Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder have clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, giving them very little incentive in the final two games of the regular season.
So, OKC is set as a massive road underdog on Friday night against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, who are still in the mix for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. The Thunder won’t have most of their main rotation players, including SGA, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace and more.
Denver has won 10 games in a row, and it’s looking more and more like a true threat to win the NBA Finals with the three best teams in the league (Denver, OKC and San Antonio) all in the West.
Jokic has a chance to win the MVP this season, but Gilgeous-Alexander has taken a massive lead in the latest betting odds with just two games to play.
Here’s a look at the odds for Friday’s game, as well as my favorite prop bet and game pick.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
- Thunder +7.5 (-110)
- Nuggets -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Thunder: +230
- Nuggets: -305
Total
- 225.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Thunder vs. Nuggets How to Watch
- Date: Friday, April 10
- Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
- Venue: Ball Arena
- How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local), Altitude
- Thunder record: 64-16
- Nuggets record: 52-28
Thunder vs. Nuggets Injury Reports
Thunder Injury Report
- Alex Caruso – out
- Thomas Sorber – out
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – out
- Isaiah Hartenstein – out
- Chet Holmgren – out
- Isaiah Joe – out
- Ajay Mitchell – out
- Cason Wallace – out
- Jalen Williams – out
- Jaylin Williams – out
Nuggets Injury Report
- Aaron Gordon – questionable
- Nikola Jokic – questionable
- Jamal Murray – questionable
- Peyton Watson – out
- Spencer Jones – out
Thunder vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets
Note: These player prop picks were made before odds were released and are based on past player performance.
Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet
- Jamal Murray UNDER Points
This season, Murray has scored 12, 39 (in overtime) and 21 points in three meetings with the Thunder.
OKC has the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA this season, and even if it ends up short-handed on Friday, it still has a ton of elite wing and guard defenders to throw at Murray.
Murray is averaging 25.4 points per game this season, but he’s fallen short of that number in 11 of 20 games since March 1, despite averaging 25.6 points per game. OKC is allowing an NBA-best 22.62 points per game to opposing point guards this season.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick
There’s a clear motivation factor in this game that I can’t overlook, and with just two games left in the regular season, that matters a little more than some season-long numbers. So, I’m staying away from either side, especially since Denver has won 10 in a row, moving to 14 games over .500 at home.
The OVER is an interesting play with the Thunder already locked into the No. 1 seed, as the Nuggets have hit the OVER more than any team in the league (50-30) this season while OKC has also hit the OVER in the majority of its games.
These teams combined for 232, 248 and 255 points this season, and Denver’s defense has been really shaky this season (21st in defensive rating).
Denver has the highest scoring offense in the NBA this season, and the Thunder clock in at No. 5. With so many players out, I’m expecting an up-and-down game on Friday.
Pick: OVER 225.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $300 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet and that bet wins.