Sean Dyche was right when he observed that Evangelos Marinakis was unlikely to sack him on the back of one poor performance by his Nottingham Forest side at Leeds United.
But there is a reason Forest’s match tonight (Wednesday) against fellow relegation candidates Wolverhampton Wanderers feels as though it will carry an additional weight for their head coach. It is not just one game that has left Dyche’s position in the spotlight less than four months into his tenure as Forest’s third head coach of this season, but the cumulative effect of several recent displays.
The former Burnley and Everton manager feels bamboozled by the fact he went from being nominated for the Premier League’s January manager of the month award to facing increased speculation about his future in the space of a few days.
But the theme of dramatic contrasts has been reflected in Forest’s performances under him.
This is a cycle that he needs to be broken if a mood of stability — missing since Nuno Espirito Santo’s late-summer fallout with the Forest hierarchy, the first domino to fall in a chaotic season — is to return to the City Ground.
Before the dismal 3-1 defeat at Elland Road last Friday, Forest had been unbeaten in four top-flight games and in all of them, the 2-1 win at West Ham, the goalless home draw with Arsenal, a 2-0 defeat away to Brentford and a 1-1 against visitors Crystal Palace, there were positives and even reasons for optimism. There were also impressive performances in victories over Premier League champions Liverpool in November and 2024-25 Europa League winners Tottenham shortly before Christmas.
But when Forest have been bad under Dyche, they have been very bad.
That morale-sapping defeat in Leeds was not the first of its kind since his late October appointment.
Forest have been dreadful in a pair of defeats against Dyche’s previous employers, Everton, 3-0 away and 2-0 at the City Ground, in little over three December weeks. They were entirely flat for an hour in the FA Cup defeat away to second-tier Wrexham last month, eventually losing on penalties. Two weeks later, at Braga, in the Europa League, they produced one of the most insipid performances in recent memory in getting beaten 1-0 on a truly dank night in northern Portugal.
January’s Europa League defeat in Braga was a low point for Forest under Dyche (Zed Jameson/PA Images via Getty Images)
Under Dyche, there has rarely been much of a middle ground. His Forest either look like a side capable of getting the job done or one that, at times, do not look entirely sure of what the job even is. The result is that for every step forward, they seem to take a giant step back.
Some of the good feeling generated by the return of a former Forest academy player — along with City Ground legends Steve Stone and Ian Woan as his assistants — has been eroded.
When last-placed Wolves visit tonight, it may not be a make-or-break moment for Dyche, but there has never been a more timely moment for him to get a positive performance.
When he was appointed, following the disastrous eight-game tenure of Ange Postecoglou as Nuno’s replacement, Forest had acknowledged they were in a relegation battle.
The choice was ultimately between Dyche and Roberto Mancini, who has won the Premier League, Serie A (three times) and the European Championship in his managerial career. There was an understanding that the Italian was a high-maintenance character, but that he might also be capable of leading Forest to success in their ongoing Europa League campaign. Forest saw Mancini as a serial trophy winner, who would mark their newfound status as a club back competing on the European stage.
Dyche had previous experience of fights to climb away from trouble in the Premier League table with both Burnley and Everton. Avoiding the drop back to the Championship was the job he was appointed to do.
Initial discussions over his appointment were around a short-term deal, until the end of the campaign, before it was eventually agreed that he would sign a contract until the summer of 2027.
It is still regarded as a surprise behind the scenes, according to club sources who spoke anonymously to protect relationships, that Forest are involved in a scrap for survival with the players they have, following £200million ($273.5m at the current rate) of recruitment last summer. This squad is regarded as the strongest group of players the club has ever had.
Even if Dyche is successful in steering Forest clear of the bottom three in the coming weeks and months — and West Ham added to the sense of angst when they led Manchester United deep into stoppage time at the end before conceding a late equaliser at the London Stadium last night — performances with the tools he has available will need to improve if his job security is not to potentially be further impacted in the summer.
He will not be short of supportive voices among the Forest hierarchy, as he was already well known to chairman Nicolas Randall KC and fellow board member Jonny Owen long before his appointment. But ultimately, it will be one man who decides his fate: Marinakis.
Though global head of football Edu and global technical director George Syrianos both had influence in the hiring of Dyche, it was ultimately signed off by the club’s owner.
Marinakis looks on during the recent 1-1 home draw with Crystal Palace (Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)
And he will be the man who drives any further change if Forest conclude a different manager is required.
Historically, at both Olympiacos in Greece and Forest, Marinakis has armed himself with alternative options, even during times of plenty.
Forest have made it their business in recent months to stay on top of Oliver Glasner’s situation at Crystal Palace. The Austrian — who has already announced his intention to leave the London club in the summer — was high on the shortlist of targets when Nuno was appointed in December 2023 as the replacement for the sacked Steve Cooper, having left German side Eintracht Frankfurt that summer. Glasner will be a man in demand when he departs Palace, but is also unlikely to be available before then.
Marco Silva at Fulham is in a similar position. His contract is set to expire at the end of this season, although discussions have been held over a new deal. He forged a positive relationship with Marinakis as Olympiacos coach for the 2015-16 season, when he led the club to the Greek title. Silva has been in the running for the Forest job more than once and would almost certainly be among those considered as a potential option if it became available in the months ahead.
On Wednesday, Dyche will head to the home dugout at the City Ground for his 25th game in charge, with his side now only two points ahead of Nuno’s West Ham, who occupy the final relegation place. The prospect of someone who was so recently their manager playing a part in Forest’s demise at the end of the season will not be a welcome one to the club’s hierarchy.
“There is always weight (on managers) and you can drive yourself mad with those things. I put pressure on myself to get a result in every game. I go into every game expecting to get a (positive) result,” Dyche said in his pre-Wolves press conference.
“I’ve got no qualms about the noise around me, because I wasn’t coming in (to this job) expecting it to be easy. I wasn’t expecting anything other than it being tough. Not unsolvable, because I think we are solving some things. But it’s been tougher than people imagined.
“I’m the third manager in (after Nuno and Postecoglou), don’t forget, and no one’s quite got it sussed and right.”
It is almost two months since Forest last won a Premier League game at the City Ground with that 3-0 defeat of Spurs on December 14.
Tonight would be a good time for Dyche and his Forest side to get it sussed and right.