On Monday night, Victor Wembanyama made the unusual move of stating his MVP case both on and off the court.
The Spurs superstar posted 26 points, 15 rebounds and five blocks to lead his team to a win over the Heat in merely 26 minutes of play. San Antonio outscored Miami by 19 points when the tall Frenchman was on the floor. It was the dominant two-way display we’ve become accustomed to seeing out of Wembanyama this season; really, the stats only begin to scratch the surface of how all-consuming a force the generational talent can be when he’s playing well on both ends.
It was also, without a doubt, an MVP-caliber performance. Wembanyama provided enormous value the likes of which only he is capable of providing. After the game, he spelled out that case as clearly as possible for the NBA world when asked by Jared Weiss of The Athletic for his three strongest arguments in support of his MVP case.
“I think right now, it is still reasonable there is a debate,” Wembanyama said. “My goal is to make sure there is no debate anymore at the end of the season. … My first [argument] would be that defense is 50% of the game and that is undervalued, so far, in the MVP race. I believe I’m the most impactful player defensively in the league. Second argument would be that we almost swept [the Thunder] in the season and we dominated them three times with their real team and four times with the, you know, more rotation players. My third argument would be that offense impact is not just points.”
Asked Wemby to provide his 3 campaign bullet points for why he should be MVP https://t.co/HjRppaPLfY pic.twitter.com/FHXrFMjAi3
— Jared Weiss (@JaredWeissNBA) March 24, 2026
It’s a good case. While Wembanyama doesn’t quite go bullet-for-bullet down the list of MVP requirements in the modern game—stats, wins and narrative—he comes pretty close.
His set of arguments sparked a wave of Wembanyama MVP discussion. His case has been hotly debated alongside that of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Dončić. But when trying to project how the race will shake out down the stretch of the season, there is one factor that keeps getting overlooked whenever Wembanyama’s candidacy is discussed: his age.
Why Wembanyama’s age shouldn’t be overlooked when discussing MVP case
When looking at Wembanyama’s MVP case in totality, it is important to acknowledge the factors he’s battling against. One of those factors is just how young the Spurs star is. It doesn’t preclude Wembanyama from winning the award, of course, but history shows players that young don’t take home MVP.
Wembanyama only turned 22 in January. That means he would be the youngest MVP in NBA history if he won this year’s award. Derrick Rose currently holds that honor after winning the 2011 MVP at 22 years, seven months old; he is the only player in league history to win MVP before turning 23. There is literally no precedent for a player as youthful as Wembanyama winning the biggest individual award in the sport. That reflects the simple reality that players that age just don’t win MVP.
Why have young up-and-coming stars almost never gotten the nod over an older candidate? It’s not because they are young. But 22-year-old NBA stars are just getting their first bite at the MVP apple, so to speak. The competition is often fierce enough that a relative lack of established track record can be used against them. There’s a risk of rewarding a flash-in-the-pan season that inspires hesitation in voters. Not to mention the human element of the voting process where the idea a youthful player has plenty of good years left may push voters to another equally deserving but older candidate.
Rose is the gold standard for young MVP candidates now, and he enjoyed a very particular set of circumstances to win at his age. He led the Bulls to 62 wins as the undisputed motor of the offense and averaged 25 points and seven assists per game with truly electrifying highlights. Rose was a national sensation. He also had the good fortune of going up against LeBron James in his first Miami season after two consecutive MVP wins—which meant voter fatigue combined with the “Heatles” narrative to form an anti-LeBron votex that year. That left a wide-open lane that Rose gladly stepped into, one that disappeared immediately as James won the next two MVPs.
The reasoning in the Rose case and at large is mostly all unquantifiable. But so is the formula behind MVP voting. We can best glean information about that formula from past results. And those past results tells us that, for one reason or another, young superstars very rarely win MVP.
Could Wembanyama become the youngest MVP ever?
Could Wembanyama break the trend? Absolutely. Unlike many young stars who are coming into their own, he isn’t playing for an average team with the freedom to do basically whatever he wants every night. The star center is the most important player on the second seed in the West, one of the only teams in the NBA believed to have a chance at unseating the reigning champions. Furthermore, his actual arguments as laid out above are quite solid.
Wembanyama’s three blocks per game (which leads the NBA) and various advanced defensive statistics back up his claim to the most impactful defensive player in the NBA; his individual defensive rating of 103.5 ranks third in the league and his 4.4 defensive win shares are more than any other player. His showings on that end of the floor can be equally as eye-popping as any offensive explosion from Dončić or SGA.
His Spurs should win nearly 60 games and, as noted by Wemby himself above, have plenty of statement victories over the best team in the NBA (as well as his chief MVP rival) in Oklahoma City. Despite all that he lags behind a bit in narrative—until recently, few expected the Spurs big man to even qualify for end-of-season awards. But there is no doubt among fans and media that Wembanyama is one of the best, most impactful players in basketball right now. That’s a lot of boxes that are checked, and he has a few more weeks remaining in the season to improve his odds.
The only real knock against the big man (if you can even call it that) is his scoring numbers. Wembanyama averages 24.3 points per game this year with above-average (but not outstanding) efficiency numbers. If he won MVP at that number, it would be the lowest PPG number for an MVP since Steph Curry’s win in 2015. Before him you’d have to go all the way back to Steve Nash’s two wins in the mid-aughts to find an MVP who averaged fewer than 24 points per game. Scoring numbers have always been a large part of any MVP discussion, but there’s been a particular emphasis in that department in the last decade; it makes for yet another trend Wembanyama is battling against.
There has never been a player in the NBA like Wembanyama and thus it would line up if he managed to pull off something never before seen in the NBA. But winning MVP is a tall task, one made all the taller with history working against him.
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