Oil prices rose on Friday even after Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Russian oil in a bid to stabilise global energy markets.
Brent crude (BZ=F) futures rose 1% to $97.63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) climbed 2% to $97.60 at the time of writing.
The US Treasury Department issued exemptions on Monday night allowing Russian oil stranded at sea to be shipped globally until 11 April. Officials expect the move to add hundreds of millions of barrels to the market, which they had hoped would push prices back below $100.
Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG, said: “ICE brent futures have already breached $100 per barrel and are still supported today, despite moves to calm the markets with the Russian oil waiver and the unprecedented release of emergency stockpiles.
“The market sees this as a short-term solution that does not address the crux of the supply disruption. The crude intermonth spreads for future months indicate an unresolved and continued tightness in supply.”
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Analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS) have raised their forecast for brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71 a barrel from $66. US crude is now expected to average $67 in the final quarter, up from a previous estimate of $62.
Brent is forecast to average $98 a barrel in March and April. However, the bank said prices could climb as high as $110 in an upside risk scenario in which flows through the strait are disrupted for a month.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said: “Multiple interventions, including the unprecedented release of 400 million barrels of emergency supplies coordinated by the International Energy Agency, have not been able to counter mounting concern about severe disruption to global oil output and distribution.
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“A statement purportedly from Iran’s new supreme leader pledged to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz, and with three attacks on ships it has become a no-go area for major shipping companies. It means supplies from Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar are largely stranded.
“While oil from the UAE and Saudi Arabia can be transported through pipelines, overall levels exported are still severely restricted. The strait may be narrow, but its effective closure is having broad repercussions around the world, especially for nations highly reliant on energy imports.”
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