This NBA season is nearly complete. Every team around the Association has fewer than 10 games remaining on the schedule. There’s still plenty to be won down the stretch; most playoff spots still must be clinched and battles for seeding in both conferences will be fierce, potentially up until the final game of the regular season on April 12. Despite the season winding down, however, the MVP race has never been hotter.
For much of this season Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the favorite to go back-to-back and win a second consecutive MVP. Nikola Jokić figured to be his only primary source of competition but lost momentum after missing a month with a hyperextended knee. There were upstart candidates like Jaylen Brown in Boston and Cade Cunningham in Detroit yet it was still largely considered a two-horse race that became SGA’s to lose after Jokić got hurt.
That has changed in a big way since the All-Star break. Victor Wembanyama burst onto the scene with a stellar stretch of consistent two-way excellence and was bold enough to state his case publicly. Luka Dončić caught fire in every way possible, turning the Lakers from a talented yet inconsistent team into a genuine contender in the process. All that paired with news of Cunningham’s collapsed lung that will likely eliminate him from end-of-season awards and the MVP ladder has been altered drastically in recent weeks.
Thus, it feels like a good time to check in on the race after my colleague Blake Silverman did so coming out of All-Star weekend. Here’s a look at the top five NBA MVP candidates in order, as well as a pulse check with how each candidate holds up against the league’s eligibility requirement for postseason awards:
5. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
65 games played, 28.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.2 apg, 47.7 FG%, 34.2 3P%, 80.2 FT%
With Cunningham all but certain to be ineligible for MVP due to games played, Brown takes his spot on the ladder. The Celtics have vastly exceeded expectations thanks to his excellent play all season long. The star wing has taken a big leap as a creator with a career-high mark in assists per game and ranks fifth in points per game despite being the primary focus of opposing defenses nightly for the first time ever. Brown has been outstanding no matter how you slice it.
But he isn’t likely to finish higher than fifth in MVP voting. His stats have been taken down a notch with Jayson Tatum’s return to the court; the Celtics have continued to win regardless but counting numbers are a big part of the MVP conversation. Plus, after missing Friday night’s game with Achilles tendonitis, there’s a strong possibility the franchise encourages Brown to take it easy down the stretch of this year after already hitting the 65-game mark.
4. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
59 games played, 27.9 ppg, 12.8 rpg, 10.8 apg, 57.4 FG%, 38.5 3P%, 82.7 FT%
Despite being on pace to finish with the fewest games played of his entire career thus far, Jokić has put forth another absurd statistical campaign. The Denver star leads the NBA in rebounds and assists per game while ranking seventh in points per game. His 50 double-doubles are trail only Karl-Anthony Towns for the NBA lead and his 31 triple-doubles lap the field several times; Hawks star Jalen Johnson ranks second with 13 such performances. Everything you expect from Jokić is what we’ve gotten this season and with the Nuggets finally getting back to full health recently he’s put up some special numbers—in his last three games Jokić is averaging 26.3 points, 17.7 rebounds and 16.0 assists.
However, Jokić’s past works against him here. With three MVP awards already he has to exceed his own sky-high expectations to win a fourth and his season numbers, while outrageous for anybody else, are actually down a touch year-over-year in some categories like points per game, three-point percentage, and effective field goal percentage. That combined with the occasionally significant struggles the Nuggets went through despite his presence on the court this year means his case isn’t as strong as it normally is. (Unless he averages 25/15/15 for the rest of the season. In which case everyone else should probably just pack it up.)
3. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
58 games played, 24.2 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 3.1 bpg, 50.5 FG%, 35.1 3P%, 81.8 FT%
Wembanyama believes he deserves strong consideration for MVP. We at Sports Illustrated agree. The 22-year-old superstar is the best defensive player in the league, leading the NBA with 3.1 blocks per game and his simple presence in the paint deters more shot attempts than any rim-protector in recent memory—perhaps ever. He chips in plenty on the offensive end, too, both stats-wise and gravity-wise; defenses are forced to scramble when Wemby gets anywhere near the rim, otherwise it’s too easy a bucket for the 7-foot-4 star. His strongest argument lays in the win column, though. Wembanyama is the driving force behind the second-best team in the NBA in San Antonio and will lead the Spurs back to the playoffs for the first time in six years.
Wembanyama’s case isn’t iron-clad, though. Young stars very rarely win MVP—he’d be the youngest ever to win the award if he brought home the hardware this year. It’s difficult for a player of his age to overcome more established superstar talents in the minds of voters. Furthermore, while he was right to note there’s more to offense than counting numbers, his 24.3 points per game would be the fewest from an MVP in over a decade. Offensive production is weighed more heavily than anything in today’s league and he lags behind in that area. Wembanyama’s great year will have him neck-and-neck with Jokić for a top-three finish but higher than that is too big of an ask for the young, dominant center.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
62 games played, 31.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 6.6 apg, 55.3 FG%, 37.9 3P%, 88.4 FT%
Gilgeous-Alexander’s amazing season is worthy of MVP talks and nobody should be upset if he brings home a second trophy. In fact, his MVP case is arguably better than it was last year in light of how weak his supporting cast has been at times. SGA has balled out and will lead the Thunder to another 60-win campaign despite missing his co-star, Jalen Williams, for almost all of the season. The key rotation players that helped power OKC to a title have all taken turns in and out of the lineup. Despite all that Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring prowess remains unmatched and the Thunder are regularly dominating the opposition. He has a worthy claim to being the best scorer in the league between his output, efficiency and perception that he is entirely unstoppable when in need of a bucket.
At this point SGA and Dončić are neck-and-neck for pole position in MVP talks. It will be a mighty difficult choice for the voters. But for our money, SGA’s outstanding consistency takes a slight backseat to the supernova occurring in Los Angeles as we hit the final stretch of the season.
1. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
62 games played, 33.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 8.2 apg, 47.6 FG%, 36.6 3P%, 77.6 FT%
After Dončić scored 41 points to beat the Nets on Friday night, he dryly noted “the better I play, the more I go down in rankings, so I don’t know what more I can do.” Not in these rankings, Luka.
His excellent showing to beat Brooklyn is just one of a number of incredible performances from the Slovenian superstar since the All-Star break. Highlights include: dropping 60 points on 18-for-30 shooting to beat the Heat, becoming the first player since Michael Jordan to average 40 points per game over the course of a six-game road trip and leading the Lakers on a nine-game win streak. His season stats listed above are already outrageous and his 33.7 points per game lead the NBA by a generous margin. But just in the month of March Dončić is averaging 37.2 ppg with four 40-point games, a 51-point game and the above 60-point game. His Lakers have won more games than any other team in the last four weeks.
It’s fair to say one great month shouldn’t outweigh a season’s worth of work. But Dončić has been statistically dominant all season long, his team is winning a lot of games with the playoffs approaching and the last month hasn’t just been great—it’s been historic in several different ways. If the season ended today, it’s hard to consider anyone else the favorite.