Should Bucks hope for lottery? Are Hornets for real? An Eastern Conference Play-In roundtable

The NBA created the Play-In Tournament to give teams added incentive not to tank down the stretch of a regular season, as well as to add excitement for fans both at the end of the regular season and before the playoffs.

The finish in the Eastern Conference should meet league officials’ hopes. There is a frantic race to nab the fifth and sixth spots in the final standings and avoid the Play-In. The current teams to watch: the Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors (36-27) and Magic (35-28) sit in fifth and sixth place, respectively, followed by the Heat (35-28, have lost tiebreaker to Orlando), 76ers (34-29), Hawks (33-31), Hornets (32-33) and Bucks (27-36).

To analyze these final weeks, The Athletic has convened three of its writers — Tony Jones, who covers the 76ers; Josh Robbins, who has covered the Magic; and Eric Nehm, who covers the Bucks.

---

Which of these teams is under the most pressure to not only make the playoffs but also have a decent first-round showing?

Jones: I think it’s the 76ers. On the heels of a 24-58 season, and with the promise shown earlier in the season, Philadelphia has to pay this off with a berth in the playoffs. I don’t think the Sixers have to win their first-round series. But getting embarrassed in a series would be bad. That being said, their injury situation keeps getting worse. The Sixers will play their next two games without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. They have already fallen into Play-In territory. They need to start winning games to keep themselves in contention for that sixth seed and that guaranteed playoff spot.

The Sixers are talented but have not been consistent all year. As such, the next six weeks for them could prove franchise-defining.

Nehm: The easy answer would be the team I cover daily. Giannis Antetokounmpo has always given the Bucks a mandate to compete at the highest level, but they have performed so poorly that the ship might already have sailed for this season. The Bucks have come up well short of Antetokounmpo’s goals for the season, even if his missing 29 games had a lot to do with that.

So instead, I’ll say the Magic. Two years ago, they were the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs after winning 47 games. Last year, they won just 41 games and finished with the seventh seed. Failing to win a first-round series for a third consecutive season might suggest a team stagnated and encourage leadership in Orlando to make some changes in the offseason, whether that would be making roster moves or moving on from head coach Jamahl Mosley after five seasons.

Robbins: The Magic face the most pressure, even though injuries have contributed to their largely disappointing season. Orlando avoided going into the luxury tax this season, which would have started its repeater clock, with its trade of Tyus Jones at the deadline. But with Paolo Banchero’s maximum-salary extension kicking in next season, and with significant commitments to Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs on the books, the team will be hard-pressed to avoid the first apron in 2026-27. Depth has already been an issue this year.

Another problem: the offense, which generates open 3s but doesn’t hit them at a high-enough clip and cannot be counted on in the half court. That’s primarily an issue with roster construction, but it’s also the sign of an uncreative scheme that seems to just give Banchero and Wagner the ball, have a teammate set a screen for a desired matchup and say, “Do something.”

Which team has the best chance at pulling off a first-round playoff upset?

Jones: I’m going with the 76ers again. I know Charlotte has been one of the best teams in the league over a not-so-small sample, but if Philadelphia gets healthy, it has the top-end talent to be a headache for a higher seed.

Embiid and Maxey have been as good, offensively, as almost any duo in the league this season. George is in his comfort zone as a third option. Elite talent wins in the playoffs — it always has. Plus, the 76ers have been better on the road than at home this year. That means they won’t be daunted by having to win away from home.

Nehm: Maybe I’m getting too caught up in the last two months of basketball, but it feels like it has to be the Hornets. Since the start of the calendar year, they have the NBA’s best offensive rating. On top of that, they’re also a top-five defensive unit in the new year. The sample size is getting big enough to suggest this isn’t a fluke. The Hornets are a legitimately good basketball team.

Robbins: It depends on the matchup, of course. Let me point out that the Heat have won two of three games against the Pistons this season. On Nov. 29, the Heat narrowly lost in Detroit 138-135. On Jan. 1, the Heat defeated the Pistons in Miami 118-112. On Sunday, the Heat routed the Pistons 121-110. Just in case you’re wondering, Cade Cunningham played extensively in all three games, though Jalen Duren played just 18 minutes in the Pistons’ loss on New Year’s Day. If the Heat emerge as the eighth seed and wind up facing the Pistons in the first round, that has the potential to be a competitive series.

Which team, if any, would be better off missing the playoffs and getting higher lottery odds?

Jones: Can you imagine the Hornets missing the playoffs, jumping into the top four and snagging Cam Boozer? I would make them one of the favorites in the Eastern Conference next season in that scenario.

The Hornets have proven that they are for real by sustaining good play over a big chunk of the new year. Adding a lottery pick to the nucleus they already have would be an amazing windfall for them.

Nehm: The Bucks would definitely be better off with a higher draft pick. They can’t get the No. 1 pick because their first-round pick is tied up in a swap that will send the best pick between them and the New Orleans Pelicans to the Hawks. Any nudge higher in the draft, though, would be helpful for Milwaukee as it tries to forge a path forward. Whether general manager Jon Horst uses that pick to trade for a star player to play alongside Antetokounmpo or draft a foundational piece for a rebuild after trading Antetokounmpo, each spot higher in the draft matters.

Robbins: Being eliminated from last season’s Western Conference Play-In sure helped the Dallas Mavericks, didn’t it? It’s not reasonable to expect any team eliminated from the Play-In to get as lucky as the Mavericks did. Atlanta could use a second high-upside talent alongside Jalen Johnson, who has made a big leap over the last two seasons. I admire the moves the Hawks have made recently, with the additions over the last year of Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jonathan Kuminga. But every team would benefit from having a second star.

Excluding Giannis, which star player from one of these teams is most at risk of being traded if his team ends this season disappointingly?

Jones: Bam Adebayo. I don’t think he is going to be traded. In the spirit of answering this question, he’s the one I can come up with. The Sixers probably can’t trade either Embiid or George. The Hawks aren’t trading Johnson. I don’t see the Magic trading Banchero.

The Heat are the one team with no obvious direction if things go badly these next six weeks. In that case, the front office could reasonably conclude the core has gone stale. Even the Sixers have the ascension of Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. Every other team in this mix can qualify as young and hungry.

If you need to make sweeping change in Miami, Adebayo is the player with the most value.

Nehm: Banchero. Next season is the first year of Banchero’s five-year max extension worth upwards of $240 million. With that extension, the Magic will be paying four players — Wagner ($41.8 million), Banchero ($41.5 million), Bane ($39.4 million) and Suggs ($32.4 million) — more than $155 million, which is nearly all of the projected $166 million salary cap for 2026-27. That type of financial commitment comes with expectations, and the Magic haven’t lived up to those expectations yet.

How do they chart a path forward? If they have any questions about the fit of those four moving forward, they might need to consider moving one of them, and Banchero would be the biggest star among that group.

Robbins: I don’t see a specific player who would be on the cusp of being traded other than Giannis. So, please allow me to take this question in another direction and point out that the Sixers are in a rough spot because of the massive contracts they gave Embiid and George, and because of both players’ injury histories and ages. Embiid and George would not be easy to trade for excellent draft capital. Philly’s biggest saving grace is that Maxey is a bona fide star and that Edgecombe is a talent, so it’s not as if the Sixers’ cupboard is bare. Still, the commitments to Embiid and George restrict the franchise’s flexibility to move either player for a great return.

Prediction time: Predict the final seeding and the Play-In results.

Jones:  Toronto and Philadelphia come in as the fifth and sixth seeds, respectively. Charlotte comes in as the seventh seed. The Hawks take the eighth seed. Orlando and Miami are the ninth and 10th seeds, respectively.

Miami defeats Orlando. Charlotte defeats Atlanta. Atlanta then takes out Miami, and the state of Florida is left without a playoff representative.

Nehm: Toronto and Charlotte take the fifth and sixth seeds. Philadelphia and Orlando are the seventh and eighth seeds, and Miami and Atlanta are the ninth and 10th seeds. Philadelphia beats Orlando, and Miami beats Atlanta. Miami beats Orlando to secure the No. 8 seed.

Robbins: Toronto and Philly will end up as the fifth and sixth seeds. Charlotte will finish seventh in the standings, while Orlando will be eighth (in part because it won its regular-season series over Miami). Miami will place ninth, and Atlanta will place 10th.

The Hornets will defeat the Magic in the Play-In, setting up a matchup against the No. 2 seed. The Magic will then defeat the Heat in the final Play-In game, setting up a Pistons-Magic first-round series.