The emergence of a party led or inspired by Maria Karystianou, until recently the head of the association representing families of victims of the Tempe rail disaster, has turned the tables on the Greek political scene, making it even more fluid and complex.
As many were predicting, and recent polls have confirmed, ruling New Democracy is still leading by a safe margin, but is now polling around 23%. That means it is far from being able to form a government by itself as has been the case since it came to power in 2019.
ND is clearly ahead of the three parties that follow, with percentages that, at this stage at least, fluctuate around roughly 13%.
This could very well change in the coming months, possibly with a strengthening of the Karystianou “wave” at the expense of leftist Course of Freedom and nationalist Greek Solution, as Karystianou, who seems capable of exceeding 20%, draws her support from across the political spectrum.
In any case, the competition for second place will be intense. PASOK will present itself as the only alternative of political stability and continuity. Alexis Tsipras will offer himself as an attempt at a restart by an experienced former prime minister who has moved toward the center. And Karystianou will most likely be seen as the preeminent exponent of an effort not part of and untainted by the “corrupt” political system.
For its part, New Democracy, seeing the prospect of one-party rule receding, would opt for leading a coalition government with PASOK. In this hypothetical scenario it would prefer the latter not to be the second, but rather ending up as the third or even fourth party in votes, as that would strengthen ND’s negotiating position if and when the issue of a coalition government arises.
Besides, it is extremely difficult, if not practically impossible, to imagine a government where ND would coexist with either Tsipras’ center left party to-be, or Karystianou’s, despite the latter’s conservative leanings.
Karystianou, who is a doctor, drew criticism Monday from government and opposition figures for describing in an interview abortion as a matter for public consultations, saying that the issue is complex because it involves both women’s rights and the rights of the embryo and while women can decide about their own bodies, abortions do raise ethical questions.
Another dimension of the ongoing political turmoil is that five smaller parties – Niki, Movement for Democracy, Voice of Reason, MeRA25, New Left – which are hovering around the 3% threshold for entry into Parliament, are in danger of not exceeding it and as a result could end up outside Parliament.
What looks certain is that in the next Parliament there will once again be (too) many parties with all the shortcomings this implies for the possibility of forming a government as well as for the ability to have an effective opposition.