Reassessing Science Applications International (SAIC) After Recent Share Price Weakness and CEO Appointment

• If you are wondering whether Science Applications International is attractively priced right now, you are not alone, especially with the stock sitting at US$91.60.
• The share price shows a 1.8% decline over the last 7 days, a 6.8% decline over 30 days, a 9.5% decline year to date and an 11.3% decline over 1 year. This contrasts with a modest 2.5% gain over 5 years and may be changing how investors think about its risk and return profile.
• Recent news coverage has focused on the company as a key contractor in government and commercial technology services, which keeps investor attention on how stable its contract base and customer relationships are. This context helps explain why some readers are revisiting the share price moves and asking whether the current level reflects a fair assessment of the business.
• Right now, Science Applications International scores a 6 out of 6 valuation check score
  

Science Applications International delivered -11.3% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Professional Services industry.

Approach 1: Science Applications International Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to a present value using a required rate of return.

For Science Applications International, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The company’s latest twelve month free cash flow is about $435.2 million. Analyst and extrapolated projections in the Simply Wall St ten year forecast path indicate free cash flow in the region of $580 million in 2026 and $550.7 million by 2035, all in $.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back and combined with a terminal value, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $189.38 per share. Compared with a current share price of $91.60, this estimate implies a 51.6% discount to this particular cash flow based valuation.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Science Applications International is undervalued by 51.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 50 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Science Applications International.

Approach 2: Science Applications International Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Science Applications International, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. Investors usually accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see lower risk, and a lower P/E when they see weaker growth or higher risk, so there is no single “right” number.

Science Applications International trades on a P/E of 11.14x, compared with an industry average P/E for Professional Services of 20.05x and a peer average of 16.61x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 16.05x, which is the P/E level it would expect for this company given factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk characteristics.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry, because it uses company specific inputs rather than assuming all firms deserve the same multiple. Putting the two side by side, the actual P/E of 11.14x sits well below the Fair Ratio of 16.05x, which points to the shares looking undervalued on this earnings based view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Science Applications International Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about Science Applications International, written in numbers such as your fair value, revenue, earnings and margin assumptions. These are then linked to the current price so you can quickly see whether your view points you toward waiting, buying or selling. All of this sits within a tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that updates automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive. It can reflect very different perspectives, such as one investor building a cautious Narrative around a fair value near US$86.80 and another building a more optimistic Narrative closer to US$133.00, each grounded in their own expectations for contract risk, government spending and profitability.

For Science Applications International we have prepared previews of two leading Science Applications International Narratives:

🐂 Science Applications International Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish Narrative: US$133.00

Implied discount to that fair value versus the last close of US$91.60: about 31% undervalued

Revenue growth assumption: 2.01%

• Analysts in this camp anchor on a Fair Value of US$133.00, supported by expectations that sector conditions could stay supportive through the first half of 2026 and by updated aerospace and defense group estimates.
• They refer to a detailed model where revenue growth, profit margins and an 18.07x future P/E multiple are combined with a discount rate of 8.33% to keep Fair Value steady at US$133.00 despite slightly softer revenue and margin assumptions.
• Recent developments such as the CEO appointment, updated fiscal 2026 and 2027 guidance, substantial share repurchases and initiatives like the Alliance for Advancing Rural Healthcare all contribute to a view that the current business setup still supports this higher valuation marker.

🐻 Science Applications International Bear Case

Fair value in this cautious Narrative: about US$86.80

Implied premium to that fair value versus the last close of US$91.60: about 6% overvalued

Revenue growth assumption: 2.02% decline

• The more cautious Narrative centers on a Fair Value of about US$86.80, trimmed from US$94.00, which is below the higher Street price target of US$133 and highlights a wide gap in expectations.
• This view is based on assumptions of declining long term revenue, slightly softer net margins and a discount rate of about 8.50%, arguing that investors may be accepting significant execution and growth risk at prices implied by the upper end of analyst targets.
• Analysts in this group focus on contract and guidance updates, potential pressure from recompete outcomes and questions around growth durability, using these factors to frame the lower Fair Value as a more conservative central case.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Science Applications International? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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