For a ship, the tipping point is where it tips to one side to the point that it flips over. Earth processes or systems have tipping points that, once passed, cannot be reversed in human time scales. Earth’s tipping points are like dominoes that have been lined up. When the first one tips over, there are cascading effects in which other tipping points may be triggered. Scientists in the United States, the U.K., Germany and Austria recently wrote a joint paper about sixteen tipping points for the Earth. No one knows precisely where those points are, or what cascading effects passing one of the points will have on which of the others; but they know enough about them to be certain that the need for further research is urgently needed.
The Earth’s primary domino/tipping point is excess heat. The fact that certain gases measurably trap heat from the sun in the earth’s atmosphere has been proven since the 1850’s. The release by human activity of these gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, has increased their concentration in the atmosphere to the highest level in 2 million years. Because it takes time for the gases to accumulate heat from the sun, the atmosphere and the oceans, the heat will continue to increase. It is hoped that if greenhouse gas emissions are stopped, Earth’s temperature will increase no more than 2 degrees Celsius. However, the current track is for it to increase 3 degrees or more.
Because there are huge gaps in the knowledge of how and under what circumstance changes of Earth processes can amplify each other, research is vital. It is critically important to determine, as much as possible, where each tipping point is. Unfortunately, Trump is shutting down the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, a premier facility focusing on climate, weather and atmospheric science. In addition, Trump has ordered utility companies to keep coal fired plants operating that even they want to shut down because they can produce electricity in other ways at lower cost. Coal systems are not only relatively expensive, but they also release the most greenhouse gases. Trump has offered grants to corporations to build new coal fired plants. He has fought to stop construction of approved solar and wind power facilities, which produce the least expensive electricity for consumers and businesses.
If, in the future, people find themselves in a “hothouse” climate, they will blame Trump, and the Republicans in Congress, as well as the oligarchs and fossil fuel corporations that funded their political campaigns. However, it will be too late to do anything about it, other than curse those who destroyed the aspects of Creation that made Earth perfect for people.
Harvey Perry,
Westerly