Welcome back to The Athletic’s update on the relegation battle, where our data and tactics writers take a weekly look at the key trends behind the scrap for Premier League survival.
With just two months of the season to go, the margin for error is tightening. Have last week’s results turned the tide?
With the help of Opta’s supercomputer, The Athletic casts an eye over the run-in.
What has changed since last week?
Points-wise, nothing much. Each of the bottom seven teams drew last weekend, meaning that, still, just three points separate Leeds in 15th and West Ham in 18th, with Burnley and Wolves cut adrift at the bottom. That said, there were some statement results to suggest that no one is giving up just yet.
Tottenham Hotspur managed to change their narrative with a 1-1 draw away to Liverpool, and they were largely good value for the result. Mathys Tel set up Richarlison for two excellent opportunities that were not converted in the first half, but the Brazil international punished some poor Liverpool defending in the dying stages to earn Spurs’ first point under Igor Tudor.
Have Igor Tudor and Spurs turned the corner? (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
One thing that Spurs finally improved on was their stronger defensive foundation. Aggressive man-marking and jumping centre-backs in a back three were replaced with a disciplined 4-4-2 out of possession, forcing Liverpool to circulate the ball and set the tempo, which they did not do to great effect.
It was Spurs’ lowest share of possession in a league game that did not involve a sending off (37 per cent), but Tudor’s side sprung forward well in attack with their left side looking most effective — particularly Tel in the first half.
West Ham also cranked up the pressure with an unexpected point against title-chasers Manchester City. Still locked with Nottingham Forest and one point behind Spurs — who play each other this weekend — Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have a chance to make ground as they travel to out-of-form Aston Villa on Sunday.
On another day, they may have been comfortably beaten, scoring from their only shot of the game while they successfully repelled City’s 24. But this was another contest that illustrated the growing familiarity with the manager’s system, as Kostas Mavropanos shone in the middle of a combative back three, while Mateus Fernandes brought defensive tenacity behind an energetic front three.
Leeds looked solid throughout a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace, keeping the hosts at arm’s length throughout a tough second half while reduced to 10 men. Things might have been different had Dominic Calvert-Lewin converted a penalty just minutes after Gabriel Gudmundsson was dismissed, but Daniel Farke will have left south London with confidence that his team can secure the points they need in upcoming home games.
Even rock-bottom Wolves were competitive once again, coming from two goals down to rescue a draw at Brentford. They don’t play again until 10th April — by which point they could be even further behind — but they continue to cling on to the faintest of hopes.
Who is looking stronger?
If you factor in their midweek Champions League exploits, you could make the argument that Spurs are finally building momentum — or rather halting the downward spiral they were on.
A hard-fought draw at Anfield was followed by a 3-2 victory over Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, even though the tie was arguably over after the 2-5 loss from the first leg. Still, it was a first victory for Igor Tudor, with the opportunity to further the happiness this weekend by pulling away from Nottingham Forest while pushing them further into relegation peril. Forest themselves are through to the Europa League quarter-finals but needed penalties to see off Midtjylland last night.
In raw terms, West Ham remain on a strong run of form under Nuno. The only question is whether their uptick in performances is too little, too late — but Nuno’s side have only lost two of their last 12 matches in all competitions.
Crysencio Summerville’s injury doubt may throw a small spanner in the works, but West Ham have offered a much-improved counter-attacking threat since Nuno arrived — as shown by their 10-game rolling average in recent seasons.
It looks almost certain to be too late for Wolves but, statistically speaking, they are the most in-form team of the bottom seven sides after two wins, two draws and just a single loss in their past five games.
Rob Edwards has been realistic about Wolves’ plans in the short and long term, but that 2-2 draw with Brentford on Monday could have easily ended in victory based on the quality of chances they created — particularly in the second half.
Who has the tougher upcoming schedule?
After a gruelling run of games, there is light at the end of Tottenham’s fixture tunnel. They have the third-easiest next five games based on the average Opta Power Ranking of their opponents, with the next four against bottom-half sides.
All the relegation candidates fall in the easier half of the fixture difficulty rankings, but West Ham face the toughest run of the six, with a tricky trip to Aston Villa up next.
Wolves continue to enjoy a favourable run of games, even if survival looks beyond them, and Leeds look well-placed to extend their advantage over the drop zone. But there is only one fixture everyone is circling this weekend: Sunday’s six-pointer clash between Forest and Spurs.
What does the supercomputer say?
With all six teams at the bottom taking a point last weekend, you might have expected little movement in the relegation probabilities. But the manner of those draws matters to the supercomputer’s projections.
Tottenham and West Ham were widely expected to come away empty-handed from meetings with Liverpool and Manchester City, so there was a reasonable expectation that their relegation rivals would make up ground.
That did not happen. Instead, both sides saw their relegation probability fall, Tottenham’s by 5.81 percentage points and West Ham’s by 2.46. Forest, by contrast, failed to make the most of a kinder fixture against Fulham, with their probability jumping by almost 10 percentage points. West Ham are still rated more likely to go down (46.32 per cent), though.
Elsewhere, Leeds maintain that valuable three-point cushion, with their relegation probability falling to 6.62 per cent, while the two bottom clubs still require a minor miracle in order to survive.