Sunday, March 15

The Bull Case For Loma Negra (LOMA) Could Change Following Margin Squeeze And Weaker 2025 Cement Demand


  • Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima has released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, reporting Q4 sales of ARS 225,233 million and net income of ARS 6,245 million, with full-year sales of ARS 848,087 million and net income of ARS 23,585 million, all lower than the previous year.

  • The earnings release underscored a 4.4% contraction in the cement business, a sharp EBITDA margin squeeze from inflation-driven costs, and management’s emphasis on Argentina’s slower-than-expected economic recovery despite progress on leverage and CO2 emission reductions.

  • We’ll now examine how the weaker cement volumes and margin compression reported in Q4 2025 affect Loma Negra’s existing investment narrative.

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To own Loma Negra today, you need to believe in a gradual improvement in Argentina’s construction demand while accepting earnings volatility tied to cement volumes and inflation-sensitive costs. The latest Q4 2025 results, with lower sales and sharply weaker net income, reinforce that the key short term catalyst remains a sustained rebound in cement volumes, while the biggest near term risk is prolonged margin pressure from inflation-driven input costs and a slower-than-hoped local recovery.

The Q4 and full year 2025 earnings announcement is central here, as it pairs a 4.4% contraction in the cement business with clear margin compression and much lower EPS, testing earlier optimism around volume recovery and pricing. At the same time, management pointed to manageable leverage and progress on CO2 reductions, which matters for investors who see long term value in Loma Negra’s role in Argentina’s construction chain but need to weigh that against the earnings setback.

Yet investors should be aware that Loma Negra’s exposure to Argentina’s macro volatility and inflation driven cost swings could…

Read the full narrative on Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima (it’s free!)

Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima’s narrative projects ARS956.1 billion revenue and ARS155.6 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 12.7% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about ARS103.8 billion from ARS51.8 billion today.

Uncover how Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima’s forecasts yield a $14.82 fair value, a 48% upside to its current price.

LOMA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
LOMA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Loma Negra span from US$5.31 to US$14.82, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Against that spread, the latest earnings driven margin squeeze and softer cement volumes raise fresh questions about how quickly any volume led catalyst might feed through to more resilient profitability, so it makes sense to compare several of these community viewpoints before forming your own view.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima – why the stock might be worth 47% less than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include LOMA.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com



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