A significant downturn in tourism demand across the Gulf is redirecting international travelers toward Europe, with Greece emerging as one of the main beneficiaries of the shift.
Travel analysts warn the decline could cost the Gulf region between $34 billion and $56 billion in visitor spending in 2026, as safety concerns and travel uncertainty push tourists to reconsider their holiday plans.
According to industry research cited by Reuters, the region could see between 23 million and 38 million fewer international visitors this year, representing an 11% to 27% drop from previous forecasts.
Travel Cancellations Surge
The change in traveler behavior is already visible across airlines, hotels, and short-term rental platforms.
Vacation rental cancellations in the United Arab Emirates reportedly more than doubled within a single day after tensions escalated in the Middle East.
Airlines are also seeing demand collapse. Budget carrier Ryanair said bookings to Middle Eastern destinations have fallen sharply, with many travelers instead booking trips to southern Europe.
Travel companies say Greece and Portugal are among the biggest beneficiaries, as tourists swap Gulf city breaks for Mediterranean holidays.
Leisure Travelers Changing Plans First
Short-haul leisure travelers — couples, families, and spring holidaymakers — appear to be the first to cancel or redirect trips to Gulf destinations such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.
Many of these travelers have flexible travel dates and are choosing destinations where travel conditions appear more predictable.
Another group reconsidering plans is the stopover traveler, who traditionally uses Gulf hubs as connecting points between Europe and Asia. When uncertainty increases, travelers often remove the stopover rather than cancel the entire journey.
Greece Could See Tourism Boost
Tour operators say the shift is already strengthening demand for Mediterranean destinations, particularly Greece, where tourism remains a key pillar of the economy.
Destinations including Athens, Santorini, Mykonos, and Crete are expected to benefit from redirected demand as travelers continue to seek/ warm-weather destinations within Europe.
Industry experts warn the demand shift could tighten hotel availability and push prices higher across southern Europe during the upcoming peak summer season.
Recovery Depends on Confidence
Experts say tourism in the Gulf will only begin to recover once traveler confidence stabilizes.
Signs of recovery would include declining cancellation rates, improved airline bookings, and stronger forward-demand signals from tour operators.
Until those indicators appear, analysts say the tourism downturn should be viewed as an ongoing confidence shock rather than a short-term disruption.
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