One draw is all it takes.
The Premier League is on the cusp of securing an additional Champions League place, with just one draw required from any single leg involving its five remaining clubs in European competition. Even in the doomsday scenario where they lose every single remaining game, it is incredibly unlikely that they would miss out.
When the Champions League expanded from 32 to 36 teams for last season, two of the four extra places were awarded based on the UEFA season coefficient, a convoluted system that measures each country’s collective performance across the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League. Last season, England topped the list ahead of Spain, granting Champions League berths to the fifth-placed sides in both leagues: Newcastle United and Villarreal.
Having four teams crash out of the Champions League this week was a bruise to the Premier League’s ego, but overall it was a more respectable showing on the continent than last week, when Aston Villa were the only side to win, beating Lille 1-0 away in the Europa League.
Newcastle suffered a heavy 7-2 defeat in Barcelona, Manchester City lost again to Real Madrid, and Chelsea were beaten 3-0 at Stamford Bridge by Paris Saint-Germain. Liverpool, though, overturned a 1-0 first-leg deficit to sweep aside Galatasaray 4-0, while Tottenham Hotspur restored some credibility with a 3-2 win over Atletico Madrid despite still going out. Arsenal also impressed, beating Sporting CP 2-0.
Nottingham Forest, along with Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, progressed to a European quarter-final on Thursday night (Patrik Lundin/Getty Images)
It was in Europe’s second- and third-tier competitions where Premier League sides dominated, with Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest advancing to the Europa League quarter-finals, and Crystal Palace reaching the same stage in the Conference League after a 2-1 extra-time win over AEK Larnaca.
These results leave England with a UEFA season coefficient of 24.79, a total that only Spain and Portugal can still surpass. Last week, Germany, Italy and France were just about within striking distance, but a combined seven eliminations across the three competitions have ended their hopes of overtaking.
So how are those UEFA season coefficient points calculated, you ask, shaking with unbridled excitement? Let’s quickly run through the maths. Wins in each competition are worth two points, with draws worth one (these figures are halved in the qualifying and play-off rounds).
Bonus points are then awarded based on league-phase standings and progression through the knockout rounds. Arsenal, for example, were awarded 12 points for finishing top of the league phase, part of a sliding scale in which the bottom side receives six. A further 1.5 points are available for each step through the knockout stage. These bonus points are halved in the Europa League and reduced to a third in the Conference League.
Finally, each country’s total is calculated by adding together the points earned by its clubs and dividing by the number of teams it had competing in Europe that season. England has nine teams across all competitions — more than any other nation — meaning each individual win is worth slightly less as it gets divided by a larger number.
On the surface, it looks plausible that Spain and Portugal could both overtake England, with their maximum average coefficients each over a point above England’s current total.
But logically, it is impossible for both to reach those maximum scores, as they cannot win the same competition. Sporting will face either Atletico Madrid or Barcelona in the semi-finals if they overcome Arsenal, while Braga are up against Real Betis in the Europa League quarter-finals.
The graphic below gives all possible coefficient scores that Spain and Portugal can jointly achieve, illustrating how gains for one country limit the other’s maximum. The red dot marks England’s current score, which a draw would move beyond the combined reach of both countries, even if either could still surpass it individually.
There are, however, five of the 4,710 possible score combinations in which England would miss out if they fail to draw or win again.
But these slivers of Iberian hope rely on Portuguese and Spanish sides essentially winning every remaining game when not facing each other. Both the Champions League and Europa League finals would need to be contested exclusively by Spanish and Portuguese teams, while Rayo Vallecano would have to reach the Conference League final.
Aside from these incredibly unlikely almost-flawless runs across all three competitions, the Premier League’s extra Champions League place is home and hosed. Attention now turns to which Premier League club — possibly including the likes of Brentford and Everton — will seize it.