We don’t get this every year (or even many years): Some of the highest-projected picks in June’s NBA Draft are still playing in the Sweet 16.
We’ve got it this year, and it has set up some great matchups and plenty of players to watch. Here are just some of the things we will have our eyes on this week, starting with two really great matchups.
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Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas) vs. Brayden Burries (Arizona)
Darius Acuff Jr. has helped his stock in this draft and maybe moved himself into the top five because starting with the SEC Tournament and through the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, he has averaged 30.2 points and 7.2 assists through five games. Plus, he’s just fun to watch — Allen Iverson wrote on Instagram Acuff was the “next him.” The other comps his supporters like to use are Damian Lillard or Stephon Marbury.
What do all of those guys have in common? They are undersized point guards who are poor defenders — and Acuff is those things too (he is officially 6’3″, but most expect him to measure a couple of inches shorter at the NBA Draft Combine). It is increasingly hard to thrive in the NBA as a small point guard who doesn’t defend. That’s why most teams don’t have Acuff higher than fifth on their draft boards, something NBC’s Grant Liffman reported on NBA Showtime, and it echoes what I have heard as well.
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Acuff can help his case going up against a very good, No. 1 seed Arizona team led by another first-round point guard in Brayden Burries. This is just a great contrast of styles. Burries isn’t flashy, he is more old school, but he does a lot of things well and is efficient. He’s the kind of guy you can see stepping in and helping an NBA team immediately as a rotation guard because he can play on and off the ball, knock down catch-and-shoot jumpers, and get downhill off screens, but also has a midrange pull-up game. He could have a big day against Acuff and help his draft stock, too.
Keaton Wagler (Illinois) vs. Kingston Flemings (Houston)
There is a group of guards that are going to go in the top 10 in the draft — Acuff, Kingston Flemings, Keaton Wagler and Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville, he missed the tournament with an injury). This game has two of them going head-to-head and will draw a lot of scouts’ attention.
Wagler has been one of the great stories of the college basketball season, an unheralded 6’6″ guard/wing who led Illinois to the best offense in the nation (126.1 offensive rating) and pushed himself into the lottery, averaging 17.7 points per game while dishing out 4.3 assists a game and shooting 41% from 3-point range.
However, Wagler has struggled at times against pressure defenses. Now he goes up against Flemings and a Kelvin Sampson-coached Houston team that does high-pressure defense better than any team in the land. What scouts and GMs want to see in the NCAA Tournament is how players handle high-pressure situations. This game is exactly that for Wagler, and a lot of people will be watching.
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Flemings has a lot of fans in NBA front offices. He’s a 6’4″ point guard with an explosive first step and the ability to get around people and to the rim. He’s used that and a steady jumper to average 16.5 points and 5.4 assists per game, while shooting 37.6% from 3-point range. Can he keep that up as the lights get brighter?
Cameron Boozer, Duke
It’s not like Boozer played poorly the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament: 20.5 points and 12 rebounds per game, shooting 52.4%, and he had some steals and blocks while leading his team to the Sweet 16. But Siena and TCU — and Virginia in the ACC Tournament — seemed to slow the projected top-three pick down, make things difficult for him. NBA personnel noticed, and not everyone is as high on him because of concerns about his level of athleticism (the analytics guys tend to be bigger fans). Boozer is a high-IQ player who does so many things well, but he’s not an explosive athlete by NBA standards, and that has seemed to show.
Now he and the Blue Devils face a St. John’s team that can throw a very athletic defender at him in Dillon Mitchell, and you can bet Rick Pitino is going to dial up the pressure. How does Boozer handle that? Can he show another gear we have not seen so far in the tournament?
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That said, Boozer is a lock to be a top-four pick in June because he is so good and rock solid, his floor is just so high that he’s not going to be a bad pick. The question is, how high is his ceiling?
Bennett Stirtz, Iowa
Stirtz is the kind of point guard coaches love because he just knows how to play the game. The 22-year-old, 6’4″ point guard is averaging 20 points and 4.5 assists a game, shooting 37.6% from 3-point range, and he’s doing it with one of the slowest-paced, most deliberate offenses in basketball. Stirtz fits the mold of the kind of player teams take a long look at in the second half of the first round: A high-IQ player who can plug-and-play as guard depth off the bench.
What to watch in the Sweet 16 is how he handles pressure — he and slow-it-down Iowa are taking on a Nebraska team that wants to shoot 3s and play fast. Stirtz handled the pressure well against Florida in upsetting the No. 1 seed (he scored 13 and had the assist on the game-winner). Can he do it again?
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Dailyn Swain, Texas
Swain is exactly the kind of player who can most help his draft stock in the tournament. The 6’8″ wing is projected to go in the mid-20s and could become a two-way rotation player in the league (comps often used are Jared McCain or Naji Marshall, although that would be his high-end outcome). He averaged 17.4 points and 7.5 rebounds a game for the Longhorns this season and showed he could get downhill and to the rim, but there are questions about his jump shot. Teams are watching him in this tournament to see how he performs under pressure. The bigger question is, will he stay in the NBA Draft or go back to college for his senior season?