Tesla (TSLA) will release first quarter deliveries on Thursday, with another slip in sales expected in a challenging EV landscape.
Tesla is expected to deliver 364,645 vehicles globally in Q1 per Bloomberg consensus, up nearly 9% year over year, though the company’s total from last year was down due to the changeover to the new Model Y, which impacted sales.
Tesla’s expected total for Q1 2026 is only up marginally compared to a poor quarter for the company. In addition, a year ago backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s role in the White House was at its highest, with protests at Tesla dealerships around the globe.
And for the second time, the company published its own sales estimates tabulated from Wall Street estimates. Tesla’s own consensus average comes in at 364,645 global deliveries.
Tesla’s US sales have tumbled in the US since the loss of the federal EV tax credit at the end of the third quarter. Q3 deliveries jumped to 497,000 units, but Q4 deliveries slipped to just 418,000, typically a strong quarter for the company.
Tesla’s European woes have taken a toll on the company, though in February its sales rebounded after massive slump, snapping a losing streatk that began back in December 2024. The Musk effect, increasing competition from the likes of Volkswagen and Chinese automakers like BYD, are hurting Tesla’s competitiveness.
In Asia, Tesla is facing intense pressure from domestic EV companies which are undercutting Tesla in price and features, for nearly identical cars.
Overall, heading into 2026 Tesla has posted two consecutive years of declining deliveries, after hitting a peak of 1.81 million delivered in 2023. The tally from 2024 fell to 1.79 million, and 2025’s total dipped to 1.64 million. Wall street analysts expect Tesla’s 2026 total to rise slightly to 1.69 million, though this number will be adjusted once Tesla’s official numbers come out.
Despite the sales slump, Tesla’s stock is still up nearly 35% over the past year, even with a 20% slide to start 2026. Investors are betting a future of autonomous driving, robotaxis, Optimus robots, and even Musk’s SpaceX IPO to boost the company’s prospects.
Pras Subramanian is the Lead Transportation Reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.
Click here for the latest technology news that will impact the stock market
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance