We’re in the final stretch of the NBA regular season.
After six months of basketball, we’ve ignored most of the tanking teams since the new year — outside of ranting about their uselessness — and circled the teams that are either good but need work to be taken seriously as contenders or so good that there isn’t much we can learn about them until the postseason begins.
With less than 10 games to go, the Celtics and Thunder fall somewhere between the second and third categories. Injuries to key players have prevented both teams from revealing their full potential for most of the season, yet the Thunder lead the NBA in wins and the Celtics are second in the East.
That makes Wednesday’s game so fascinating. Neither team has much to prove, but questions remain that only facing top-tier competition can answer: How close to 100 percent will Jayson Tatum be by the start of the playoffs? Can Jalen Williams plug right back into the Thunder lineup after missing most of the season?
Wednesday’s potential NBA Finals preview could get us closer to the answers or tell us nothing at all — like the line for this game (Thunder -2.5), it’s a toss-up.
Thunder vs. Celtics prediction, best bet
It was expected that the rest of the Celtics would need time to adapt once Tatum was back on the floor after miraculously returning from a torn Achilles after just 10 months.
The biggest adjustment has been on offense. Before Tatum’s debut, the Celtics ranked third in the NBA in offense, averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.
In the nine games since Tatum returned — though he has only played in eight — the Celtics have dropped to 16th, putting up 116.6 points per 100.
It’s a small sample size, and the one game he missed came against the Thunder, but that number reflects the feeling-out process the Celtics are maneuvering through as the season winds down.
Tatum jumped onto a moving train, and he isn’t totally sure what things he can’t do now that he could do before the injury.
Trying to find that balance against the Thunder will be even more difficult. The Thunder have the most ferocious defense in the NBA — they deflect balls at the second-highest rate in the league (20.8), force the second-most turnovers (16.9) and hold teams to the lowest shooting percentage in the league (43.4 percent). Plus, they just added arguably their best defender, Jalen Williams, back into their lineup.
The Thunder match up well with the Celtics because they are good at stopping what the Celtics want to do. Boston attempts the third-most 3-pointers in the league — Tatum has attempted a team-high 9.4 3s per game — and the Thunder contest the most 3-point shots in the league.
Betting on the NBA?
The Celtics also have a size disadvantage if the Thunder play both their bigs Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren at the same time.
All those issues were present earlier this month, and the Celtics still nearly pulled off a win, so none of these factors are disqualifying. However, I do think scoring and rhythm will continue to be an issue for the Celtics. They are the league’s slowest-paced team and still need to figure out their offense.
I like the Under here, which has been a great bet in Celtics games all season. Their games have gone Under the total more than any team in the NBA, and even with a total below 220 points, the Under is still 9-5.
The Pick: Under 219 (-110, Fanatics sportsbook)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.