ZT details his best player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s game between the Thunder and the Jazz.
The final game on Sunday’s NBA schedule has some interesting storylines as the rolling Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City at 8:00 p.m. ET.
While the Thunder have looked unstoppable, they will be without superstar point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the first time this season, which makes this matchup an intriguing one against a spry Jazz squad. With storylines abounding on both sides of the matchup, let’s jump in and highlight a few player prop bets that stand out as strong plays from both sides of this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Even with SGA out, the Thunder are still 10.5-point favorites on the road in Utah, with the game total set at 234.5.
The Thunder last played on Friday when they dispatched the Mavericks to improve to 22-1. One of their 22 wins came in Utah, 144-112 against the Jazz just over two weeks ago. On the other side, the Jazz are 8-14 after losing on Friday against the Knicks.
In what should be a nice capstone to all the sports action of the day, here are my top three player prop bets from this Western Conference matchup.
Thunder vs. Jazz Best Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Chet Holmgren over 20.5 points (-101)
The two players who are most likely to step up without SGA are Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Williams is averaging 16 points per game in his four games since returning from injury, but his over/under is inflated to 23.5. Holmgren’s also went up but only to 20.5, which isn’t unreasonable at all since he has averaged 18.2 points per game on the season.
Holmgren already went over this line in two of his last four games and in seven of his last 13.
He only played 27 minutes against the Jazz in their first meeting this year, scoring 11 points. Since the Jazz have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to power forwards, though, Holmgren should be able to step up and take on more scoring load against the Jazz on Sunday.
Ace Bailey over 12.5 points (-106)
Bailey could get more work depending on the status of Lauri Markkanen (illness), who was added to the injury report as questionable before Sunday night’s game.
The No. 5 overall pick has scored at least 13 points in three of his last four games and six of his last nine. He usually gets plenty of minutes and opportunities regardless of the game script, and he had 15 points in 21 minutes in the first matchup between these teams.
If Markkanen is out or limited, that would leave even more work for Bailey to pick up. In his time without Markkanen on the floor, his usage rate rises by 2.4 percentage points to 21.25%. Even if he doesn’t get that extra usage, Bailey has a good chance to get at least 13 points, but the extra work would tilt this prop even more towards the over.
Jaylin Williams under 3.5 assists (-122)
Just to be sure that we’re on the same page, this is Jaylin Williams (the center) not Jalen Williams (the guard/forward). Jaylin Williams has been getting more playing time with Isaiah Hartenstein injured, but he has still has under 3.5 assists in each of his last five games, even with extra minutes..
He has only gone over this prop line twice in his last 10 games and in eight of his 22 games this season. He did go over this line in the first matchup, handing out six assists in that contest.
Without SGA running the show, more assists will be available for the rest of the team, but I don’t see Jaylin Williams running point, so I’m not sure inflation of this line makes sense. I think he’ll end up under this total even if he does get extra time.
Bonus Parlay Pick: Aaron Wiggins under 2.5 3PM (-196)
If you’re looking for a fourth leg for your Same Game Parlay or SGPx, you can add in this Aarron Wiggins under to get to +750, as you can see below.
Wiggins has made just one 3-pointer in each of his three games since returning from an extended absence and is playing limited minutes off the bench. He will likely get more work without SGA, but this still seems like a big reach for him to go over 2.5 3PM.
