NBA Rookie Rankings: Kon Knueppel, Cooper Flagg are staging an epic duel

This rookie class has been outstanding and looks likely to end up with quite a few NBA All-Stars. Former Duke teammates Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel continue to vie for Rookie of the Year honors. We’ll break down that race in more depth below, but the class beyond them is impressive.

Dylan Harper has emerged in a significant way over the last 25 games. Cedric Coward and VJ Edgecombe have been consistently valuable for their teams. Behind them, I think about 13 players have a fairly reasonable chance to end up with an All-Rookie case, including a few players who didn’t even make my top 15. These rookies and the 2026 NBA Draft class will likely end up refreshing talent across the league in a major way over the next few years.

A refresher on this exercise: We rank the league’s top 15 rookies, based on how they have played in the NBA thus far, not as a projection of who they will become. This is a full-season ranking, not based on “who is playing the best right now.”

What do I look for when I rank players? Minutes and roles matter. What is each rookie getting asked to do? How often are they seeing the court? Are they being asked to create offense? Is their role limited, and how successful are they in that role? How successful is the team with them within that role? What is the degree of difficulty of said role? Is the player logging major minutes on a good team or eating up minutes for a bad team?

This is an art, not a science. The rankings involve examining numbers and analyzing a painstaking amount of tape; I value the latter more.

Let’s dive in.

Knueppel vs. Flagg is the best NBA awards race

In the most recent iteration of these rankings, I flipped Flagg ahead of Knueppel for the first time as the top-ranked rookie after an incredible run by Flagg with the Dallas Mavericks. In the nine games before those rankings were published, Flagg had averaged 27.4 points, eight rebounds and four assists and looked to be developing into the apex wing matchup hunter teams crave across the league. Almost immediately after that run, Flagg missed the Mavericks’ next eight games with a foot sprain. It took him a while to get back up to speed, as he averaged just 15.6 points per game on 35 percent shooting from the field in his first five games back.

But watch Flagg in his two games recently against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and you can easily get excited again. He dropped 25 points, four rebounds and five assists in the first game, then in the second led the Mavs to a surprise win with an absurd 27 points, six rebounds and 10 assists. I think it was the best game I’ve seen a rookie play all year outside of his monster 49-point performance against the Charlotte Hornets, as he pressed all the right buttons as a decision-maker while also playing high-level defense. He followed that up with a well-rounded 21-point, seven-rebound, eight-assist game against the New Orleans Pelicans as Dallas leans more toward him playing on the ball.

And yet, those eight games that Flagg missed and the five rough games upon his return were enough for me to push the ultra-consistent Knueppel back ahead of him for the top slot. The 6-foot-6 sniper continues to play tremendous basketball while helping to lead the Hornets on a charge toward the playoffs. The wild thing about Knueppel is that he just keeps getting better. Prior to three blowout wins this week where the Hornets were able to keep his minutes down, in his prior 13 games, he averaged 21.4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists versus only 0.9 turnovers while shooting a hilarious 51.4 percent from the field, 45.6 percent from 3 on NINE attempts per game (!), and making 78 percent of his foul shots. While his 12 missed free throws in his last 16 games might ultimately cost him the first 50-40-90 season from a rookie who averaged at least 15 points per game in history, it can’t take away from a spectacular season.

Right now, I have Knueppel solidly ahead of Flagg as my Rookie of the Year pick, but it’s not so solid as to totally rule out a late Flagg surge. Ultimately, though, I think the issue that Flagg will run into is that Knueppel is also not slowing down. The Hornets and Charles Lee have figured out how to weaponize Knueppel in creative and fun ways.

There is a very real case that Knueppel is already the most versatile off-ball shooter in the league. He’ll fly off wide pindown screens into 3s from the top of the key. He’ll trail in transition and slow down to force defenders to pick up Hornets filling lanes toward the rim before popping up out of nowhere to catch a wide-open 3 on the break. They’ll use him in guard-to-guard screening actions where he’ll slip to the wing and create an open shot that way. His pump fake is lethal, and his basketball IQ for how to come off screens is even better. If he’s in a two-man game and his opposing player is denying him in a dribble handoff, he’ll simply flare off to the corner for an open shot. If his man is locking and trailing, he’ll fly full speed into a shot where he can quickly plant and fire off of the hop or off a 1-2 step. His footwork is elite, and it allows him to take advantage of whatever the defense gives him because he’s constantly on balance.

Being versatile matters in the NBA. Teams will figure out how to slow down your top option if that’s all you can do. The key is being able to counter what opposing teams present and having more answers to the test than the defense. Knueppel has a significant number of answers to every test, which is what makes him such a lethal offensive player. And it makes him my pick for Rookie of the Year with about three weeks left in the season.

The Harper leap is real

The San Antonio Spurs have brought No. 2 pick Dylan Harper along more slowly than some of the other high draft picks for a couple of reasons. First, he’s dealt with two separate injuries that held him back. In September, he had surgery on a partially torn ligament in his left thumb that held him out for a good portion of training camp and the preseason. He returned for the start of the Spurs’ season, put up double-digit points in each of the team’s first six games, but then suffered a left calf strain that held him out of competition for about three weeks.

In the middle of his time out, De’Aaron Fox returned for the Spurs, and it took the team time to figure out how to integrate Fox, Harper and Stephon Castle together into the rotation. San Antonio is loaded with depth in the backcourt and across the wings, and from mid-December through mid-January, it felt like Harper was often the odd man out. He averaged just 8.2 points per game on 39.7 percent shooting from the field and 22.4 percent from 3 over the team’s 22-game stretch from Dec. 13 until Jan. 25. He had good games, but his playing time was sporadic as the team figured out how to best utilize him.

After a loss to New Orleans on Jan. 25, though, everything changed. In Harper’s last 23 games, he’s been the best rookie in the league not named Flagg or Knueppel. He should be considered a shoo-in for first-team All-Rookie as long as this continues through the end of the year. He’s averaging 13.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists versus only 1.4 turnovers per game while shooting a 58.3 percent from the field and 40.4 percent from 3. Harper has also amped up what was already an impressive level of defensive play to comical levels, as he and Castle combine to make life miserable for opponents at the point of attack with their length, physicality and quickness.

That defensive side of the floor is lights out when Castle and Harper are roaming the perimeter in front of Defensive Player of the Year favorite Victor Wembanyama. Per Databallr, when Harper is out there with Wembanyama and without Castle, the team scores 122 points per 100 possessions and allows just 101. When it’s Castle out there with Wembanyama and without Harper, the team scores 122 points per 100 and allows 110. And when that trio is out there together? The Spurs are pummeling opponents to the tune of scoring 125.8 points per 100 possessions while only allowing a paltry 91.5. It’s a look into the future of exactly what general manager Brian Wright and the rest of the Spurs front office were envisioning when they drafted that trio in the top five of the last three drafts.

I’m not sure I’ve seen a more impressive guard as a driver enter the NBA since at least the 2020-21 season. If Harper had been drafted into another situation where he had free rein over the offense, I think the odds are high he’d be averaging over 20 points per game right now. He’s a downhill slaloming nightmare for teams in transition, using elite footwork and gathers in addition to his nearly 7-foot wingspan to get to the rim to finish. His ability to Eurostep around defenders while maintaining a semblance of power and grace is elite for his age, as you can watch here against the New York Knicks on March 1.

Harper is making about 60 percent of his half-court shot attempts at the rim and creating about three of them per game, a strong number given that he only plays about 22 minutes per night. But if you look at those last 20 games, he’s actually making an absurd 72 percent at the rim, which is essentially what you would expect from a center who’s dunking a significant portion of his shots. As the game has slowed down for Harper, he’s gotten more comfortable using different changes of speed and gathers to get where he needs to go.

The context here is important, too. The Spurs are immaculately spaced right now, with Mitch Johnson and the front office having built beautiful lineups that often feature at least three floor-spacers out there around Harper, with four of his five most common teammates over this run including Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Wembanyama and Fox. It’s sharp lineup management from Johnson to give Harper the kind of space and time that a rookie can often require to adjust to playing against professionals.

We’ve seen everything we need to from Harper this season to buy into him eventually turning into an All-Star guard. Knueppel has been unbelievable and clearly has had a better rookie season. But I’m not sure I wouldn’t still bet on Harper’s career turning out better. I think the world of Knueppel and have long believed people have wrongly doubted his upside. He’s also going to turn into an All-Star at some point. This is more of a statement on how high I think Harper’s ceiling is with his ability to pressure the rim and play at a fast pace while creating high-leverage shots. I might still take him at No. 2 if I had to re-draft the class right now. All Harper needs is a consistent pull-up jumper. If that comes, he’s going to be nearly unguardable.

Riley might be Wizards’ most interesting perimeter prospect

I’m an enormous fan of Tre Johnson, and Johnson ranks ahead of his fellow first-round pick Will Riley here because he’s played all season consistently for the Wizards. Johnson is an elite shooter and looks like a long-term starter for the Wizards who will only be helped by having Trae Young around to create shots.

But based on how quickly Riley has grown into his game over the last two months, I’m starting to wonder if Riley is the Wizards’ most intriguing long-term prospect on the perimeter, ahead of guys like Johnson, Kyshawn George, Bub Carrington and Bilal Coulibaly. Over Riley’s last 23 games, he’s averaging 14.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 46 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3 and 77 percent from the line. But more than that, it’s the way he’s doing that is impressive.

It took me a while to come around on Riley as a prospect last year, largely because I was worried about how his slight frame and inconsistent jumper would hold up in the NBA. Riley has always had good touch, but the mechanics have been somewhat funky and led to him shooting low-trajectory-angle lasers toward the rim. But the reason I came around and had him ranked right in the range of where he was taken by the Wizards was his fearlessness as a driver. The biggest thing that stood out to me was that, despite his size — he’s listed at 6-9 and 180 pounds — Riley played in straight lines, driving toward the rim. His footwork and gathers were terrific, even as opposing players bumped him off his line.

That has held up so far in the NBA. He’s not overly quick, but he’s very flexible and can cover ground with his long strides. He creates angles that you don’t expect and then can counter those angles impressively. But the goal is to always find a straight line directly toward the rim as opposed to taking wide angles on his drives. Here’s a great example against a strong, physical defender in Desmond Bane. Look at how, as soon as he feels Bane slightly off his line going toward his right, Riley counters with a beautiful, between-the-legs crossover and then just drives directly toward the rim even as Bane works to recover.

NASTY work from Will 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/p6imSIcxwz

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) March 4, 2026

Or even this one, which results in a beautiful dump-off pass. Riley sets up the Golden State Warriors’ Gui Santos with a quick dribble to his right before a spin back to his left to get on a straight line toward the rim, forcing the help over from Draymond Green before he finds the pass to Juju Reese. Even though Riley averaged just 2.2 assists per game last year at Illinois, he posted a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and showcased some positive flash passes off his drives that made you buy into what he was capable of in the NBA.

Will dime ➡️ Juju bucket 🪣 pic.twitter.com/pXFVJSIr2d

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) March 17, 2026

Beyond that, Riley’s 3-point jumper has undergone some serious work. He’s getting much more air under the ball, and the shot looks cleaner. The release looks slower as it’s clear he’s still working his way into some of these adjustments, and he’s only taking 4.4 3-point attempts per game in 30 minutes per night in this 23-game stretch. But given his natural touch levels, I believe in Riley at some point becoming at least a passable 3-point shooter as he continues to work through his mechanical tweaks.

Riley still has games that are abject disasters when shots aren’t falling, or when he struggles to deal with the physicality of NBA players on his forays to the rim. His 1-of-12 game against Cleveland before the All-Star break is one example, as is the 1-of-9 game against the Houston Rockets on March 2, and the 3-of-10 game he posted against the Orlando Magic on March 12. When it’s bad, it looks really bad because solid defenders can body up, get their chest in front and stop him from going anywhere.

But by and large, the results look great, and the film looks even better. You can see the outlines of a serious wing shot creator if this all comes together. Riley will have to get stronger, and the shot is going to have to come together for him to become consistent. After all, the reality is that every NBA player can score 15 to 20 points on any given night (for example, Reese’s 18-point, 20-rebound game recently against the Utah Jazz). The difference between a good player, a great player and an All-Star is the ability to string together those performances night after night versus just once or twice a week.

But the first step along that journey often comes with flashes, and Riley’s flashes are among the most intriguing in the rookie class right now. He’s posted 11 games over 17 points in that 21-game run, and has tools as a 6-9 creator in terms of his touch, driving ability and stride length that other players simply don’t have. I wouldn’t project Riley’s future to be an All-Star right now, but I can’t totally rule out that ceiling based on what we’ve seen. He’s nowhere near that level yet, but the pathway exists for him to reach it, and he’s ahead of schedule. I think the Wizards got a real steal at No. 21 in the 2025 draft.

Ranking notes

• Edgecombe stays at No. 3 for his sheer body of work. He’s been asked to step into an even larger role over the last few weeks due to Paul George’s suspension, Joel Embiid’s absence and Tyrese Maxey’s finger injury. While the shot hasn’t been falling (he’s made only 29.1 percent of his 3s in his last 20 games), he’s getting valuable reps on the ball and being asked to create shots. I don’t think his handle is quite ready for that kind of role and responsibility yet against good teams, but he’s at least given the Sixers an option and had some success against defensively challenged teams like the Utah Jazz, Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies, Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers. I’m excited to see him slot back into his secondary role once the Sixers get their stars back into the mix.

• Cedric Coward slips one slot here through no issue of his own play, but simply because I think Harper has been that good while playing for a contending team. Coward has started nearly all of Memphis’ games since mid-November, plays solid defense and has started to even improve a bit as a shot creator. I’ll note that after Coward’s nuclear hot shooting start, he’s only made 29 percent of his 3s in his last 41 games. This isn’t a long-term worry, as Coward has pristine shot mechanics.

• There is a clear line in the sand right now between first-team All-Rookie and second-team All-Rookie. Knueppel, Flagg, Edgecombe, Harper and Coward are clearly the top-five guys. After them, it’s a free-for-all for the second team. I’ve spiked Maxime Raynaud up to No. 6 after he was ranked 12th in the last iteration. I was too low on him in the last ranking set. We now have a sustained 52-game sample of Raynaud averaging 13.2 points and 8.1 rebounds while shooting 58 percent from the field. And since moving into the Sacramento Kings’ starting lineup full-time on Jan. 30, Raynaud has averaged 16 points and nine rebounds while shooting 60.7 percent from the field. It was pretty staggering to me that Raynaud fell all the way to No. 42 on draft night, given that I had a late first-round grade on him, and he’s showcasing why he should have gone earlier. He’s clearly an NBA rotational big with upside for more beyond that if he can work on his instincts and use of angles on defense.

• Ace Bailey moves up to No. 7 because he continues to play well as a scorer for the Jazz. Over his last 29 games, Bailey is averaging 16.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and two assists while shooting 45 percent from the field, 36 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line. I love the way the Jazz utilize him still, essentially limiting his dribbles and making him a weapon as a scorer and off-ball shooter. He’s not quite the level shooter someone like Knueppel is, but he does a good job of cutting off actions and getting out in transition. At some point, he’s going to need to keep adding to his game beyond the scoring aspect, but there is a lot of reason to be excited about Bailey as an off-ball scorer who could very easily average 20 points per game in this scheme.

• The same goes for Tre Johnson, who comes in a couple spots lower at No. 9. He’s been a bit off since returning from injury, averaging just 11 points on 37 percent from the field. But his extended 22-game run before that was impressive; he averaged 15 points per game on 45 percent from the field, 41 percent from 3 and 93 percent from the line. Like Bailey, Johnson will need to improve on defense at some point, but as a scorer, there is a lot of reason for enthusiasm.

• Derik Queen sticks at No. 8 for now because his run of successful play was a bit longer and more sustained than the other rookies so far. Over 38 games from Nov. 4 to Jan. 18, Queen averaged 13.5 points, eight rebounds and five assists while shooting 50 percent from the field. Since that point, he’s averaged just 9.7 points, six rebounds and three assists while shooting 46 percent from the field, and he has probably been the worst New Orleans Pelicans’ rotational player since Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray have been fully healthy. Fellow Pelicans rookie Jeremiah Fears has been a bit better over the last 25 games, showing an increased attention to detail as an energetic defender. It took a bit of an adjustment after moving to the bench on Jan. 23, but over his last 16 games, Fears is averaging 13 points, four rebounds and four assists while shooting 43 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3. If Fears and Queen continue along their current trajectories, I think Fears will pass Queen in these rankings at the end of the season. But for now, Queen’s body of work is just a touch better.

• Murray-Boyles has been injured and hasn’t played since Feb. 25, so he slides back a few slots given how tightly bunched that No. 6 to No. 12 range was last time. The same goes for the Nets’ Egor Demin, whose season is over after a foot injury. Demin will fall short of being second-team All-Rookie for me, in all likelihood, because of that. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Hugo Gonzalez and Riley are the last additions here. Kalkbrenner and Gonzalez have been excellent throughout the season and are worthy of being listed for holding down rotation spots on winners the whole year.