Six Premier League managers have already fallen as we approach the two-thirds stage of the 2025-26 season. Results this week could well shape how many more go before the season is out.
Newcastle United are winless in five after a critical defeat to Brentford on the weekend, leaving them 12th, and closer to the relegation zone than the top four. Tottenham, on the other hand, are yet to win a league game in 2026 despite encouraging European form.
Both Eddie Howe and Thomas Frank have risen to their current posts by merit, leading clubs into the Premier League for the first time in their respective histories, over-performing on smaller budgets and reduced expectations, before making the step up to Champions League teams — taking them there in Howe’s case.
And though Howe has been in position at Newcastle for much longer — the fourth-longest serving manager in the English top flight, having ended a 56-year trophy drought last season — he finds himself under pressure to find a result too as his team travel to take on Frank’s Tottenham tonight, saying at the weekend he was “not doing my job well enough”.
Frank has stated that his team are”desperate” for wins, while Howe has called tonight’s contest a “massive” game. Just what is going wrong at both teams, and where can this critical fixture be won and lost? The Athletic drills into the data to find out.
Wayward finishing and the search for creative spark
On paper, this is a clash between two of the most evenly-matched sides in the division; both have scored 35 Premier League goals this season, while Newcastle have conceded only one more than Tottenham with 36.
Digging into the underlying numbers, however, suggests that Newcastle have generated enough goalscoring opportunities to expect to outscore Frank’s side by 12 goals, while only Arsenal and Manchester City have conceded fewer expected goals (xG) going the other way.
As we can see from the visualisation below, Newcastle have been the fifth-strongest team in the division according to their expected goal difference, a solid indicator of team performance. Yet, through a combination of poor finishing and clinical opposition counters, they have been dragged down the table and closer to teams much weaker in attack and leakier in defence.
Howe has pointed to his team’s statistical underperformance throughout the season, watching on as his team miss big chances at key moments in games and throw away leads, having already dropped 19 points from winning positions. Their second-half display against Manchester City in the League Cup, in which they spurned two huge chances via Anthony Elanga and Yoane Wissa, was a source of particular frustration.
Newcastle have cycled through different options at centre-forward in an attempt to remedy the situation. Summer signing Nick Woltemade has faded since his fast start, struggling to cope with the physicality of Premier League defenders and failing to get into the box often enough. Wissa has not looked sharp, while even Anthony Gordon has been trialled through the middle. Will Osula brings high-intensity running from the bench, but without the consistency in front of goal.
It all means that Newcastle have been more reliant on set-pieces, with six of their nine Premier League goals in 2026 arriving after dead-ball deliveries. Howe needs more from his finishers on the break.
Spurs, on the other hand, simply aren’t creating enough to merit more in attack. No team have over-performed their expected goals more, a charge led by goalscoring centre-backs Cristian Romero and Mickey van de Ven who have popped up with towering headers and snapshots from knockdowns and set-pieces.
Season-long injuries to the squad’s most gifted technicians from open play, Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison, have not helped. But there are well-documented issues with progressing the ball through midfield that are yet to be addressed, meaning that Frank’s side are similarly dependant on set-pieces to get the ball close to the opposition goal.
Injuries… and lots of them
When it rains, it pours. Frank has particular reason to curse his luck.
Alongside his sidelined creators, a hamstring injury for Mohammed Kudus cut off Spurs’ most reliable supply line up the pitch, a winger who is adept at receiving long passes with his back to goal and bringing others into play. The player responsible for almost half those searching forward passes into the Ghanaian, Pedro Porro, has also missed the last three games with a similar strain.
Kudus’ injury and the return of Destiny Udogie prompted a tweak to the system, as Spurs switched to a back three to allow the left-back to push on. There have been positive signs — width from those wing-backs has allowed both Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert the freedom to drift inside, a role that has particularly suited Simons. Dominic Solanke’s return up top has also helped the ball to stick, with more opportunities for those creative No 10s to pick up the ball in advanced areas.
As we can see from the passing network against Burnley, both Simons and Odobert were involved from inverted roles, while Conor Gallagher is given freedom to make late runs beyond the last line with Yves Bissouma holding position.
Again, injuries have limited the effectiveness of the new shape. The injured Porro was replaced momentarily by Djed Spence, who has since been covered for by Archie Gray, a midfielder who is not so natural when it comes to bombing down the line and whipping in crosses.
On the opposite side, Frank confirmed that Udogie will be out for “four to five weeks”, leaving few options to play that left wing-back role. With Romero suspended after his red card at Manchester United, there are even fewer options at centre-back, with Joao Palhinha already filling in.
Frank may have to return to a back four for the visit of Newcastle. Even when progress looks to be made, availability forces the manager’s hand.
Vulnerability to counter-attacks
No team have conceded more xG from Opta-defined fast breaks than Newcastle this season, and the weekend’s defeat by Brentford made those defensive deficiencies alarmingly clear.
Howe’s side are not afraid to commit players forward for quick attacks, but there is a lack of organisation and an ability to recover, particularly when Sandro Tonali ventures from his anchoring midfield role.
In the below sequence, for example, Tonali takes over from Jacob Murphy and carries the ball into the box, but sees his cut-back intercepted by Vitaly Janelt. In frame two, we see Murphy and Joe Willock left exposed with four players inside the penalty area as Brentford look to move the ball forward with speed.
Igor Thiago provides the out-ball, bringing a long pass under control and spinning to find Michael Kayode, one of two Brentford players who have raced through midfield and left markers behind. Kayode eventually finds Ouattara, who pulls back for Mathias Jensen to win a penalty.
The second half presents another example, as Howe sacrificed Willock for winger Elanga in an attacking half-time switch.
Once again, Tonali is out wide with Elanga on the overlap, but the Italian’s pass into Wissa is intercepted by the defender.
Only Bruno Guimaraes has stayed back in midfield, and the Brazilian is on hand as the ball pops out to Jensen. However, winger Harvey Barnes is not alert to the lay off, allowing Janelt to receive the ball and drive away, leaving six Newcastle players in his wake.
The irony is that Frank’s preferred play-style, hitting hard and fast on the break and isolating his centre-forwards against defenders with long passes, would hurt this Newcastle side in their current state. At Spurs, however, particularly at home, the manager has struggled to balance the demand for attractive, possession-heavy football with incisive attacking play, leading to a situation in which his team is usually less effective in front of his own fans.
It presents a fascinating, must-win contest for both sides, with gaping weaknesses there to be exploited.