -114, under -106)
Clippers (5-16) at Hawks (13-9) — 7:30 p.m.
- Spread: LAC +3.5 (-114); ATL -3.5 (-106)
- Moneyline: LAC +136; ATL -162
- Total: 226.5 (over -112; under -108)
Hornets (6-15) at Knicks (13-7) — 7:30 p.m.
- Spread: CHA +9.5 (-108); NYK -9.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: CHA +320; NYK -405
- Total: 235.5 (over -112; under -108)
Nets (4-16) at Bulls (9-11) — 8 p.m.
- Spread: BKN +8 (-114); CHI -8 (-106)
- Moneyline: BKN +265; CHI -330
- Total: 232.5 (over -110; under -110)
Kings (5-16) at Rockets (13-5) — 8 p.m.
- Spread: SAC +15.5 (-110); HOU -15.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: SAC +750; HOU -1200
- Total: 230.5 (over -110; under -110)
Pistons (17-4) at Bucks (9-13) — 8 p.m.
- Spread: DET -4.5 (-108); MIL +4.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: DET -186; MIL +156
- Total: 228.5 (over -108; under -112)
Heat (14-7) at Mavericks (7-15) — 8:30 p.m. (NBA TV)
- Spread: MIA -4.5 (-112); DAL +4.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: MIA -198; DAL +166
- Total: 238.5 (over -112; under -108)
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