Sacramento State will officially become the 138th FBS program when it formally joins the MAC on July 1. During such transitions, schools often commission studies on the feasibility of an FBS move or a conference change. The methodology can often be confusing — filled with accounting sleights of hand — but they attempt to answer the question: How much will Sacramento State University stand to gain from this move?
But what is clear, according to interviews and analysis by CBS Sports, is that the school may be grossly overestimating its potential FBS windfall.
In the school’s release announcing the move, as well as school president Dr. J Luke Wood’s social media post, highlights theoretical economic impact over the next five years:
- Athletic economic impact increases to $975 million
- National broadcast valuation grows to $675 million
- Game day economic revenue rises to $46 million
- New revenue starting in 2027, 15% will go towards Academic Affairs
Russell Wright, CEO of Collegiate Consulting, told CBS Sports the top-line takeaway of a $975 million economic impact over five years is a mischaracterization of the study they provided to the school, and he was unaware Wood and the school would extrapolate his findings over five years. It is unclear to Wright where the $675 million national broadcast valuation number comes from.
“I don’t think that’s right. That’s not anywhere in our report, so I 100% question that,” Wright said.
Wright was also unclear as to how the school arrived at the “game day economic revenue rises to $46 million” claim.
Dr. Wood did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Athletic director Mark Orr did speak to CBS Sports for an initial interview about the team’s FBS move but was not available for a followup regarding the discrepancies in the data projections.
CBS Sports obtained a copy of the study, which assesses the economic impact of FCS football over the last three-and-half years for the school with “conservative estimates” based on data from previous years. The annual economic impact averaged $62 million per year. Collegiate Consulting was initially retained by Sacramento State in January to look backwards to produce a study on current economic impact. The school later came back and asked for an FBS projection and communicated to Wright that talks with the MAC were heating up.
In a separate FBS projection column, annual economic impact skyrockets to $194,417,500. That jump is primarily due to a 119% projected increase in external revenue — such as tickets, game guarantees and parking — and a 1,312% increase of broadcast exposure impact from $8.3 million in fiscal year 2025-26 to $120 million when the Hornets go FBS. Rounded up to $195 million — a number Orr has used in interviews, including one with CBS Sports — the total annual economic impact multiplied by five — the length of Sac State’s agreement with the MAC — is apparently how the school arrived at the takeaway that “Athletic economic impact increases to $975 million” during its time in the MAC.
Sacramento State athletics annual economic impact
Data below via Collegiate Consulting
| Activity/Event | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | FBS Projection | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics External Revenue (+multiplier) | $8,482,369 | $8,051,181 | $8,606,764 | $7,300,000 | $16,000,000 | $32,440,314 |
| Game Day Revenue Impact | $10,067,429 | $7,205,823 | $7,544,508 | $8,627,029 | $10,500,000 | $33,444,790 |
| SA Tuition Revenue | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $4,597,043 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $18,097,043 |
| SA Volunteerism Impact | $428,090 | $428,247 | $488,026 | $480,000 | $480,000 | $1,824,363 |
| SA Spending Impact | $4,061,179 | $3,927,639 | $4,305,297 | $4,300,000 | $4,300,000 | $16,594,115 |
| Athletic Staff Economic Impact | $26,932,273 | $25,321,479 | $25,710,725 | $26,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $103,964,477 |
| Graduating SA Impact | $3,300,000 | $3,300,000 | $3,352,070 | $3,300,000 | $3,300,000 | $13,252,070 |
| Camp Economic Impact | $625,000 | $656,502 | $407,192 | $223,727 | $650,000 | $1,912,421 |
| Broadcast Exposure Impact | – | – | $2,956,581 | $8,353,800 | $120,000,000 | $11,310,381 |
| Print Exposure Impact | $1,500,000 | $2,000,000 | $2,943,335 | $3,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $9,443,335 |
| Social Media Exposure Impact | $150,000 | $151,148 | $145,249 | $150,000 | $175,000 | $596,397 |
| Streaming Exposure Impact | $8,000 | $8,708 | $9,000 | $9,500 | $12,500 | $47,708 |
| Annual Economic Impact | $60,054,340 | $55,550,728 | $61,065,792 | $66,244,056 | $194,417,500 | $242,927,415 |
The projected broadcast exposure impact line item increase to $120 million rests on assumptions made from television ratings of Toledo, Central Michigan and some Western Michigan games from 2022-2024, according to Wright. Collegiate Consulting had done previous studies for Toledo and Central Michigan and gathered data from an available report from Western Michigan. From the ratings of games involving those three teams, Collegiate Consulting figured that six Sacramento State MAC games broadcast on linear television could do the following in ratings:
- 3 midweek MAC games: 300,000 viewers per game
- 2 Saturday MAC games: 700,000
- 1 Power Four guarantee game: 1.25 million
The initial number, according to Collegiate Consulting’s calculation, actually projected a broadcast exposure impact at $152 million before the firm backed it down to the more conservative $120 million in its final study.
Sac State will not be eligible for a bowl game or conference championship for its first two seasons in FBS. CBS analyzed ratings for 2025 regular season MAC games that were not on a streaming network (like ESPN+) and were on networks that are rated (CBS Sports Network, SEC Network, ACC Network aren’t). The averages for those are significantly lower:
- 13 Tue/Wed/Thu MAC conference games: ~191,000 viewers per game
- 3 Friday MAC games (including non-conference): ~320,000
- 2 Saturday MAC conference games: ~26,000
- 14 MAC vs. power conference/Pac-12 (any day): ~307,000
After CBS Sports sent its findings of MAC TV ratings to Collegiate Consulting, the firm provided revised numbers showing the broadcast exposure was $81 million on the low end and $108.1 million on the high end if Sac State ends up being in the upper third of league TV ratings.
Even a new annual economic impact overall of $81 million is likely overstated without a more robust analysis of multiple years of MAC TV ratings and taking other factors of Sac State’s situation into account.
Projected increases in home game ticket and parking revenue may miss projections over the long term as Sacramento State plays a conference schedule that has no regionality, and much depends on how the team performs after the novelty of simply being FBS wears off.
MAC commissioner Jon Steinbrecher told “Extra Points” that Sac State will see its midweek home games played between 4-5 p.m. PT before many potential attendees leave work. Midweek Sacramento Kings home games are played between 7-8 p.m. local time. Midweek A’s games (temporarily located in Sacramento) typically start at 6:40 local time. The initial study was made under some assumptions, including that Sac State would be playing at 8 p.m. local time, and therefore a late night East Coast window impacting national viewership but potentially boosting local viewership. One of the school’s main talking points is that it is a top-20 television market.
Another overarching question is this is economic impact, but for whom? The study does not aim to estimate economic impact locally to Sacramento. It is unclear how much a Sacramento business owner, resident or Sac State student or faculty member actually realizes a cent of the sky high economic impact projections about which the school is boasting.
“What does this mean if we’re on TV?” Wright said. “We need folks to track how many people are going to the site. How many are students? If it’s some crazy win, do you have an uptick in [donor] advancement? Do you have an uptick in any game day sales? The numbers by themselves, to your point, unless there’s something actionable after the fact it’s not really economic impact, it’s more economic valuation.”
Multi-year extrapolations provide far too many variables to project out a team’s success, particularly in the transfer portal era. All of this also rests on Sac State coming up to FBS and immediately not just being good but being at or near the top of the MAC.
While the benefits may be uncertain and overstated, the costs are not. The move will be pricey, with a $5 million fee paid to the NCAA, $18 million paid to the league (with $6 million due up front) and travel costs of league opponents covered by the Hornets. Sac State administrators claim that none of the money to cover the school’s entrance fee to the MAC or NCAA will be covered by student fees or the school’s general fund but rather from private donations, game guarantees and external funds previously unable to be tapped into.
The timing of the announcement was a bit of a surprise. Sac State moved all non-football sports from the Big Sky to the Big West in 2025. They were denied a waiver to move up to FBS as an independent and did not have legitimate traction with any other league. It seemed like the school was going to play as an FCS independent in 2026 with multiple games announced by their opponents. Within the last several weeks, however, talks with the MAC intensified after optimism from the Sac State side regarding Conference USA around Christmas fizzled. First-year Sac State coach Alonzo Carter told CBS Sports that he was initially expecting the FBS move to happen in 2027.
“2026, I know that’s a fast timeline,” Orr said. “I think it helped that we weren’t currently part of a conference, so we were planning an independent schedule at the FCS level, so there was no conference exit.”
Sac State has language in its 2026 game contracts that allowed flexibility if the FBS move happened to either reschedule or cancel games. Orr is expecting to have a schedule released by the end of the month or beginning of March. He’s also undecided in following North Dakota State’s lead and challenging the NCAA for a postseason eligibility waiver.
“I certainly support the waiver,” Orr said. “We haven’t really discussed if we’re going to file one in addition, or if we’re going to try to partner with North Dakota State. Obviously, we just did our announcement a couple days ago, so we haven’t gotten to that place yet, but I can say, and I don’t mind saying on record, I certainly support North Dakota state’s vision on this.”
The timing does come after the transfer portal window has closed and leaves little time for Carter to augment this roster, but he tells CBS Sports that he entered this year with the budget to go to 105 scholarships and his transfer portal class rating at 247Sports is in line with the rest of the league.
“It’s history, and most important is history during Black History Month, you know when you combine those two things it made it so humbling,” Carter said. “It’s just such a blessing to be in the seat. You know. My kids’ kids will be able to talk about this. We notice the statistics and the number, if I’m not mistaken, I make number 13 as far as African-American head coaches on the FBS level currently.”
He also enters FBS with robust NIL resources. Orr told CBS Sports that the team had a rev share budget of $1.7 million last year, and it’s expected to increase to $3 million in the upcoming year. As for the ballyhooed $50 million supposedly spread out over 10 years contingent on Pac-12 membership raised by a group dubbed “Sac-12,” it’s unlikely much of that money is coming.
Orr made it clear that the group was not affiliated with the school directly, and Cyrus Mulitalo, the organization’s co-chair, told CBS Sports that he’s not sure how much of the initially pledged commitments remain, although he expects the money to still be there because to him, FBS is FBS.
“We’re just going to revisit every commitment and look forward to the new ones,” Mulitalo said.
While preparing for the move, Sac State also unveiled multiple plans for a new stadium, with the current plan being to renovate a former horse racing track 3 miles north of campus. The Sac State athletic budget is heavily subsidized by the university side, which is not uncommon for Group of Six schools.
More than $40 million of the school’s $47 million athletics revenue reported to the NCAA for 2025 is generated from student fees, direct institutional support or indirect institutional support. The team’s football budget is now around $10 million, with an expectation to get up to around $13 million.
North Dakota State athletic director Matt Larsen told CBS Sports that the Bison spent $8.4 million on football in the last fiscal year and are expected to double that number within the next two seasons. Sac State will forgo all revenue distribution from the MAC for its five-year term and cover opponent travel costs, estimated by a source in the MAC to be around $800,000 per year. The travel cost coverage is not unprecedented; Hawaii did that when it was a football-only member of the Mountain West. The athletics department had already earmarked some funds when it was planning to play an independent FCS slate.
Should Sac State choose to leave the MAC before its five-year term, the only exit fee owed, according to Orr, is the remainder of the $18 million entrance fee.