Higher-ranked teams Braga, Real Betis and Freiburg were beaten in the first leg of their Europa League ties. Yet, the Conference League is wide open.
| Europa League and Conference League markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Roma vs Bologna – Bologna to qualify | 9/4 |
| Braga vs Ferencvaros – Braga to qualify | 2/1 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk to win the Conference League | 9/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Serious contenders at risk of elimination
Unlike the Champions League, Europe’s secondary club competition had no big victories last week. The only Europa League team to win by more than one goal were underdogs Ferencvaros. The Hungarians take a surprising 2-0 lead to Portugal as they face Braga again this week.
Aston Villa and Porto are both likely to progress after securing one-goal victories away from home. However, the other six ties are poised for highly competitive second legs.
Freiburg and Real Betis both need to overturn 1-0 deficits at home to Genk and Panathinaikos, respectively. There’s a high chance at least one of the favourites in those ties will be eliminated. That would further open up what is already the weaker half of the draw.
Nottingham Forest are another side expected to progress, but they currently find themselves behind. The Premier League outfit had 22 shots and created 1.72 xG in their home first leg against Midtjylland. However, the Danes secured a 1-0 win at the City Ground, leaving them well-placed to claim a major scalp.
Over in the Conference League, Chelsea’s procession in 2024/25 has made way for a much more open 2025/26 competition. Crystal Palace remain the slight favourites to win the tournament outright. However, they have serious work to do in the second leg of their round-of-16 tie against AEK Larnaca.
The Cypriots drew 0-0 at Selhurst Park and were one of several underdogs to earn good results last week. Sigma Olomouc also held Bundesliga outfit Mainz to a goalless draw. Meanwhile, two-time finalists Fiorentina could only beat Poland’s Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 at home.
Which teams are worth backing ahead of the round-of-16 second legs?
On paper, Roma are in a strong position after drawing 1-1 away in the first leg of the all-Italian tie. However, Bologna won’t be fazed, having lost just two of their last 17 away games in all competitions.
They’ve won each of their last four road fixtures in the Europa League. The visitors can also take confidence from losing just one of the last seven meetings between the clubs.
Of the 39 previous matches between Serie A clubs in Europe, only 10 have produced three or more goals. With another tight all-Italian affair likely, the value surely lies with the underdogs.
Over in Portugal, Ferencvaros will need another strong performance if they’re to see off Braga. Robbie Keane’s side have impressed at home in the competition. They’ve won four and drawn two of their six games in Budapest. However, they’ve lost their last two away Europa League games, including a 4-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest.
Braga have averaged 2.00 goals per game in all competitions in 2026. They’ve netted 13 times across their last four home games. With an implied probability of just 33.3%, they are good value to secure progress.
In the Conference League, now might be the time to take advantage of long odds on an underdog success story. Shakhtar Donetsk are one of the most attractive options outside of the main favourites.
They’re leading Lech Poznan 3-1, with AZ or Sparta Prague up next in a favourable section of the draw. The elimination of Palace or Fiorentina this week would boost their chances of getting an easier semi-final opponent.
Unlike many clubs in this competition, the Ukrainian side have extensive European experience. They were defensively solid in the league phase, conceding only five goals. Meanwhile, highly-rated forward Kaua Elias provides a genuine goal threat.
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