The £85m Champions League payday Manchester United miss if they exit the Europa League

It is a night that could define both this season and next at Old Trafford.

Last week’s 2-2 draw in Lyon has left Manchester United’s progression to the Europa League semi-finals hanging in the balance, and Ruben Amorim’s side must go through to have any chance at all of playing European football again next term.

The Premier League is now certain to receive an extra spot in next year’s Champions League, but United’s hopes of taking advantage of that and finishing as high as fifth place were extinguished months ago.

Their chances of a sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth-place finish, which may be enough for a Europa League or Conference League berth, are almost just as remote.

In fact, Opta Analyst’s supercomputer gives Amorim’s side only a 1.2 per cent chance of finishing in the top half. Ten points adrift of 10th-place Brighton and Hove Albion, United’s first lower mid-table finish of the Premier League era appears all but certain.

A route back into Europe through the FA Cup was closed off last month following the fifth-round penalty shootout defeat by Fulham. Winning the Europa League to secure qualification for next season’s Champions League is the only realistic path back into Europe remaining. Lose to Lyon and that back-door route slam will shut too.

Next season could be the first that United spend out of Europe since 2014-15. Before that, you have to go back to 1989-90 to recall a time when the club was not competing in a continental competition.

That is a problem, because amid a climate of belt-tightening and penny-pinching at Old Trafford after years of wasteful spending, United need the riches that European football — and particularly the Champions League — brings more than ever.

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How much would United earn from qualifying for the Champions League?

United could expect to earn around £85.8m as a minimum if they qualify for next season’s Champions League by winning this season’s Europa League.

As part of the expansion to a new, 36-team format this season, UEFA increased the total amount of money distributed to clubs competing in the Champions League to €2.5billion (£2bn; $2.6bn).

Around a quarter of that is shared equally among the 36 clubs, with each receiving a €18.6m starting fee. Clubs also receive performance-related payments depending on how far they progress.

The rest of the money — around 35 per cent of that €2.5bn — is paid out on the basis of a club’s historic European performances and their share of the wider broadcasting market, through what UEFA calls the ‘value pillar’.

It is difficult to say precisely how much United would earn through the value pillar next season as the exact amount depends on which other English clubs qualify, the size of the broadcasting markets, and the ever-shifting five-year and 10-year club coefficient ratings.

Elite clubs generally do well out of the value pillar, though, given its focus on historic performances. If United had qualified for this year’s Champions League, they would have received around €39.7m and can expect a similar figure next season if they qualify.

Winning this season’s Europa League would come with its own prize money. Another €17.2m is on offer if Amorim’s side can come through the quarter-finals to win the final in Bilbao in May, on top of what United have earned already.

Securing European qualification would also mean at least an additional four games at Old Trafford next season, worth around £20.8m in matchday takings.

That amounts to £85.8m in matchday, broadcasting and prize money revenues earned through Champions League qualification, with even more on offer in performance-related bonuses if they progress through next season’s competition.

Amorim made no secret of the effect that Champions League football would have on United’s finances when asked about its importance at his pre-match press conference before Thursday’s second leg.

“It is more about the budget,” he said. “That is important when you are planning the next season. Champions League can change everything.”

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How much would missing out on the Champions League cost United?

No Champions League football would damage United commercially, not only making the club a less attractive prospect to potential sponsors but also allowing existing partners to claw money back.

During the summer of 2023, United renewed their partnership with kit supplier Adidas until 2035 in a deal worth £90m ($114.3m) per year. As part of the extension, a £10m deduction can be made in every season that United do not qualify for the Champions League.

This clause replaced a similar provision in the previous £75m-per-year Adidas deal, which applied a 30 per cent cut if United spent two or more years outside of Europe’s elite.

United always managed to avoid going two consecutive years with no Champions League football under the old deal’s terms, narrowly escaping a deduction when they won the Europa League in 2017 and when securing a top-four finish on the final day of the 2019-20 season.

Fortunately, United also avoided a £10m penalty this season under the terms of the new deal because the clause is only effective from the 2025-26 campaign onwards.

But there is now a real risk that a deduction will be applied to Adidas’ contract for the first time next season.

To put that figure in context, United expect to earn around £8million from their post-season tour of Kuala Lumpur and Hong Kong, announced last week. Adidas’ penalty would swallow that up.

Putting the commercial impact to one side, though, United would be hit hardest in terms of broadcasting and matchday revenues, as the club helpfully illustrates every year in their annual report for investors.

United’s combined European-related matchday and broadcasting revenues during the post-Sir Alex Ferguson era reflect the inconsistency on the pitch.

Their run to the Champions League quarter-finals during the 2018-19 season — courtesy of that epic last-16 win over Paris Saint-Germain — generated a healthy £93.1m in European-related revenues, United’s highest of the past decade.

But as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side failed to achieve a top-four Premier League finish that year and only qualified for the Europa League, that figure fell to just £20.9m in the following season.

This drop-off was exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to United’s Europa League knockout ties to be played behind closed doors after the end of the financial year, but similar falls occurred in other seasons when United played outside of Europe’s elite.

On average, United’s European-related revenues fall by £37.6m in the years they play in the Europa League rather than the Champions League.

And of course, no European football whatsoever would mean next to no European-related revenues at all. That £1.9m earned in 2014-15 was simply money related to the previous season’s run to the Champions League quarter-finals.

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How could United make up for the loss of Champions League money?

United offset the damage of missing out on Champions League revenues by applying a 25 per cent cut to the majority of salaries across the first-team playing squad.

And, although there is nothing like the same money on offer for competing in the Europa League, those revenues have at least helped to bridge some of the gap in the past.

But the 25 per cent cut is already in effect this season after last year’s eighth-place finish, while United’s dismal results mean they may not even have the Europa League to fall back on next term.

United slipped into the red the last time they spent a season out of Europe, posting a small £895,000 loss back in 2014-15. After trophy-laden decades of success on and off the pitch, the club was able to stomach the financial hit, stay competitive, and a typically busy summer transfer window followed.

Yet after five consecutive years of losses totalling £373m, that is no longer guaranteed. If you want to consistently spend like a Champions League club, you need to consistently be a Champions League club.

For United, regularly playing among Europe’s elite is more vital than ever. But fail to progress past Lyon on Thursday night and they will spend a second consecutive season on the outside looking in.

(Photo: Ibrahim Ezzat/NurPhoto via Getty Images)