Welcome to week 20 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, which is already interfering with my New Year’s resolutions.
Rather than dusting down my trainers and getting out for a much-needed — desperately needed — run, I find myself ruminating over the Premier League fixtures and how they affect our predictions challenge.
Each week since the season began, four of us — a guest subscriber, the algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and I — have been predicting the Premier League results.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so for example last week’s guest subscriber James picked up two points for being the only one to predict his beloved Everton would win at Nottingham Forest.
It’s fair to say Tuesday’s games were a bit of a struggle. We all backed Chelsea and Manchester United to beat Bournemouth and Wolves respectively. Both games were drawn. Newcastle winning at Burnley and Arsenal beating Aston Villa were the only games to see more than one of us pick up a point.
I was worried that I might have lost top spot to Wilfred by the time you read this — but Leeds helped me out by drawing at Liverpool on New Year’s Day, as did Brentford against Tottenham.
But the games just keep coming, so there’s no time for me to dwell on any of that. This week’s guest subscriber is Hans-Martin, a 33-year-old Liverpool fan from Washington, DC. Over to you, Hans-Martin.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Manchester City vs Chelsea, Sunday, 5.30pm UK/12.30pm ET
Hans-Martin says: Chelsea haven’t beaten Manchester City since the 2021 Champions League final, and given City’s current form, I can’t see it happening now. What could have been a (Enzo) Maresca audition for the City job instead will have the now ex-manager watching from home. I don’t think an interim manager bounce will be enough for Chelsea, but maybe a strong performance will offer some encouragement as they try to hunt a top-four finish.
Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea
Oli says: Parting company with Maresca might make for a more peaceful atmosphere inside the corridors of Stamford Bridge, but it is a pretty shambolic way to prepare for a game of this size. Sometimes players rise to the occasion in these circumstances — I can certainly remember Chelsea teams of the past doing so — but I can see them going the other way on Sunday, particularly with Moises Caicedo missing through suspension. If Chelsea’s players feel sorry for themselves, Erling Haaland and his Manchester City team-mates could have a field day.
Manchester City 4-0 Chelsea
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
At times during that brilliant winning run, it looked like Aston Villa were being powered primarily by momentum, belief and muscle memory. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it does invite different challenges once the momentum is broken by a defeat as emphatic as the one they suffered at Arsenal on Tuesday. This strikes me as a good opportunity to bounce back, given that Nottingham Forest’s mini-revival under Sean Dyche seems to have ground to a halt.
Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Brighton vs Burnley
This is the type of game Brighton tend to struggle with. Last season, they failed to beat any of the bottom three (Ipswich, Southampton, Leicester) at home. They took a long time to get going in a 1-1 draw at home to West Ham recently too. I also feel Burnley are better than a record of two points in 10 games suggests, so, in anticipation of others going for a Brighton win, I’ll gamble on a draw.
Brighton 1-1 Burnley
Wolves vs West Ham United
If Wolves are to finally win a game, they’re not going to have many better chances than this, at home to a West Ham team with big problems of their own. Wolves have performed creditably in their last four games, but I’m just not sure I can see who is going to step up and make the difference for them in a match like this. I intended to predict a Wolves win here, but the more I think about it, the more I have visions of Jarrod Bowen running towards the away fans to celebrate a late winner.
Wolves 1-2 West Ham
Bournemouth vs Arsenal
That was a huge statement of intent by Arsenal on Tuesday, beating Aston Villa 4-1, and if you look at the fixture list, they have already played most of their tougher-looking away games. The next four away matches — Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Leeds, Brentford — will test them in different ways, but if Arsenal are on their game, they should keep picking up enough points to stay on course. Bournemouth away doesn’t look as awkward as it would have done a few months ago when Andoni Iraola’s team were flying.
Bournemouth 0-2 Arsenal
Leeds United vs Manchester United
Here’s an interesting tactical battle: the coach who settled on a back three in desperation against the coach who, in desperation, is struggling to abandon a back three. There is no disguising Leeds United’s upturn since Daniel Farke’s change of system in late November, but Manchester United continue to meander under Ruben Amorim. The last two games have seen Amorim flirt with a back four, but does he really believe in it as a way forward? And having spent so much time — and money — trying to move towards 3-4-3, does anyone really believe him when he says he always planned to move away from it? Uncertainty reigns at Manchester United. Leeds would love the opportunity to capitalise.
Leeds United 2-1 Manchester United
Fulham vs Liverpool
Fulham were one of the opponents who caused Liverpool the most problems last season, and they have come back into form in the past few weeks, so this strikes me as an awkward one for Arne Slot’s team. It’s a short turnaround for both teams after playing on Thursday night. Usually, that would favour the bigger club with greater resources, particularly as Fulham have more players away on AFCON duty, but I’m not sure this Liverpool squad is deep enough to get through this schedule unscathed.
Fulham 1-1 Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland
Ah, home sweet home. Since November 3 2024, Tottenham have played 23 home games in the Premier League and won… four. That is inexcusably bad and it seems to be a self-perpetuating issue. Sunderland are precisely the kind of team who are capable of frustrating them. My only doubt would be whether the game against Manchester City on Thursday night might have taken too much out of them.
Tottenham 1-1 Sunderland
Everton vs Brentford
I was pleasantly surprised by Everton’s victory at Nottingham Forest on Tuesday. After three games without a goal, to put in a performance like that, with a depleted team, was a fitting end to an uplifting year for David Moyes and his players. They could do with a new addition or two in January — I’m sure Moyes agrees — but the next two games, at home to Brentford and Wolves, seem like a chance to keep building momentum.
Everton 1-0 Brentford
Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace
After victory at Burnley, these next three games — Crystal Palace and Leeds United at home and Wolves away — offer Newcastle an opportunity to shake off the inconsistencies that have plagued them all season. I might find myself backing them to win all three. They will probably let me down, but when it comes to playing Crystal Palace on Sunday, I suspect Newcastle will be fresher for an extra couple of days’ rest.
Newcastle 2-1 Crystal Palace