Zach Thompson details his best player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s matchup between the Warriors and the Nuggets.
The NBA puts a bow on a big Sunday of action with a late-night matchup from the Mile High City, where the Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors. Both teams are gearing up for the playoffs, so let’s break down both sides of the contest and find a few strong player prop bets to back from the Warriors-Nuggets finale.
The Nuggets are 11.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a game total of 237.5 points. This is the fourth time these teams have met this season with the Warriors winning both of their home games and the Nuggets winning their one meeting in Denver.
The Nuggets have a much better record at 47-28, compared to 36-38 for the Warriors. The Nuggets are currently fourth in the Western Conference, while the Warriors have sunk to the No. 10 seed, just 1/2 game behind the Trail Blazers and looking bound for the Play-In Tournament. They can’t fall out of the postseason since the Grizzlies are 11 games behind them in the No. 11 spot, but they can improve their seeding with a strong finish. The Warriors have won three straight against soft opponents but are still only 4-8 over their last 12. On the other side, the Nuggets have won five straight and are 8-2 over their last 10.
On the injury report, the Warriors listed Stephen Curry, Al Horford and Moses Moody as out, while Will Richard, Quinten Post and Seth Curry are questionable. The Nuggets don’t have anyone on their injury report for this matchup.
Warriors vs. Nuggets Best Prop Bets
Draymond Green o19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)
Whether Post plays or not, Green should carry the workload against the Nuggets. He’ll be tangling with Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon, so he should be fired up to put together good numbers. He’s averaging 19.5 PRA (points, rebounds and assists) on the season, but he has been more involved and productive lately.
In his last 11 games, Green has at least 20 PRA in eight contests. He had exactly 20 PRA against the Wizards on Friday, producing six points, 10 assists and four boards. He has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last three games, and if he gets that much work again, he should find ways to contribute either points, rebounds or assists.
Green has faced the Nuggets twice this season, producing 27 and 29 PRA in the two matchups. Especially if Post gets the night off, Green should be busy alongside Kristaps Porzingis down low.
Christian Braun o10.5 Points (-112)
While Braun hasn’t had the breakthrough that the team was counting on when they traded Michael Porter Jr., he has been good enough to be a solid play at this prop line when healthy. He is averaging 11.6 points in 39 games this season.
On Friday, he scored only seven points in 22 minutes against the Jazz, but before that, he scored at least 11 points and went over this prop line in nine straight. He averaged 15.6 points in those nine games, shooting 58.7% overall from the field and 39.4% from long range.
Braun should be able to get to at least 11 points in this matchup against the Warriors. He had 12 and 18 points in his last two games against the Warriors.
De’Anthony Melton o21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
Melton has been very productive for the Warriors in their current rotation while dealing with so many absences. The 27-year-old has played 42 games for Golden State with averages of 13 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists for 18.7 PRA.
He sat out Friday’s game but is not on the injury report for Sunday’s contest, so he should be back in action and ready to carry the load with Moody out.
Over his last nine games, Melton has averaged 15.2 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.8 for 22.7 PRA. He went over this prop with 25+ PRA in five of those nine games. He only played one game against the Nuggets this year, and on Feb. 22, he had 26 PRA with 20 points, four rebounds and two assists to go with four steals to lead the Warriors to an upset win.
While he may not be able to duplicate that 20-point performance, he will have to carry enough work to add rebounds and assists to compensate. After sitting on Friday, look for Melton to be rested and ready enough to get over this prop on Sunday.
Bonus Parlay Pick: Jamal Murray o2.5 3PM (-151)
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) from this Sunday night’s matchup, one way to boost the odds even higher is to take the over on Murray’s three-pointers. Adding this as the fourth player prop into the mix boosts the SGP all the way up to +850 for these four Warriors-Nuggets bets.
Murray has made at least three three-pointers in four straight games and knocked down nine triples against the Mavericks and five three-pointers against the Jazz. Murray is averaging 3.2 3PM this season and made five three-pointers in his one home game against Golden State.
