Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. Victor Wembanyama made his case for MVP this past week, and below, we’ll put his criteria under a microscope.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis as a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
MVP
Honorable mentions: Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
5. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers (+800 to win, previously honorable mention)
Cade Cunningham has a collapsed lung, and it could keep him out for the rest of the regular season. If that’s the case, Adam Silver’s 65-game rule would make the Pistons star ineligible for regular-season awards. Dončić has the third-best betting odds currently, as the Lakers have surged and he continues to lead the league in scoring. Dončić has been the tough one to keep out of the top five in this space week after week because he’s been excellent. Unfortunately, Cunningham’s injury opens up a spot.
4. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+25000 to win, previously fifth)
There were a lot of questions about what Brown’s production would be once Jayson Tatum was back. Other than 3-point shooting (which is an issue for the Celtics across the board during this stretch), we haven’t seen much of a downgrade in Brown’s numbers since Tatum’s return. Here are the splits:
- Pre-Tatum: 55 games, 34.3 minutes, 28.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.6 turnovers and 48.0/34.8/77.9 shooting splits.
- Post-Tatum: 10 games, 34.5 minutes, 26.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 3.6 turnovers and 45.6/30.0/89.5 shooting splits.
That’s pretty impressive to see such a big chunk of possessions now going to another initiator, as you’d expect with Tatum back, and Brown is still able to keep that production super high. His play on both ends of the floor has to land him on this ballot, no matter what. I doubt he gets higher than fourth or fifth, but he belongs.
3. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+8000 to win)
I legitimately gasped at the betting odds when I saw Jokić had fallen all the way down to the territory of not actually being considered. I’m not so certain this is down to a two-person race, and he’s not off the board, so it isn’t a question of whether or not the markets think he’ll be eligible. Cunningham is no longer on the board because of that very thing. Jokić has still been awesome since returning from injury, but he hasn’t been nearly as efficient. He’s also been pretty brutal on defense, as he either doesn’t appear to be in great shape or maybe his knee isn’t fully healthy. Jokić is a pretty underrated defender in general the past couple years, but we’re not seeing good defense out of him the last couple months. Big Honey’s betting odds plummeted from +1800 to +8000 this last week, even though his numbers over those four games were 22.3 points, 13.0 rebounds, 13.7 assists and 58.3 percent shooting in a 4-0 week. It’s confusing.
2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+1000)
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-750 to win)
Wembanyama gave his impassioned case for wanting and deserving the MVP award this past week, and it was a breath of fresh air. So often, we tell players not to openly want awards and that it’s selfish. I’m not sure what could be selfish about wanting to win MVP or any individual award because it’s pretty difficult to receive it without being a tremendous boost to your team’s success. I loved hearing that from Wemby and wish more players would cut the nonchalant, PR-laden schtick when it comes to discussing awards.
Here, I wanted to go over Wemby’s three criteria for the award and use it as a comparison tool for him and Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, and Jokić, a three-time MVP.
1. “My first one would be that defense is 50 percent of the game, and that is undervalued, so far, in the MVP race.”
I would tend to agree that defense can be underrated in the MVP race. You could have made that argument when Kawhi Leonard finished a distant third to Russell Westbrook and James Harden in 2017. There are times that I’m sure Philadelphia fans would have argued that in favor of Joel Embiid over someone like Jokić. Let’s compare the three top candidates here:
- Wemby: He’s easily the best defensive player in the league and leading the NBA in blocks by a lot. The Spurs give up 10.2 more points per 100 possessions when Wemby isn’t in the game. They have the best defense in the league when he’s on the court. Players shoot 8.9 percentage points worse when he defends the shot.
- SGA: He’s an extremely underrated defensive guard and is far closer to making All-Defense than most assume. He gets about 1.5 steals and a block per game. His team is slightly better defensively without him on the floor, but they’re just good at defense no matter what.
- Jokić: There was a much bigger difference in the team defense with Jokić on the floor versus off before his knee injury in late December. He’s a very good position defender in general, but he’s struggled to defend since returning from injury. He can’t compare with Wemby and SGA defensively, though.
2. “Second argument would be that we almost swept OKC in the season, and we dominated them three times with their real team and four times with the, you know, more rotation players.”
It is true. One of the big turning points in the Thunder’s season was the Spurs shattering the air of invincibility OKC had going into the NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas. The Thunder were 24-1 and looking like they might challenge history. Things changed dramatically when the Spurs burst that bubble and ended up beating them three times in a short amount of time. I’m not sure how much that should factor into MVP voting, but there is an argument of value in that sense of changing OKC’s season, I guess.
Wemby has also not played against Denver this season. SGA is 3-0 against the Nuggets this season, so how much does that factor in when discussing these three? Has this become an accidental game of Rock-Paper-Scissors?
3. “My third argument would be that offense impact is not just points.”
I agree with this great point. Offense is more than just scoring points. The playmaking in setting up your teammates is a big factor. The gravity you have in taking help defenders away from your teammates to create open shots is a big deal, too. However, all three of these guys definitely do more than score:
- Wemby: He averages 24.3 points by himself. He only creates 5.5 points per game with his assists. The Spurs’ offense drops by 6.5 points per 100 possessions when he isn’t on the floor. Their true shooting goes from 61.7 to 57.1 percent when he’s on the bench. But you have to factor in his gravity, as well, because he puts so much pressure on the interior defense. After all, he can seemingly dunk it from mind-boggling distances. The Spurs are pretty middle of the road in wide-open 3-point attempts with the 14th most.
- SGA: He averages 31.5 points just by himself. He creates 17.5 points off assists, nearly pushing his total offensive production to 50 points each night. The Thunder’s offense drops by 10.4 points per 100 possessions when he isn’t on the floor. Their true shooting goes from 61.6 to 57.1 percent when he’s on the bench. And their turnover rate jumps from 11.0 percent to 14.3 percent when he’s not in the game. The Thunder generate the second-most wide-open shots and the fifth-most wide-open 3-pointers in the NBA this season. Most of that is the opposing defense swarming SGA as much as possible.
- Jokić: He averages 27.9 points just by himself. He also leads the league in points created by assists with 27.8 points per game. It’s wild that it’s so even at such a high volume. The Nuggets’ offense drops by 13.1 points per 100 possessions when he isn’t on the floor. Their true shooting goes from 64.1 to 57.6 percent when he’s on the bench. It’s hard to argue that anybody makes a bigger impact on the offensive end than Jokić.
These are all pretty interesting arguments within the criteria set out by the Spurs’ superstar. Wemby is probably closer to SGA offensively than SGA is to Wemby defensively. I don’t know if you weigh those things equally, and voters tend not to. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen here. I’d probably give the edge to SGA’s consistency this season over Wemby’s ascension. However, sometimes a well-timed surge in the second half of a season can give a player a chance to snatch the award away. That might happen with Wemby.
Defensive Player of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
3. Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves (+10000 to win)
2. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (+1400 to win)
1. Wembanyama, Spurs (-5000 to win)
Wembanyama has become such a massive favorite for this award that I’m not convinced it will even be on the board in a week. Over the last two months, Wembanyama has averaged 3.7 blocks and 1,3 steals in 28 games. The Spurs are a seemingly impossible team to efficiently score against when he’s on the floor. You see players literally bail out, offensively, from even attempting to attack when he’s near. He makes NBA players decide there is no shot for them in transition when he’s back, and they’re just playing a game of hot potato. Recently, Jaylen Brown was streaming, and he had this to say about Wemby.
“That boy, Wemby, is a problem. Big problem. When I say I’m the best two-way player in the league, it’s not counting Wemby. Like, Wemby don’t count. Wemby don’t count. He’s not even human. I’m the best human player, two-way. But Wemby is different, bro.”
Wembanyama might eventually end up with the most Defensive Player of the Year awards in league history. This is the first of those.
Rookie of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+25000 to win)
2. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (+145 to win)
1. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (-200 to win)
Flagg continued to battle since coming back from his foot injury, and he’s showing an all-around game you want to see with scoring, playmaking, rebounding and defense. But his shooting percentages have been brutal at 42.9 percent from the field and 21.2 percent from deep. He’s been excellent at the free-throw line (83.7 percent) and gets there 4.5 times per game since his return. But trying to make up ground in meaningless games while not being efficient is tough against what Knueppel continues to do in games that have a lot at stake, as Charlotte battles for postseason positioning. This is close enough that the meaning of each game is something that should be considered.
It seems Cooper Flagg has been playing catch-up in the Rookie of the Year race since returning from injury. (Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
Sixth Man of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Tim Hardaway Jr., Nuggets | Reed Sheppard, Rockets
3. Naz Reid, Timberwolves (+800 to win, previously honorable mention)
2. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Heat (+270 to win)
1. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (-115 to win)
Sheppard and Reid are both struggling lately, but I’ll go with the body of work the Wolves reserve has had as a better case for the award than Sheppard. It’s close, though. Johnson is finally the betting favorite in this race, as the public seems to have finally noticed what he’s doing for the second-best team in the league. Jaquez is very much in this, but we’ve had the Spurs reserve as the guy for a few weeks now.
Coach of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns | Charles Lee, Hornets
3. J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons (-190 to win)
2. Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+1600 to win)
1. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics (+175 to win)
I don’t want to keep discounting the coaching job Bickerstaff has done. I think his winning would be very deserving. But this award so often goes to the team that surprised the most. The Pistons being the No. 1 seed was not projected, but it also doesn’t seem hard to imagine this season. Nobody had the Spurs as the second-best team in the league or close to it. Nobody had the Celtics being second in the Eastern Conference and within shouting distance of the No. 1 seed. Those two expectations being shattered give Johnson and Mazzulla a slight edge.
Most Improved Player
Two honorable mentions: Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks | Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
3. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks (+1300 to win)
2. Jalen Duren, Pistons (-130 to win, previously honorable mention)
1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks (+135 to win)
I removed Avdija from the top three because he’s had a pretty rough March since returning from injury. His field goal percentage has dropped a lot, and his 3-point percentage (20.8) makes you wonder if he’s trying to bank them in. Duren moves past Johnson because of what he’s doing without Cunningham in Detroit’s lineup. He’s been awesome in his extended leadership role and has 25.8 points, 10.6 rebounds and is making 64.7 percent from the field and 87.2 percent of his free throws on 9.4 attempts in those five games (Cunningham barely played in the game he got injured). But I still think Alexander-Walker is the pick here.