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Geopolitical uncertainty is steadily ramping up in 2026.
As of March, there are 46 active conflicts across 76 countries, according to online tracker Global Conflict Map (1). The Persian Gulf crisis takes much of the spotlight, but conflicts like the Afghanistan-Pakistan war (2), and U.S. strikes on Ecuador are flying under the radar (3).
If you think rising tensions could potentially spill over into World War III, you’re not alone. The vast majority of respondents in a Politico survey from the U.S., Canada, France, Germany and the U.K. said a global war was more likely than not in the next five years (4).
“I think we’re uncomfortably close to [WW3],” Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security advisor to President Obama, told Wired magazine in a recent interview (5). Rhodes estimates we’re already two-thirds of the way to global war, with China’s potential invasion of Taiwan representing the final third.
Although the future is difficult to predict, many investors may not know how to react if a global conflict were to erupt. According to legendary investor Warren Buffett, the answer is surprisingly simple: “I will still be buying the stock,” he told CNBC during a 2014 interview, referring to the stock market (6).
Here’s why the Oracle of Omaha prefers his favorite asset class even during unprecedented times.
In general, geopolitical tensions tend to reduce investors’ appetite for risk, which often pushes investors away from stocks and bonds, and toward assets such as gold and cash.
However, Buffett argues this is the wrong approach.
“You’re going to be a lot better off owning productive assets,” he explained. Buffett pointed out that the American stock market had risen during World War II, a clear sign that the value of productive businesses is durable enough to withstand the pressure from global conflict.
“In the five months following the attack on Pearl Harbor — which ushered in the United States’ involvement in World War II — the S&P 500 declined almost 17%,” states a Standard & Poor’s report published shortly after September 11, 2001 (7). “But by the time the war ended in 1945, the index had advanced 62% from its level on December 7, 1941.”
This remarkable endurance isn’t limited to just stocks. Farmland, real estate or any other asset class that generates a tangible return, Buffett believes, could be ideal for parking cash during global conflict.
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To be fair, past performance is not exactly an indicator of future returns, and it’s difficult to know how stocks, real estate and other productive assets will behave during a hypothetical World War III.
That’s where Moby comes in.
The platform offers expert research and precise recommendations from a team of hand-picked former hedge fund analysts. These suggestions could help you navigate a particularly treacherous market.
Over the past four years, Moby’s team has delivered over 400 stock picks that have beaten the S&P 500’s performance by an average of roughly 12% annually. They also offer a 30-day money-back guarantee.
Moby’s regular reports can help you become a smarter investor in just five minutes. Meanwhile, Buffett says the smartest thing investors can do during a potential global war is to avoid one specific asset class: cash.
By definition, a worldwide conflict would increase volatility and unpredictability. However, there is one thing Buffett believes investors should be expecting under such circumstances: inflation.
“The one thing you could be quite sure of is if we went into some very major war, the value of money would go down,” he told CNBC. “That’s happened in virtually every war that I am aware of.”
If you’re risk-averse, finding a good alternative for cash isn’t easy. Luckily, you don’t have to make these decisions alone. Advisor.com can help connect you with an expert near you for free.
How it works is simple: Just put in a bit of basic information about yourself, like you ZIP code, and what you’re looking for. Then Advisor.com will comb their database for a match. From there, you can book a free call with no obligation to hire so you can make sure you’re working with someone that you can trust.
Not only are these experts vetted based on track record, client ratios and regulatory background, they’re also fiduciaries which means they are legally required to act in your best interests.
Navigating a volatile market, especially during a global crisis, isn’t likely to be easy. But with the right advisor on your team, you can make savvy money moves with a little more confidence.
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We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
Global Conflict Map (1); Council on Foreign Relations (2); New York Times (3); Politico (4); Wired/YouTube (5); CNBC (6); Standard & Poor’s (7).
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
