00:00 Speaker A
as investors remain optimistic on an interest rate cut next month. Jared Blikry join me now with the trading day takeaways. Jared.
00:05 Jared Blikre
That’s right. We got four days of FOMO.
00:07 Speaker A
Mhm.
00:08 Jared Blikre
If you think about it, that would make a great holiday song, the four days of FOMO.
00:11 Speaker A
Catchy.
00:12 Jared Blikre
All right. So let’s look at the numbers here. We’ll start out with the Dow. This was the least Oh, this is actually the sector action. We’ll start here. Consumer discretionary up 6%. Tesla a big part of that. Materials, healthcare, tech. Tech is number four, and this is uh really indicative of what we’re seeing. A lot of rotation recently. It’s not all about the AI trade. Uh healthcare, which was actually negative on Wednesday, up uh in third place here, up almost uh what is that? 5, 4 and a half, 5%.
00:53 Jared Blikre
Let’s take a look at how the Dow did over these four days, 3.66%, Nasdaq 5%, S&P 500 4%, but it gets really interesting with the Russell 2000, almost 8% there. We haven’t seen four days of 1% plus gains since July of 2024.
01:14 Jared Blikre
Russell 2000 just really coming alive here. and I showed a five-year chart of the Russell a couple days ago. Let me me just show you. we are right back here. Is the Russell ever going to break out? I think we got a decent chance this time, but I’m not going to hold my breath. Um, let’s get back here. I got a couple more heat maps on this particular topic. So, let’s go to my leaders and you can see everything in the green. That’s the first thing I’m noticing.
01:42 Jared Blikre
Then in the upper left, we got Home builders up 10%, innovation, that’s the Arc Innovation Fund disruption, 9%, retail, uh XRT has not had a four-day streak like this in a long time, I believe years. Uh chip stocks, uh micro caps and biotech, small caps and IPO. So really just a broad swath of the speculative universe. And now, here’s my last board. Nasdaq 100. What do you notice here?
02:04 Jared Blikre
Nvidia, didn’t even participate. So that just goes to show you it’s not all about the AI trade. Now, had Nvidia done really, really poorly on its last earnings call, I don’t think we’d be in the same situation, but just goes to show you you don’t have to have the leaders in quotes participating to the upside all of the time.
02:22 Speaker A
Now, what about the pros, my friend? They’re still hedging their bets. We have a lot of side there? Yeah.
02:25 Jared Blikre
Let’s take a look at the options market and that would be volatility as priced by the VIX or as calculated through the VIX and we’re going to take a look at that. We’re going to take a look at the Vix first and then we’ll get the bond market Vix. So here we go. Uh down to 17. That’s a really good space to be in. By the way, this is another five-year chart. Here is the post liberation day sell off and you can see how that dwarfs everything else and kind of puts things in perspective.
02:59 Jared Blikre
But let me bring this down to three months. and we had two volatility scares recently, middle of October and then just a week or two ago in November. But this is really nice because this is what you want to see and what’s supposed to happen historically into the end of the year where volatility just trends down into the very uh final days where you have that nice Santa Claus rally. So things are kind of going, you know, according to script here.
03:23 Jared Blikre
Here’s the Ice BA Move index. That’s also down nicely. That means that bond yields which have been sinking, uh but this is really just gauging volatility. Uh bond yields are not are basically a tailwind for markets. If this thing starts spiking up, that is a sometimes even a bigger headwind than a really spiking Vix. So, that’s on the volatility front. Looks like we’re doing pretty good there.
03:44 Speaker A
How about the commodities? Want to do a check?
03:46 Jared Blikre
Yeah, let’s do that too because the metals today, they’ve been perking up. So, let’s take a look at the futures complex, not just gold, not just silver, but even copper participating today. Just give me a second while I bring up our futures heat map and this is going to be over four days. Let’s bring that down to one. And then in the upper left, second there, not orange juice, that’s OJ equals F, but silver SI. That was up 4%. Then we have uh what’s my next one?
04:17 Jared Blikre
We got to go to copper on the second line there. That’s up 2.28%. Gold also nicely uh rising here. And let me just bring up this silver chart for a second so I can show you what I mean. Uh silver has been consolidating ever since it reached its uh fresh record high here. This was another record high back in October and now it just looks like it’s uh threatening to break out once again. And on the longer-term chart, this is going to be year to date. Let me put some lines back on there.
04:47 Jared Blikre
All this is is a nice little consolidation box. So I would not be surprised to see silver kind of rocketing higher here based on the caveat that you want the dollar to uh I guess cooperate. The dollar has been going down and maybe we got a little bit of time for that at the end. But uh gold and silver, copper, everything’s kind of moving to the upside over the last.
05:09 Speaker A
I do want to ask you what’s on your radar.
05:10 Jared Blikre
Yeah. So, I will be watching Bitcoin tomorrow. I will be watching Yahoo Finance on Friday. Uh Jared B will be filling in for you uh on Friday. And uh let’s take a look at the dollar here because uh I think I outlined my thesis the other day. Here’s a year to date chart. Now, the dollar has basically been uh putting in this rounded bottom uh over the last several months and that just looks like a lot of sideways action, but it’s poised now to kind of spike higher.
05:43 Jared Blikre
And I think if it does that, it’s going to catch a lot of Wall Street off sides. Wall Street is not positioned for it. short dollar has been one of the big trades of the year. And if that happens, then that’s going to put a cabosh not only on uh the gold trade, the silver trade, potentially, but I think really crypto and crypto is where we’re going to see that uh dollar strength affect things the most.