US strikes in Iran could see oil prices jump $10 to $20 or more with no deescalation, Trump says Khamenei is dead
The US and Israel struck Iran early Saturday morning in what President Trump said was a bid to destroy the country’s nuclear program and potentially remove the current regime from power. The move triggered immediate retaliation and may provoke a wider conflict that poses serious risk for the oil markets.
The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during the strikes, according to early reports from Reuters, Axios, and CNN citing sources within the US government.
Trump said on Truth Social that Khamenei was dead, but did not provide further details, Reuters reported.
Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, had jumped by roughly 2.9% to close above $72.80 on Friday, while those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) had moved up by a slightly smaller 2.8% to trade above $67 by Friday’s close.
Without signs of deescalation over the weekend, prices could surge upward by as much as $10 to $20 per barrel when the market reopens Sunday night, Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told Yahoo Finance.
“Given the scale of retaliation, most of the strategic initiative now lies with Iran,” León said. “How Tehran chooses to respond over the next 24-72 hours — especially toward energy infrastructure or regional shipping — will be the primary driver of near-term oil market dynamics.”
Throughout Saturday morning, the US and Israel launched dozens of air strikes into the Iranian capital Tehran and other major cities across the country after what were seen as last-ditch talks between US and Iranian negotiators on Thursday ended with no deal. The Oman foreign minister, serving as mediator in the talks, said on Face the Nation Friday that he believed “progress” had been made and that a deal was within reach.
Iran immediately retaliated against the US and Israeli strikes, launching missiles against both US military assets and infrastructure throughout other Gulf states such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, according to news reports from the region. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister claimed in a statement that its capital Riyadh and the country’s oil-rich provinces in the east had been targeted.
Iranian missile attacks have reportedly targeted U.S. military facilities throughout the Middle East, including the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and others in Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain, according to The New York Times.
While no signs of immediate deescalation could push to $10 to $20 prices per barrel, León said, a wider conflict involving oil infrastructure throughout the Gulf “would push prices even higher.”
In a speech posted to Truth Social, President Trump said the US’ “massive and ongoing operation” seeks to not only destroy Iran’s nuclear armament capacity, but to also annihilate the country’s Navy and destabilize terrorist proxy groups throughout the region that receive significant financial backing from Iran.
Over the past two months, the US has sent a massive amount of military firepower to the Gulf region, including the largest air power armada amassed in the Middle East since the US’ 2003 invasion of Iraq, sending oil prices upward as traders priced in significant geopolitical risk premiums.
While Iran has never before fully closed the waterway, and several analysts told Yahoo Finance such a move would be effectively impossible, Iran has before attacked oil tankers crossing through the Strait and laid mines throughout its waters, and any disruption would add significant risk and shipping premiums to oil and gas prices as barrels are diverted.
Demonstrators chant slogans as they wave Iranian flags in a demonstration in support of the government and against U.S. and Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
In previous conflicts, including a series of air strikes last summer by the US and Israel that struck several nuclear enrichment sites in Iran, oil prices immediately rallied but pulled back and renormalized over the next few days as retaliation remained muted. Initial reports suggest that Iran’s retaliation this time is much wider than in the attacks last summer.
The OPEC+ cartel, of which Iran is a founding member, is expected to have its monthly meeting on Sunday, and rumors in the oil industry have suggested that the bloc may opt to increase its production quotas by a larger margin than the previously expected 137,000 barrels per day.
If the cartel were to raise production quotes, the move could “mute some upside pressure on prices Monday morning, but only marginally in the face of heightened geopolitical risk,” Rystad’s León said.
Iran produces roughly 3.4 million barrels per day, accounting for around 4% of the world’s oil supply, and exports roughly 1 million to 2 million barrels per day, according to Kpler, with most of those sanctioned shipments going to China.
While President Trump did not specifically say Saturday morning that the US is directly seeking to topple the ruling regime, controlled by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the president said during his speech that the country’s armed forces must choose between surrender or “certain death” and encouraged Iranian protesters to overthrow their government.
Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.
