Scope Ratings confirmed Greece’s sovereign credit rating at BBB with a positive outlook, citing strong fiscal performance and continued economic resilience.
The agency stated that Greece’s investment-grade rating is supported by sustained primary surpluses and a steady decline in public debt as a percentage of GDP. It also highlighted the country’s favourable debt structure, characterised by long maturities, predominantly fixed interest rates, significant cash buffers, and a large share held by the official sector.
Scope further emphasised strong European institutional backing, including support from the Eurosystem and funding through the EU’s NextGenerationEU programme, which continues to boost investment, energy transition, and reform implementation.
However, the agency identified key challenges to Greece’s credit profile. These include the still-high public debt stock, which remains vulnerable despite its downward trend, as well as structural constraints on medium-term growth such as low labour productivity and adverse demographic conditions. External imbalances, reflected in current account deficits and a significantly negative net international investment position, also weigh on the outlook.
Scope projected that Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio will decline from around 145% in 2025 to approximately 127% by 2030, supported by strong primary surpluses, improved tax compliance, and favourable macroeconomic dynamics. The agency added that Greece’s fiscal outlook benefits from its highly favourable debt profile, which reduces refinancing risks.
At the same time, large public-sector cash reserves and improvements in the banking sector continue to strengthen financial resilience.
Despite this progress, Scope warned that long-term debt sustainability challenges remain. It expects the pace of debt reduction to slow after 2030 due to moderating growth, rising ageing-related spending, and gradually increasing interest costs. Under its baseline scenario, Greece’s debt is projected to approach 120% of GDP by 2035, remaining elevated for an extended period.
The agency also noted that Greece’s current account deficit reflects strong demand for imports, particularly energy, alongside an economic structure heavily reliant on tourism and capital inflows. Sustaining growth will require continued reforms, resilient investment beyond the NextGenerationEU horizon, and further productivity gains.
Scope warned that a prolonged period of high energy prices linked to the Middle East crisis could disproportionately affect Greece due to its dependence on oil and gas, potentially impacting growth and inflation. While recent temporary price caps help mitigate pressures, they could pose fiscal risks if the situation persists.
The positive outlook reflects Scope’s expectation that Greece could receive a credit rating upgrade within the next 12 to 18 months.
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