Commodities are waking up — and it’s more than just gold (GC=F) and crude oil (CL=F).
The long downtrend in commodities versus stocks that followed the 2008 global financial crisis is starting to crack.
The setup looks a bit like an echo of how this century began: After the 1999-2000 bottom, commodities broke higher for nearly a decade. Gold led first, energy followed, and the move eventually spread into food.
That stretch became what’s called a commodities supercycle — a long period when raw materials prices surge as supply and demand remain structurally imbalanced.
This year, we’ve already seen metals rip to record highs. Now energy is joining in.
The next tell is grains (ZC=F, ZW=F, ZS=F). They’ve rallied this year, but not in a way that screams broad food inflation.
Still, that’s the area to watch, especially after the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could hit energy, fertilizer, and the wider agrifood system.
This breakout attempt gets more convincing if commodities keep clearing old highs and continue to outperform stocks, whether equities stay weak or simply can’t keep up.
If that strength spreads into grains, inflation stops being mainly a market story and becomes the kind of pressure governments ignore at their peril.
Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.
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