Newcastle United were knocked out of the Champions League on Wednesday and now have seven games remaining to ensure they qualify for European football next season
19:00, 05 Apr 2026
St James’ Park ahead of the Champions League clash between Newcastle United and Barcelona(Image: Iain Buist/Newcastle Chronicle)
And just like that, Newcastle’s latest forage into Champions League football was over.
In a tie that promised so much over three halves of the two legs, Barcelona brutally dispatched Newcastle last month in the second half of their last 16 second leg at the Camp Nou to run out resounding 7-2 winners on the night and end Eddie Howe’s side’s European challenge for another season.
After 12 games, six wins, three draws and three defeats and pitting their wits against reigning European champions PSG and Spanish champions, Barcelona, Newcastle’s run ended at the last 16 stage, mirroring the achievements of Sir Bobby Robson’s side of 2002/03.
The experience has left Newcastle wanting more but, with seven games remaining of the Premier League season, their chances of securing Champions League football next season look slim.
They are well within contention to qualify for European football in general next season, though, and that has to be the minimum aim between now and the end of the campaign for the Magpies.
In the latest weekly Sunday column from Newcastle United reporter Sean McCormick, Chronicle Live has taken a look at where Newcastle United’s European hopes for next season now lie and explore what scenario would be best for the club.
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Specific scenario that offers fresh Champions League hope
With the Premier League set to be allocated an extra European place in the European Performance Spot coefficient table, it means the top five teams in the division would qualify for the Champions League, a scenario Newcastle benefited from last season with their fifth placed finish.
Liverpool and Aston Villa are both currently in the top five of the Premier League with the Reds through to the Champions League quarter-finals and the Villans in the Europa League quarter-finals.
There is a scenario where if Liverpool win the Champions League and Villa win the Europa League, with both competitions awarding the winners of their competition a place in the Champions League next season, then seventh place in the Premier League would qualify for the Champions League.
UEFA confirmed to the Shields Gazette: “If Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League and finish 5th and Aston Villa win the UEFA Europa League and finish 6th, the EPS would be awarded to the seventh-ranked club in the EPL, in accordance with Article 3.08 and 3.09 of the competition regulations.“
Should seventh place be granted Champions League football based on that criteria, the Premier League’s UEFA Conference League spot would be forfeited, and eighth place would be granted Europa League football if the FA Cup winners finish in the top seven.
If Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, sixth place would be granted Champions League football and the Europa League spot would be forfeited, with seventh getting Conference League football.
Despite Newcastle’s derby day disappointment against Sunderland, the fact remains they are six points adrift of sixth placed Chelsea and four points adrift of seventh placed Brentford and with a strong end to the season it is not an insurmountable gap to reel in.
Exact allocation of European spots by scenario
Standard season
Champions League: 1st to 4th
Europa League: 5th and FA Cup winners/6th
Conference League: 6th or 7th (as Carabao Cup winners Arsenal or Manchester City are already set for European football)
European Performance Spot (EPS) season
Champions League: 1st to 5th
Europa League 6th and FA Cup winners/7th
Conference League: 7th or 8th
EPS season and Aston Villa win Europa League and finish 5th
Champions League: 1st to 6th
Europa League: FA Cup winners/forfeited
Conference League: 7th
EPS season and Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish 6th
Champions League: 1st to 6th
Europa League: FA Cup winners/7th
Conference League: Forfeited
EPS season and Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish 6th plus Liverpool win the Champions League and finish 5th
Champions League: 1st to 7th
Europa League: FA Cup winners/8th
Conference League: Forfeited
EPS season + Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish 5th plus Liverpool win the Champions League and finish 6th
Champions League: 1st to 7th
Europa League: FA Cup winners/forfeited
Conference League: 8th
Why Champions League qualification is so important
Put simply, the finances are so great it gives Newcastle a bigger opportunity of competing with the ‘big six’ clubs.
The Magpies have the eighth highest wage budget in the Premier League and despite making exponential progress commercially in the last four years, they still lag well behind those clubs, and Aston Villa, in terms of revenue generated according to the latest figures in the Deloitte Money League.
Qualifying for the Champions League allows Newcastle to bridge that gap and, the more revenue they generate, the more funds they have to attract quality players in the transfer market and retain their best talent.
This season’s Champions League has seen Newcastle bank around £55million in prize money through reaching the last 16 and should they qualify again, reaching the same stage next season would be the least of their ambition.
Just being in the Champions League is a money spinner, and that’s without the sporting motivation for players, management and fans of seeing their team compete against the best clubs in Europe.
But would the consolation prize be that
But if Newcastle qualify for the Europa League or Conference League, would it be that bad?
It wouldn’t be as financially lucrative and you might have a tougher job keeping players who are attracting interest from Champions League clubs, but on a purely sporting level it presents an opportunity.
The Europa League not only offers Newcastle a realistic chance of winning a major European trophy, but a back door route into qualifying for the following season’s Champions League by winning it.
Since the European competitions moved away from the group stage and knockout format to the league phase and knockout format, no Champions League teams drop into the knockout stages meaning it is just the 36 teams who enter the league phase who can win the competition.
It would mean Newcastle would enter the competition as favourites to win it. Tottenham and Manchester United contested last season’s final, despite finishing 17th and 15th in the Premier League table. Nottingham Forest are in this season’s quarter-finals despite being embroiled in a Premier League relegation battle. Aston Villa are red hot favourites to win the competition.
Similarly, Newcastle would be red hot favourites to win the Conference League, which would also offer a back door route to Europa League football.
Since its inception in the 2021/22 season, English clubs have reached at least the semi-finals in all four seasons with West Ham winning it in 2023 and Chelsea winning it in 2025. Crystal Palace are in the quarter-finals this season and remain on course to preserve that record.
But while on a sporting level it represents Newcastle a major chance of winning a trophy, financially it is not in their interest to qualify for the Conference League.
As explained in this piece last month, new squad cost ratio rules mean qualifying for the European Conference League next season would be a poor result financially and hamper their ability to spend.
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