With the Trump administration working to “dismantle” it as a source of “climate alarmism,” the future of the National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) is in jeopardy. That uncertainty impacts the work of people across the weather, water, and climate enterprise, as NCAR plays a keystone role in many fields that affect public safety and scientific progress. Through its programs, its own research, and its sharing of knowledge, facilities, and resources, NCAR advances atmospheric and related sciences and enables others to conduct research and predict environmental conditions. In this second of two posts, members of the AMS community tell us more about how their work depends on NCAR (read the first post here).
Arun Balakrishna, PhD Candidate, Stanford University
PhD candidate who regularly uses Cloud Model 1 (CM1), an open-source atmospheric model developed by NCAR scientist George Bryan.
“My work seeks to understand the mechanisms of low-altitude cloud breakup, which is a key climate system tipping point. NCAR’s CM1 is a state-of-the-art numerical simulation tool that has been used in hundreds of published works [that] further our understanding of the atmospheric system as well as help us develop better … models to accurately forecast future climate given probable emissions scenarios.
“NCAR has not only influenced my growth as a researcher, but has also been a formative force in the field of turbulence. NCAR scientists were pioneers in the field of advanced numerical methods, large-eddy simulations, theory, etc.”
Anonymous, Retired Meteorologist
Former employee of the National Weather Service’s Environmental Modeling Center.
“For 40 years I developed and improved numerical weather prediction for the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) through a broad program of research in data assimilation and modeling [with] public benefit through preserving of life, property, and commerce.
“For example, advanced modeling and scientific research at NCAR, from many published research results at NCAR and in collaborations with the Weather Service, have improved predictions and advanced hurricane warnings from 18-hour lead time in 1985, when I started working on the operational Global Forecast System, to 8-day lead time today. The collaborations between scientists at NCAR, universities, and the Weather Service are responsible for the success in watches/warning forecasts across the United States and the world. The scientific progress in research and educational outreach successes provided by NCAR over decades, without any hyperbole, are a miracle.
“… It was [recently] announced … that the NCAR MPAS [Model for Prediction Across Scales] model would replace the dynamical core of the Weather Service weather prediction model. The MPAS model has been in the making for decades and for weather prediction modeling, this represents a world class advance from NCAR scientists and staff using computational efficiency, advanced mathematics, and physics to bring … a significant improvement over the current operations.”
NCAR leads development of the atmospheric component of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), which runs using a hexagonal mesh that can be stretched wider over some geographic areas (lowering resolution and using less computing power) and compressed over the user’s areas of focus for more detail, as demonstrated in this image. [Image source: MPAS home page]
Anonymous
Forecast model postprocessing developer.
“My work helps forecasters make more accurate predictions of high-impact weather, and it helps them better contextualize forecast uncertainty. This communication aspect, in particular, helps build trust between forecasters and NWS partners, as well as the public as a whole.
“NCAR’s work with developing the MPAS dynamic core (and maintaining/originally developing WRF [Weather Research and Forecasting model]), is critical to my work building forecast tools for National Weather Service operations. In particular, some of my work involves building model postprocessing tools to parse large model datasets down to their prevalent weather scenarios in order for operational meteorologists to better interpret forecast uncertainty. Applying this tool to the cutting-edge, new Rapid Refresh Forecast System consistently reminds me of how vital the work at NCAR has been in developing the next generation of modeling frameworks.”
Kristen Axon, Purdue University, Graduate Research Assistant
Graduate student using NCAR resources.
“My work aims to better understand severe storms, their environments, and their hazards. The more we improve our understanding of these topics, the better we can predict, communicate, prepare, and respond to severe hazards that put people and infrastructure at risk.
“… I have used many datasets from NCAR [and] I am using one of the NCAR supercomputers for my PhD dissertation that requires extensive computational resources that I cannot obtain at the same level at my university. In addition, I have utilized the EOL field project archives to submit and obtain data for research. A vital component of research is access to data, and data with integrity, ensuring trust and reliability of our results. The field of atmospheric sciences would not be what it is today without NCAR.”
Anonymous, Professor of Computer Science, Purdue University
Works in urban modeling and design.
“My [work] builds on and extends current AI technologies to assist with improving the design and planning of current and future cities. As the U.S. continues to urbanize, designing sustainability and energy-efficient cities is critical. Considering the atmospheric component is a key aspect. I collaborate with numerous atmospheric scientists and also with researchers and software products of NCAR (e.g., WRF and its many derivative products). Having this knowledge and technology powerhouse is CRUCIAL to help the U.S. have modern, efficient, and healthy cities.”
Anonymous, Research Faculty, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY Albany
Runs a long-term cloud-chemistry monitoring program at Whiteface Mountain, research from which previously helped motivate the Clean Air Act, and which now monitors growing atmospheric CO2, organic carbon of unknown origin, and even pollutants like nanoplastics and microbes in clouds.
“Atmospheric science is multidisciplinary … and individual research groups within academia cannot do every aspect on their own. The value of NCAR is in the focused expertise accumulated and shared with researchers at all levels, as well as the research infrastructure and publicly available datasets NCAR provides that researchers can use to conduct their own investigations. NCAR further provides a unique environment for stimulating new ideas and collaborations needed to undertake major multi-institution projects and field campaigns.
“My former graduate student worked with NCAR staff via an ACOM visitor fellowship to improve upon and characterize aqueous chemistry in atmospheric models. … That student has fully embraced modeling in his current postdoc position with NASA, using many of the skill sets he gained at NCAR. Another (current) graduate student visited a different research group at NCAR in 2023 via the Ralph Cicerone fellowship. That collaboration allowed us to analyze gas samples collected at Whiteface Mountain for volatile organic compounds, which helped us interpret seasonal relationships in organic acid measurements we conducted on cloud water samples …
“As a graduate student myself, I benefited substantially by working with NCAR. … At NCAR, I built an instrument from scratch and participated in field work for the first time, with the guidance and help of former NCAR staff. Several research papers were published based on this collaboration, and substantial contributions were made to the understanding of cloud condensation nuclei and aerosol mixing state, in polluted megacities and remote boreal forests.
“I’ve participated in many field campaigns … either led by NCAR staff or substantially impacted by collaborations with NCAR staff and/or usage of NCAR facilities to conduct the work.
“An important mechanism NCAR provides … to all researchers is the ability to submit proposals to use instruments and/or research aircraft, along with the staff needed to run the instruments, operate the aircraft, integrate new instrumentation into the aircraft, and visualize and/or archive the acquired datasets, as needed. There are no other programs like this! The ability for anyone to utilize the Research Aviation Facility enables research that would not otherwise be possible. It is an extremely valuable program to the atmospheric sciences community because it broadens participation in the formulation of scientific questions and provides opportunities for the next generation of scientists to gain hands-on field experience.”
Laurel Regibeau-Rockett
Used NCAR resources during PhD research.
“My PhD work examined the response of hurricanes to environmental change with the goal of improving hurricane forecasts and climate change projections of hurricanes. These systems strongly impact public safety and cost an enormous amount of money annually.
“I used the Cloud Model 1 developed and maintained by George Bryan at NCAR for my whole PhD, which looked at the response of tropical cyclones and RCE [radiative–convective equilibrium] convection to environmental changes. I also used output from David Nolan’s WRF simulation of a recurving hurricane for one of my thesis chapters. As such, my entire thesis would not have been possible without NCAR’s work.”
Dr. Bonnie Valant-Weiss, Optical Analysis Engineer, Northrop Grumman
Atmospheric physicist working in the aerospace industry.
“My work has touched on a variety of civil and defense systems for the benefit of U.S. citizens and the world scientific enterprise. The systems I have worked on have advanced the technology of measuring and predicting weather and space weather effects on both populations and payloads.
“I have been using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for 20 years in research and development of ground-based and satellite remote sensing and communication systems. I have also worked in developing space weather measurement systems. NCAR has been a tremendous resource for me to learn about and contribute to these fields, because my graduate work was done in another field of physics.”
Daniel Hueholt, Assistant Professor, Environmental Studies and Science Program, Colorado College
Studies human and ecosystem risk under climate variability, change, and intervention.
“[In studying the risks and benefits of climate intervention with stratospheric aerosol injection], we used the rate at which climate changes to contextualize many different future scenarios in terms of ecosystem risk, finding that stratospheric aerosol injection intervention scenarios with rapid cooling at the start may increase risks to ecosystems over no-intervention scenarios with moderate climate change. Nine of the scenarios we studied were run in CESM [the Community Earth System Model], which is maintained by NSF NCAR. [One crucial dataset] was … run by NSF NCAR researchers for a completely different purpose to which they generously granted us early access. … The openness and transparency of NSF NCAR amplifies the research enterprise of scientists throughout the U.S. and the world.
“… NSF NCAR’s observational infrastructure, data management, and supercomputing resources touch every aspect of American and global Earth science. In particular, the public availability of its resources enable far deeper science at other institutions because they can invest in research as opposed to attempting to maintain their own siloed infrastructure. For scientists like me at small liberal arts colleges, supercomputing resources and data management at NSF NCAR enable me to continue asking questions that rely on orders of magnitude more compute than my own institution could ever provide.
“More than this, NSF NCAR acts as a nexus for the geoscience community … NSF NCAR can play this central role effectively because of its institutional knowledge: it is more than the sum of its parts because all different aspects of geoscience research have existed under a single aegis for decades.”
Read more on AMS’s NCAR Information and Support page.